Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history7/7
Usable Official Rating7/7
Informative pace profile7/7
Sectional coverageNot supplied
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 1 · Doncaster
2:00 Doncaster
Suit Direct At Meadowhall Apprentice Handicap
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 3.47 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
qitaal
21.0%Win
2
amidst the chaos
17.5%Win
Leader separation3.47pp
Race shape
Front end contested
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Negative
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderpoets dawnPossible leader
Pace pressureStrongFront end contested
Top threatproject geofin5/8 · Ability, Class, Shape, Trip
Best closeramidst the chaosFinishes well
Field abilitycanvasCompetitive
Race chaosChaotic87
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| qitaal | 0.31 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | -0.6Below field | Stable | Similar | 2/8 · FairClass, Trip | -0.28Weak finisher | Steady |
| amidst the chaos | 0.17 · #4Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | +0.4Competitive | Declining | Similar | 2/8 · FairAbility, Class | 0.26Finishes well | Steady |
| echalar | 0.10 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | -1.6Below field | Declining | Similar | 1/8 · FairClass | -0.07Neutral | Steady |
| canvas | 0.40 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +1.4Competitive | Declining | Similar | 2/8 · FairAbility, Class | -0.18Neutral | Steady |
| poets dawn | 0.43 · #1Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | -0.6Below field | Improving | Similar | 3/8 · LiveClass, Form, Trip | -0.17Neutral | Steady |
| project geofin | -0.07 · #7Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 2 | L3 drop 1 | +1.4Competitive | Declining | Stronger | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Shape, Trip | -0.07Neutral | Steady |
| moonjid | 0.12 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 2 | L2 drop 2 | L3 drop 1 | -0.6Below field | Declining | Stronger | 2/8 · FairClass, Trip | -0.26Weak finisher | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Doncaster 1m2f43y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 45 races
Going: Good To Firm7 runnersTurfStalls: Inside
LowA/E 0.87100 runners
MiddleA/E 1.1069 runners
HighA/E 1.0683 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 7 of 7 experienced runners
Archive coverage
7 of 7 runners
270 earlier WIN races matched
poets dawn · pre-off
Steamed 39 · Stable 28 · Drifted 61
128 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
poets dawn · in-play support
10%: 77 runs · 61%
25%: 57 runs · 45% · 50%: 25 runs · 20%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| qitaal | 40 | Average 4.4 Last 1 / 6 | 4.52 | Steamed 19 · Stable 5 · Drifted 16 (40 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 25 runs · 62% 25% shorter: 16 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 20% | Established2026-07-30 · Epsom |
| amidst the chaos | 16 | Average 4.1 Last 1 / 7 | 3.34 | Steamed 3 · Stable 2 · Drifted 9 (14 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 7 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 43% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 36% | Established2026-07-19 · Redcar |
| echalar | 18 | Average 6.9 Last 7 / 9 | 35.51 | Steamed 3 · Stable 3 · Drifted 11 (17 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 35% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 24% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 18% | Established2026-08-02 · Chester |
| canvas | 21 | Average 5.6 Last 4 / 15 | 9.80 | Steamed 8 · Stable 3 · Drifted 9 (20 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 9 runs · 45% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 30% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 15% | Established2026-07-25 · York |
| poets dawn | 134 | Average 6.5 Last 2 / 5 | 3.35 | Steamed 39 · Stable 28 · Drifted 61 (128 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 77 runs · 61% 25% shorter: 57 runs · 45% 50% shorter: 25 runs · 20% | Established2026-08-03 · Ripon |
| project geofin | 22 | Average 5.0 Last 12 / 17 | 38.56 | Steamed 5 · Stable 1 · Drifted 16 (22 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 9 runs · 41% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 27% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 18% | Established2026-05-13 · York |
| moonjid | 19 | Average 4.5 Last 3 / 5 | 6.25 | Steamed 8 · Stable 0 · Drifted 10 (18 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 11 runs · 61% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 39% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 17% | Established2026-07-26 · Pontefract |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
poets dawnPressure
qitaalamidst the chaoscanvaspoets dawnTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
echalarmoonjidClosers
amidst the chaosRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.6
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 1/2 · D 1/26 · G 0/8
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.31 · Finish -0.28
Connections
Steady
Charlie Johnston · Harry Vigors
Draw
Low · A/E 0.87
100 matched runners
Historical market
40 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.4
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.4
Recent
Declining
Trend -10
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 1/3 · D 0/0 · G 1/5
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.17 · Finish 0.26
Connections
Steady
Nigel Tinkler · Ethan Tindall
Draw
Low · A/E 0.87
100 matched runners
Historical market
16 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.1
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.6
Recent
Declining
Trend -10
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/3
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.10 · Finish -0.07
Connections
Steady
Ian Williams · Conor Whiteley
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.10
69 matched runners
Historical market
18 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.9
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.4
Recent
Declining
Trend -15
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 2/4 · D 0/1 · G 1/6
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.40 · Finish -0.18
Connections
Steady
Scott Dixon · Mikkel Mortensen
Draw
Low · A/E 0.87
100 matched runners
Historical market
21 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.6
Recent
Improving
Trend 4
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/2 · D 6/25 · G 4/27
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.43 · Finish -0.17
Connections
Steady
Tim Easterby · Jake Dickson(3)
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.10
69 matched runners
Historical market
134 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.5
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.4
Recent
Declining
Trend -22
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 2 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 1/5 · D 1/5 · G 1/4
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.07 · Finish -0.07
Connections
Steady
Geoff Oldroyd · Donagh Murphy(3)
Draw
High · A/E 1.06
83 matched runners
Historical market
22 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.6
Recent
Declining
Trend -4
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 drop 2 | L2 drop 2 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/1 · D 1/5 · G 1/5
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.12 · Finish -0.26
Connections
Steady
Michael Appleby · Toby Moore(5)
Draw
High · A/E 1.06
83 matched runners
Historical market
19 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.5
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 2 · Doncaster
2:30 Doncaster
Skopes At Meadowhall Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 39.20 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Moderate
54%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history4/4
Usable Official Rating2/4
Informative pace profile1/4
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
one of the boys
61.8%Win
2
wuood
22.6%Win
Leader separation39.20pp
Race shape
No clear leader
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureLight
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioEven
CollapseLow
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderone of the boysUnclear
Pace pressureLightNo clear leader
Top threatone of the boys2/8 · Ability
Best closerone of the boysFinishes well
Field abilityone of the boysDominant
Race chaosNormal36
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| one of the boys | -0.20 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +27.0Dominant | Stable | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility | 0.15Finishes well | Steady |
| wuood | 0.00 · #1Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| cercis | -0.20 · #2Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | —Unrated | Stable | Stronger | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.80Weak finisher | Quiet |
| hope and joy | -0.28 · #4Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | -27.0Below field | Stable | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.40Weak finisher | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Doncaster 7f6y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 52 races
Going: Good To Firm4 runnersTurfStalls: Stands' side
LowA/E 1.14120 runners
MiddleA/E 0.8982 runners
HighA/E 0.9295 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 4 of 4 experienced runners
Archive coverage
4 of 4 runners
9 earlier WIN races matched
one of the boys · pre-off
Steamed 2 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1
3 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
one of the boys · in-play support
10%: 1 runs · 33%
25%: 0 runs · 0% · 50%: 0 runs · 0%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| one of the boys | 3 | Average 2.3 Last 2 / 9 | 3.75 | Steamed 2 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (3 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-07-17 · Wolverhampton |
| wuood | 1 | Average 2.0 Last 2 / 4 | 8.40 | Steamed 0 · Stable 1 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 100% | Limited2026-03-05 · Newcastle |
| cercis | 2 | Average 5.5 Last 6 / 8 | 43.51 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 50% | Limited2026-07-21 · Nottingham |
| hope and joy | 3 | Average 8.7 Last 8 / 9 | 1000.00 | Steamed 0 · Stable 1 · Drifted 2 (3 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-07-07 · Wolverhampton |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
one of the boysPressure
No reliable signalTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
one of the boyswuoodcercisClosers
one of the boysRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +27.0
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/3 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.20 · Finish 0.15
Connections
Steady
Michael Bell · Jake Dickson(5)
Draw
Low · A/E 1.14
120 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.3
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Richard Hannon · Sean Levey
Draw
High · A/E 0.92
95 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend 1
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.20 · Finish -0.80
Connections
Quiet
Mrs Ilka Gansera-Leveque · Darragh Keenan
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.89
82 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -27.0
Recent
Stable
Trend -2
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/0
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.28 · Finish -0.40
Connections
Steady
Lisa Williamson · Oisin Mcsweeney
Draw
Low · A/E 1.14
120 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.7
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 3 · Doncaster
3:05 Doncaster
Meadowhall X Flannels Beauty Bar EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 11.91 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Limited
29%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history5/6
Usable Official Rating0/6
Informative pace profile0/6
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
noble prince
29.4%Win
2
son of a fish
17.5%Win
Leader separation11.91pp
Race shape
No clear leader
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureLight
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioEven
CollapseLow
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderminoUnclear
Pace pressureLightNo clear leader
Top threatnoble prince1/8 · Yard
Best closernoble princeNeutral
Field abilityUnratedInsufficient OR coverage
Race chaosNormal57
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| noble prince | 0.00 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | —Unrated | Unclear | Weak | 1/8 · FairYard | 0.00Neutral | Hot |
| son of a fish | 0.00 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| iwasjustsaying | 0.00 · #1Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| jessica | 0.00 · #2Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| mino | -0.20 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | —Unrated | Stable | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| minzazi | 0.00 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Doncaster 7f6y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 52 races
Going: Good To Firm6 runnersTurfStalls: Stands' side
LowA/E 1.14120 runners
MiddleA/E 0.8982 runners
HighA/E 0.9295 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Partial · 5 of 6 experienced runners
Archive coverage
5 of 6 runners
11 earlier WIN races matched
noble prince · pre-off
Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 4
4 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
noble prince · in-play support
10%: 3 runs · 75%
25%: 1 runs · 25% · 50%: 0 runs · 0%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| noble prince | 4 | Average 4.0 Last 3 / 6 | 7.78 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 4 (4 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 75% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 25% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-07-28 · Yarmouth |
| son of a fish | 2 | Average 6.0 Last 6 / 10 | 49.34 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-06 · Lingfield |
| iwasjustsaying | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| jessica | 1 | Average 5.0 Last 5 / 7 | 20.84 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-08-01 · Newmarket |
| mino | 2 | Average 5.0 Last 6 / 9 | 63.38 | Steamed 2 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-23 · Doncaster |
| minzazi | 2 | Average 5.0 Last 5 / 8 | 14.21 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-08-05 · Kempton |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
minoPressure
No reliable signalTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
noble princeson of a fishiwasjustsayingjessicaminominzaziClosers
No reliable signalRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Hot
Charlie Appleby · Connor Planas
Draw
Low · A/E 1.14
120 matched runners
Historical market
4 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Richard Hannon · Paul Mulrennan
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.89
82 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Charlie Johnston · Jack Mitchell
Draw
Low · A/E 1.14
120 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Kevin Philippart De Foy · Sam James
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.89
82 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend 1
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/1 · D 0/2 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.20 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Marco Botti · Jack Gilligan
Draw
High · A/E 0.92
95 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Richard Hannon · Sean Levey
Draw
High · A/E 0.92
95 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 4 · Doncaster
3:37 Doncaster
Phase Eight At Meadowhall Handicap
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 5.47 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history13/13
Usable Official Rating13/13
Informative pace profile13/13
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
imperial guard
16.7%Win
2
documenting
11.2%Win
Leader separation5.47pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureLight
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioEven
CollapseLow
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadersunriseontheboyneUnclear
Pace pressureLightLeader under pressure
Top threatimperial guard5/8 · Ability, Class, Form, Trip
Best closerthe childe of haleStrong finisher
Field abilityimperial guardStrong
Race chaosCompetitive67
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| imperial guard | 0.10 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | +4.5Strong | Improving | Similar | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Form, Trip | 0.07Late positive | Steady |
| documenting | 0.05 · #6Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | +3.5Strong | Declining | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Trip | 0.01Neutral | Steady |
| thapa vc | -0.13 · #13Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | +1.5Competitive | Stable | Weaker | 2/8 · FairAbility, Trip | 0.20Finishes well | Steady |
| age of baroque | -0.09 · #11Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class | -5.5Below field | Declining | Weaker | 1/8 · FairTrip | 0.07Late positive | Quiet |
| rock opera | -0.12 · #12Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 drop 3 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 2 | +4.5Strong | Declining | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class | 0.28Strong finisher | Steady |
| criminal shore | 0.14 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | +1.5Competitive | Improving | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Form | -0.20Weak finisher | Steady |
| bella bisbee | 0.16 · #2Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | +1.5Competitive | Declining | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Trip | -0.11Neutral | Steady |
| bright | 0.02 · #9Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +2.5Competitive | Declining | Similar | 2/8 · FairAbility, Class | 0.22Finishes well | Quiet |
| nyman | 0.03 · #8Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | +1.5Competitive | Improving | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Form, Trip | 0.18Finishes well | Steady |
| starliner | 0.13 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | -8.5Below field | Stable | Similar | 1/8 · FairTrip | -0.08Neutral | Steady |
| the childe of hale | -0.06 · #10Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -4.5Below field | Stable | Weaker | 1/8 · FairTrip | 0.40Strong finisher | Steady |
| war howl | 0.04 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | -1.5Below field | Declining | Similar | 2/8 · FairClass, Trip | -0.13Neutral | Steady |
| sunriseontheboyne | 0.24 · #1Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 2 | -0.5Below field | Declining | Similar | 2/8 · FairClass, Trip | -0.09Neutral | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Doncaster 7f6y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 44 races
Going: Good To Firm13 runnersTurfStalls: Stands' side
LowA/E 0.96213 runners
MiddleA/E 0.87191 runners
HighA/E 1.18200 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 13 of 13 experienced runners
Archive coverage
13 of 13 runners
512 earlier WIN races matched
thapa vc · pre-off
Steamed 22 · Stable 9 · Drifted 50
81 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
thapa vc · in-play support
10%: 43 runs · 53%
25%: 36 runs · 44% · 50%: 20 runs · 25%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| imperial guard | 31 | Average 2.8 Last 1 / 5 | 2.56 | Steamed 13 · Stable 0 · Drifted 12 (25 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 7 runs · 28% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 24% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 12% | Established2026-07-27 · Ayr |
| documenting | 78 | Average 7.6 Last 4 / 17 | 11.50 | Steamed 34 · Stable 8 · Drifted 31 (73 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 34 runs · 47% 25% shorter: 26 runs · 36% 50% shorter: 16 runs · 22% | Established2026-07-11 · Ascot |
| thapa vc | 86 | Average 4.3 Last 2 / 9 | 5.10 | Steamed 22 · Stable 9 · Drifted 50 (81 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 43 runs · 53% 25% shorter: 36 runs · 44% 50% shorter: 20 runs · 25% | Established2026-07-28 · Yarmouth |
| age of baroque | 14 | Average 6.6 Last 7 / 11 | 13.00 | Steamed 2 · Stable 3 · Drifted 9 (14 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 36% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 21% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 14% | Established2026-06-06 · Doncaster |
| rock opera | 51 | Average 5.1 Last 13 / 21 | 55.00 | Steamed 18 · Stable 11 · Drifted 17 (46 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 11 runs · 24% 25% shorter: 8 runs · 18% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 13% | Established2026-07-25 · York |
| criminal shore | 24 | Average 5.3 Last 11 / 11 | 65.00 | Steamed 7 · Stable 5 · Drifted 11 (23 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 9 runs · 39% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 30% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 9% | Established2026-08-07 · Haydock |
| bella bisbee | 43 | Average 4.9 Last 8 / 9 | 23.00 | Steamed 19 · Stable 10 · Drifted 12 (41 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 16 runs · 39% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 27% 50% shorter: 9 runs · 22% | Established2026-07-31 · Wolverhampton |
| bright | 34 | Average 6.2 Last 2 / 12 | 7.87 | Steamed 13 · Stable 2 · Drifted 16 (31 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 12 runs · 39% 25% shorter: 8 runs · 26% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 26% | Established2026-07-27 · Southwell |
| nyman | 23 | Average 5.3 Last 4 / 7 | 6.80 | Steamed 8 · Stable 4 · Drifted 9 (21 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 29% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 19% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 14% | Established2026-07-19 · Redcar |
| starliner | 53 | Average 5.6 Last 4 / 10 | 8.99 | Steamed 18 · Stable 8 · Drifted 24 (50 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 19 runs · 38% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 22% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 16% | Established2026-08-01 · Hamilton |
| the childe of hale | 13 | Average 5.4 Last — | — | Steamed 6 · Stable 2 · Drifted 4 (12 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 42% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 8% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 8% | Established2026-06-14 · Doncaster |
| war howl | 24 | Average 7.4 Last — | — | Steamed 3 · Stable 6 · Drifted 10 (19 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 7 runs · 37% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 21% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 11% | Established2026-07-23 · Doncaster |
| sunriseontheboyne | 38 | Average 7.0 Last 8 / 10 | 29.56 | Steamed 12 · Stable 5 · Drifted 17 (34 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 19 runs · 56% 25% shorter: 15 runs · 44% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 24% | Established2026-08-01 · Hamilton |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
sunriseontheboynePressure
No reliable signalTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
imperial guardcriminal shorebella bisbeebrightnymanstarlinerwar howlsunriseontheboyneClosers
imperial guardthapa vcage of baroquerock operabrightnymanthe childe of haleRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.5
Recent
Improving
Trend 22
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/1 · D 3/7 · G 3/8
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.10 · Finish 0.07
Connections
Steady
Michael Dods · Sam James
Draw
High · A/E 1.18
200 matched runners
Historical market
31 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.8
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.5
Recent
Declining
Trend -5
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/3 · D 11/62 · G 1/19
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.05 · Finish 0.01
Connections
Steady
Kevin & Lauren Frost · Jack Mitchell
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.87
191 matched runners
Historical market
78 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.6
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.5
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 2/8 · D 13/59 · G 5/17
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.13 · Finish 0.20
Connections
Steady
Mark Rimell · Toby Moore(7)
Draw
High · A/E 1.18
200 matched runners
Historical market
86 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.3
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.5
Recent
Declining
Trend -28
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/3 · D 1/7 · G 0/3
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.09 · Finish 0.07
Connections
Quiet
Jessica Macey · Sean Levey
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.87
191 matched runners
Historical market
14 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.6
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.5
Recent
Declining
Trend -17
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 drop 3 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 2
Conditions
Unknown
C 1/3 · D 0/3 · G 1/12
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.12 · Finish 0.28
Connections
Steady
Richard & Peter Fahey · Jack Garritty
Draw
Low · A/E 0.96
213 matched runners
Historical market
51 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.1
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.5
Recent
Improving
Trend 4
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Weak
C 0/1 · D 0/8 · G 0/3
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.14 · Finish -0.20
Connections
Steady
David Omeara · Conor Whiteley(5)
Draw
High · A/E 1.18
200 matched runners
Historical market
24 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.3
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.5
Recent
Declining
Trend -16
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 2/7 · D 3/24 · G 1/8
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.16 · Finish -0.11
Connections
Steady
Scott Dixon · Christian Howarth(3)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.87
191 matched runners
Historical market
43 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.9
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.5
Recent
Declining
Trend -8
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 1/3 · D 0/0 · G 1/6
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.02 · Finish 0.22
Connections
Quiet
Mark Loughnane · Darragh Keenan
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.87
191 matched runners
Historical market
34 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.2
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.5
Recent
Improving
Trend 8
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 2/11 · G 0/4
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.03 · Finish 0.18
Connections
Steady
Roger Fell · Cian Horgan(5)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.96
213 matched runners
Historical market
23 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.3
Ability
Below field
OR edge -8.5
Recent
Stable
Trend -2
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 2/16 · G 2/8
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.13 · Finish -0.08
Connections
Steady
Linda Perratt · Oisin Mcsweeney
Draw
Low · A/E 0.96
213 matched runners
Historical market
53 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -4.5
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 1/2 · D 1/4 · G 0/2
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.06 · Finish 0.40
Connections
Steady
Ivan Furtado · Tom Eaves
Draw
Low · A/E 0.96
213 matched runners
Historical market
13 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.4
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.5
Recent
Declining
Trend -16
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 1/2 · D 2/11 · G 1/4
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.04 · Finish -0.13
Connections
Steady
Ben Haslam · Paul Mulrennan
Draw
High · A/E 1.18
200 matched runners
Historical market
24 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.4
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.5
Recent
Declining
Trend -28
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 2
Conditions
Strong
C 0/1 · D 1/11 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.24 · Finish -0.09
Connections
Steady
Ben Haslam · Harry Vigors(5)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.96
213 matched runners
Historical market
38 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.0
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 5 · Doncaster
4:10 Doncaster
French Connection At Meadowhall Handicap
Forecast reading
Competitive top group
Top-two win-probability separation: 1.93 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history10/10
Usable Official Rating10/10
Informative pace profile10/10
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Competitive top group
1
county carlow
19.5%Win
2
zubaru
17.6%Win
Leader separation1.93pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Positive
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadercounty carlowLikely leader
Pace pressureStrongLeader under pressure
Top threatzubaru6/8 · Ability, Shape, Form, Yard
Best closerancient stateStrong finisher
Field abilityzubaruDominant
Race chaosCompetitive71
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county carlow | 0.72 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | No recent class line | +7.1Dominant | Stable | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility | 0.10Finishes well | Steady |
| zubaru | -0.07 · #7Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +8.1Dominant | Improving | Similar | 6/8 · StrongAbility, Shape, Form, Yard | 0.32Strong finisher | Hot |
| golden long | -0.14 · #10Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +6.1Dominant | Improving | Similar | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Shape, Form | 0.10Late positive | Steady |
| ancient state | 0.16 · #4Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | +4.1Strong | Improving | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Form | 0.35Strong finisher | Steady |
| papa cocktail | -0.09 · #8Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +0.1Competitive | Declining | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Shape, Yard | 0.17Finishes well | Hot |
| brummell | 0.40 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | +3.1Strong | Declining | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class | -0.00Neutral | Steady |
| flash rascal | 0.11 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | -2.9Below field | Declining | Weaker | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.18Finishes well | Steady |
| lions house | -0.09 · #9Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class | -9.9Below field | Stable | Weaker | 2/8 · FairShape | 0.19Finishes well | Steady |
| squealer | -0.03 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | -7.9Below field | Declining | Weaker | 2/8 · FairClass, Trip | 0.14Finishes well | Steady |
| justmyluck | 0.52 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 2 | -7.9Below field | Stable | Weaker | 1/8 · FairClass | -0.24Weak finisher | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Doncaster 5f143y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Course/distance baseline · 23 races
Going: Good To Firm10 runnersTurfStalls: Stands' side
LowA/E 0.53112 runners
MiddleA/E 1.1399 runners
HighA/E 1.34103 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 10 of 10 experienced runners
Archive coverage
10 of 10 runners
215 earlier WIN races matched
papa cocktail · pre-off
Steamed 18 · Stable 7 · Drifted 32
57 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
papa cocktail · in-play support
10%: 17 runs · 30%
25%: 14 runs · 25% · 50%: 10 runs · 18%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county carlow | 4 | Average 1.5 Last 2 / 6 | 4.42 | Steamed 2 · Stable 1 · Drifted 1 (4 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 25% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 25% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-06-05 · Fairyhouse |
| zubaru | 15 | Average 3.4 Last 4 / 10 | 6.80 | Steamed 5 · Stable 1 · Drifted 7 (13 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 7 runs · 54% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 38% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 31% | Established2026-07-04 · Newmarket |
| golden long | 6 | Average 2.4 Last 5 / 10 | 10.50 | Steamed 2 · Stable 0 · Drifted 3 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 40% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 40% | Established2026-07-04 · Newmarket |
| ancient state | 18 | Average 4.6 Last 9 / 13 | 24.00 | Steamed 8 · Stable 1 · Drifted 7 (16 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 53% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 33% | Established2026-07-27 · Windsor |
| papa cocktail | 60 | Average 5.0 Last 3 / 10 | 8.18 | Steamed 18 · Stable 7 · Drifted 32 (57 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 17 runs · 30% 25% shorter: 14 runs · 25% 50% shorter: 10 runs · 18% | Established2026-07-31 · Wolverhampton |
| brummell | 24 | Average 4.5 Last — | — | Steamed 5 · Stable 6 · Drifted 12 (23 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 36% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 27% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 27% | Established2026-07-10 · Chester |
| flash rascal | 13 | Average 4.1 Last 1 / 11 | 5.20 | Steamed 5 · Stable 1 · Drifted 6 (12 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 17% | Established2026-04-25 · Haydock |
| lions house | 31 | Average 5.2 Last 5 / 11 | 13.33 | Steamed 9 · Stable 3 · Drifted 16 (28 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 21% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 18% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 14% | Established2026-07-13 · Ayr |
| squealer | 35 | Average 5.7 Last 1 / 4 | 2.44 | Steamed 8 · Stable 6 · Drifted 17 (31 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 14 runs · 45% 25% shorter: 8 runs · 26% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 16% | Established2026-07-21 · Nottingham |
| justmyluck | 9 | Average 5.4 Last 5 / 5 | 70.00 | Steamed 3 · Stable 1 · Drifted 5 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 11% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 11% | Established2026-07-17 · Hamilton |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
county carlowPressure
ancient statebrummelljustmyluckTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
flash rascalsquealerClosers
county carlowzubarugolden longancient statepapa cocktailflash rascallions housesquealerRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +7.1
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.72 · Finish 0.10
Connections
Steady
Ben Haslam · Paul Mulrennan
Draw
Low · A/E 0.53
112 matched runners
Historical market
4 runs
Avg BSP rank 1.5
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +8.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 9
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 2/4 · D 0/0 · G 3/6
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.07 · Finish 0.32
Connections
Hot
George Scott · Darragh Keenan
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.13
99 matched runners
Historical market
15 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.4
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +6.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 6
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 2/2
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.14 · Finish 0.10
Connections
Steady
Lemos De Souza · Sean Levey
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.13
99 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.4
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 28
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 1/4
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.16 · Finish 0.35
Connections
Steady
Adam Kirby · William Carson
Draw
Low · A/E 0.53
112 matched runners
Historical market
18 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.6
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -4
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 1/7 · D 0/0 · G 3/16
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.09 · Finish 0.17
Connections
Hot
Michael Herrington · Jack Mitchell
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.13
99 matched runners
Historical market
60 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -17
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/0 · G 1/3
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.40 · Finish -0.00
Connections
Steady
Julie Camacho · Sam James
Draw
High · A/E 1.34
103 matched runners
Historical market
24 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -2.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -4
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 1/2
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.11 · Finish 0.18
Connections
Steady
David Loughnane · Nicola Currie
Draw
High · A/E 1.34
103 matched runners
Historical market
13 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.1
Ability
Below field
OR edge -9.9
Recent
Stable
Trend -3
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/3
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.09 · Finish 0.19
Connections
Steady
Linda Perratt · Faleh Bughenaim
Draw
Low · A/E 0.53
112 matched runners
Historical market
31 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -7.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -18
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 1/4 · D 1/4 · G 0/11
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.03 · Finish 0.14
Connections
Steady
Nigel Tinkler · Faye Mcmanoman
Draw
Low · A/E 0.53
112 matched runners
Historical market
35 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.7
Ability
Below field
OR edge -7.9
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 2
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/3
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.52 · Finish -0.24
Connections
Steady
Linda Perratt · Oisin Mcsweeney
Draw
High · A/E 1.34
103 matched runners
Historical market
9 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.4
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 6 · Doncaster
4:45 Doncaster
Luxury Looks From The Avenue At Meadowhall Handicap
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 14.48 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
81%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history7/7
Usable Official Rating7/7
Informative pace profile6/7
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
celtic chariot
34.0%Win
2
napolian
19.5%Win
Leader separation14.48pp
Race shape
Leader with room
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureModerate
Pace certaintyClear
ScenarioSlow
CollapseLow
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderlady hornblowerLikely leader
Pace pressureModerateLeader with room
Top threatnapolian5/8 · Ability, Class, Shape, Trip
Best closerceltic chariotFinishes well
Field abilityceltic chariotStrong
Race chaosNormal48
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| celtic chariot | 0.05 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | +4.1Strong | Stable | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip | 0.10Finishes well | Steady |
| napolian | 0.32 · #2Possible leader | May control | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | +2.1Competitive | Declining | Similar | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Shape, Trip | -0.53Weak finisher | Steady |
| taradif | 0.00 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | +3.1Strong | Unclear | Similar | 2/8 · FairAbility | 0.00Neutral | Quiet |
| berlinetta | 0.16 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +0.1Competitive | Improving | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Trip | -0.52Weak finisher | Steady |
| vegas virtue | -0.17 · #7Hold-up | May need help | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class | -2.9Below field | Stable | Weaker | 1/8 · FairTrip | -0.06Neutral | Steady |
| snaafy | 0.02 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class | -3.9Below field | Stable | Similar | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.08Neutral | Steady |
| lady hornblower | 0.66 · #1Likely leader | May control | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -2.9Below field | Declining | Weaker | 2/8 · FairShape | -0.06Neutral | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Doncaster 7f213y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going · all field sizes · 73 races
Going: Good To Firm7 runnersTurfStalls: Inside
LowA/E 1.12244 runners
MiddleA/E 0.91196 runners
HighA/E 0.92217 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 7 of 7 experienced runners
Archive coverage
7 of 7 runners
56 earlier WIN races matched
snaafy · pre-off
Steamed 5 · Stable 3 · Drifted 4
12 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
snaafy · in-play support
10%: 6 runs · 50%
25%: 4 runs · 33% · 50%: 2 runs · 17%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| celtic chariot | 6 | Average 5.5 Last 3 / 4 | 3.61 | Steamed 3 · Stable 0 · Drifted 3 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 67% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 33% | Established2026-07-23 · Yarmouth |
| napolian | 10 | Average 4.0 Last 6 / 7 | 18.50 | Steamed 1 · Stable 1 · Drifted 6 (8 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 62% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 25% | Established2026-07-28 · Beverley |
| taradif | 1 | Average 10.0 Last 10 / 10 | 186.21 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 100% | Limited2026-06-28 · Wolverhampton |
| berlinetta | 7 | Average 3.4 Last 4 / 8 | 7.65 | Steamed 4 · Stable 1 · Drifted 2 (7 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 43% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 29% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 29% | Established2026-07-27 · Windsor |
| vegas virtue | 10 | Average 4.5 Last 3 / 7 | 4.55 | Steamed 3 · Stable 2 · Drifted 5 (10 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 20% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 20% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 20% | Established2026-08-03 · Ripon |
| snaafy | 13 | Average 4.4 Last 8 / 18 | 23.54 | Steamed 5 · Stable 3 · Drifted 4 (12 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 17% | Established2026-07-31 · Galway |
| lady hornblower | 9 | Average 6.2 Last 3 / 7 | 7.40 | Steamed 3 · Stable 2 · Drifted 4 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 7 runs · 78% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 56% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 11% | Established2026-07-28 · Beverley |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
lady hornblowerPressure
napolianTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
celtic chariottaradifberlinettasnaafyClosers
celtic chariotRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.1
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 1/2 · D 2/4 · G 2/4
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.05 · Finish 0.10
Connections
Steady
Kevin & Lauren Frost · Jack Mitchell
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.91
196 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.5
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -9
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/3 · G 1/4
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.32 · Finish -0.53
Connections
Steady
David Omeara · Conor Whiteley(5)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.91
196 matched runners
Historical market
10 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.0
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.1
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Quiet
Jessica Macey · Sean Levey
Draw
High · A/E 0.92
217 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 10.0
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 11
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/2 · G 1/4
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.16 · Finish -0.52
Connections
Steady
Jack Channon · George Bass
Draw
Low · A/E 1.12
244 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.4
Ability
Below field
OR edge -2.9
Recent
Stable
Trend -4
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/2 · D 2/4 · G 0/3
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.17 · Finish -0.06
Connections
Steady
Tim Easterby · Oisin Mcsweeney
Draw
Low · A/E 1.12
244 matched runners
Historical market
10 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -3.9
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
Up in grade
L2 rise 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.02 · Finish -0.08
Connections
Steady
David Loughnane · Sam James
Draw
High · A/E 0.92
217 matched runners
Historical market
13 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.4
Ability
Below field
OR edge -2.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -15
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/1 · G 1/3
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.66 · Finish -0.06
Connections
Steady
Jedd Okeeffe · Jack Garritty
Draw
Low · A/E 1.12
244 matched runners
Historical market
9 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.2
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 7 · Doncaster
5:20 Doncaster
Raceday Ready With Meadowhall Handicap
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 8.44 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history8/8
Usable Official Rating8/8
Informative pace profile8/8
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
sound gloria
29.4%Win
2
just adair
21.0%Win
Leader separation8.44pp
Race shape
Solo lead chance
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureLight
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioSlow
CollapseLow
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderlednikovLikely leader
Pace pressureLightSolo lead chance
Top threatsound gloria5/8 · Ability, Class, Form, Yard
Best closersound gloriaFinishes well
Field abilityis she nowStrong
Race chaosNormal46
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sound gloria | -0.24 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 2 | +3.4Strong | Improving | Weaker | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Form, Yard | 0.25Finishes well | Hot |
| just adair | 0.07 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -0.6Below field | Declining | Similar | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.08Late positive | Steady |
| is she now | -0.24 · #7Hold-up | May need help | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | +5.4Strong | Declining | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Yard | -0.09Neutral | Hot |
| character testing | 0.14 · #2Hold-up | May need help | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +1.4Competitive | Declining | Similar | 2/8 · FairAbility, Class | 0.03Neutral | Steady |
| rajendra | -0.31 · #8Hold-up | May need help | L1 drop 2 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +4.4Strong | Stable | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class | -0.38Weak finisher | Quiet |
| manbearpig | -0.22 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | -1.6Below field | Declining | Similar | 1/8 · FairClass | -0.62Weak finisher | Quiet |
| lednikov | 0.40 · #1Likely leader | May control | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -3.6Below field | Stable | Similar | 2/8 · FairShape | -0.21Weak finisher | Steady |
| alcanzor | -0.14 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | -8.6Below field | Declining | Weaker | 1/8 · FairClass | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Doncaster 1m6f115y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Course/distance baseline · 78 races
Going: Good To Firm8 runnersTurfStalls: Inside
LowA/E 0.98241 runners
MiddleA/E 0.91182 runners
HighA/E 1.09210 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 8 of 8 experienced runners
Archive coverage
8 of 8 runners
143 earlier WIN races matched
lednikov · pre-off
Steamed 22 · Stable 7 · Drifted 21
50 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
lednikov · in-play support
10%: 29 runs · 58%
25%: 20 runs · 40% · 50%: 12 runs · 24%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| sound gloria | 5 | Average 4.8 Last 1 / 7 | 2.14 | Steamed 2 · Stable 2 · Drifted 1 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 60% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 20% | Descriptive2026-07-22 · Catterick |
| just adair | 10 | Average 3.9 Last 3 / 9 | 5.20 | Steamed 5 · Stable 0 · Drifted 5 (10 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 30% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 20% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 20% | Established2026-07-28 · Ffos Las |
| is she now | 29 | Average 8.1 Last 5 / 9 | 12.68 | Steamed 10 · Stable 5 · Drifted 12 (27 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 12 runs · 46% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 27% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 23% | Established2026-07-31 · Newcastle |
| character testing | 30 | Average 3.9 Last 5 / 7 | 9.73 | Steamed 16 · Stable 3 · Drifted 11 (30 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 16 runs · 53% 25% shorter: 13 runs · 43% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 23% | Established2026-07-28 · Beverley |
| rajendra | 5 | Average 4.4 Last 3 / 3 | 15.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 1 · Drifted 3 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 20% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-07-15 · Lingfield |
| manbearpig | 6 | Average 6.5 Last 9 / 10 | 23.00 | Steamed 3 · Stable 0 · Drifted 3 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-07-05 · Ayr |
| lednikov | 52 | Average 5.6 Last 2 / 9 | 9.08 | Steamed 22 · Stable 7 · Drifted 21 (50 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 29 runs · 58% 25% shorter: 20 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 12 runs · 24% | Established2026-07-23 · Southwell |
| alcanzor | 6 | Average 7.4 Last 6 / 10 | 32.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 4 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-07-23 · Southwell |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
lednikovPressure
No reliable signalTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
sound gloriajust adairmanbearpigalcanzorClosers
sound gloriajust adairRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.4
Recent
Improving
Trend 26
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 2
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 1/2
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.24 · Finish 0.25
Connections
Hot
Roger Varian · Jack Mitchell
Draw
Low · A/E 0.98
241 matched runners
Historical market
5 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.6
Recent
Declining
Trend -5
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 1/4
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.07 · Finish 0.08
Connections
Steady
Jonjo & A J Oneill · Paul Mulrennan
Draw
Low · A/E 0.98
241 matched runners
Historical market
10 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.9
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.4
Recent
Declining
Trend -15
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.24 · Finish -0.09
Connections
Hot
Daragh Bourke · Toby Moore(7)
Draw
High · A/E 1.09
210 matched runners
Historical market
29 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.1
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.4
Recent
Declining
Trend -14
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/0 · G 0/4
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.14 · Finish 0.03
Connections
Steady
Mark Walford · Jack Garritty
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.91
182 matched runners
Historical market
30 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.9
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.4
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 drop 2 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.31 · Finish -0.38
Connections
Quiet
David Simcock · Sean Levey
Draw
Low · A/E 0.98
241 matched runners
Historical market
5 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.4
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.6
Recent
Declining
Trend -9
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.22 · Finish -0.62
Connections
Quiet
Rebecca Menzies · Faleh Bughenaim
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.91
182 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -3.6
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/0 · G 0/3
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.40 · Finish -0.21
Connections
Steady
Ivan Furtado · Elle-May Croot(5)
Draw
High · A/E 1.09
210 matched runners
Historical market
52 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -8.6
Recent
Declining
Trend -10
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.14 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Tim Easterby · Faye Mcmanoman
Draw
High · A/E 1.09
210 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.4
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 8 · Dundalk (AW)
1:15 Dundalk (AW)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 17.04 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Moderate
55%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history12/14
Usable Official Rating6/14
Informative pace profile8/14
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
institute
22.2%Win
2
tudor flame
5.2%Win
Leader separation17.04pp
Race shape
Front end contested
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Negative
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderwhite smokePossible leader
Pace pressureStrongFront end contested
Top threatinstitute3/8 · Ability, Form
Best closerwhite smokeNeutral
Field abilityinstituteDominant
Race chaosCompetitive69
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| institute | 0.36 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | No recent class line | +14.0Dominant | Improving | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form | -0.78Weak finisher | Steady |
| tudor flame | 0.00 · #9Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Quiet |
| beach barbie | -0.28 · #12Hold-up | Pace to aim at | No recent class line | -1.0Below field | Stable | Stronger | 2/8 · FairShape | -0.35Weak finisher | Steady |
| eager lad | 0.00 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| white smoke | 0.56 · #1Possible leader | Faces pace burn | No recent class line | -3.0Below field | Declining | Weaker | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.16Neutral | Steady |
| strikepoint | -0.35 · #13Hold-up | Pace to aim at | No recent class line | —Unrated | Stable | Stronger | 2/8 · FairShape | 0.00Neutral | Quiet |
| mchenry sunrise | -0.38 · #14Hold-up | Pace to aim at | No recent class line | -6.0Below field | Improving | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveShape, Form | -0.35Weak finisher | Steady |
| osterode | 0.00 · #8Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Stronger | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| nebrook star | 0.54 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | No recent class line | +1.0Competitive | Stable | Stronger | 1/8 · FairAbility | -0.76Weak finisher | Steady |
| famed again | 0.07 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -5.0Below field | Stable | Similar | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.26Weak finisher | Steady |
| grande cuvee | 0.35 · #4Prominent | Stalking hot pace | No recent class line | —Unrated | Improving | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveShape, Form | -0.80Weak finisher | Steady |
| optics | 0.00 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Improving | Stronger | 1/8 · FairForm | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| off we go | -0.20 · #11Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Improving | Stronger | 1/8 · FairForm | -0.80Weak finisher | Steady |
| forbidden | -0.20 · #10Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Declining | Stronger | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.80Weak finisher | Quiet |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Dundalk (AW) 5f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 82 races
Going: Standard14 runnersPolytrackStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E 1.07387 runners
MiddleA/E 0.97328 runners
HighA/E 0.92370 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Partial · 13 of 14 experienced runners
Archive coverage
13 of 14 runners
61 earlier WIN races matched
famed again · pre-off
Steamed 1 · Stable 2 · Drifted 8
11 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
famed again · in-play support
10%: 7 runs · 70%
25%: 6 runs · 60% · 50%: 3 runs · 30%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| institute | 6 | Average 3.0 Last 1 / 13 | 2.96 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 5 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 17% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 17% | Established2026-07-11 · Navan |
| tudor flame | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| beach barbie | 3 | Average 7.0 Last 8 / 9 | 95.00 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 3 (3 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 33% | Descriptive2026-05-26 · Dundalk |
| eager lad | 1 | Average — Last — | — | — | 10% shorter: — 25% shorter: — 50% shorter: — | Limited2026-04-23 · Dundalk |
| white smoke | 12 | Average 6.9 Last 9 / 10 | 22.00 | Steamed 0 · Stable 2 · Drifted 7 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 11% | Established2026-07-11 · Navan |
| strikepoint | 3 | Average 9.5 Last 11 / 13 | 230.00 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 50% | Descriptive2026-07-24 · Cork |
| mchenry sunrise | 3 | Average 6.0 Last 5 / 13 | 30.01 | Steamed 2 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (3 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-06-14 · Cork |
| osterode | 1 | Average 2.0 Last 2 / 13 | 5.30 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-06-14 · Cork |
| nebrook star | 7 | Average 7.5 Last 17 / 18 | 81.20 | Steamed 3 · Stable 1 · Drifted 2 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-07-18 · Curragh |
| famed again | 14 | Average 10.4 Last 17 / 18 | 70.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 2 · Drifted 8 (11 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 7 runs · 70% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 60% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 30% | Established2026-07-01 · Fairyhouse |
| grande cuvee | 5 | Average 2.5 Last — | — | Steamed 1 · Stable 1 · Drifted 0 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-07-24 · Cork |
| optics | 2 | Average 12.5 Last 13 / 13 | 740.00 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 50% | Limited2026-07-24 · Cork |
| off we go | 2 | Average 11.0 Last 10 / 13 | 270.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 100% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 50% | Limited2026-07-11 · Navan |
| forbidden | 2 | Average 16.0 Last 19 / 20 | 810.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 100% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 50% | Limited2026-06-27 · Curragh |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
white smokePressure
institutewhite smokenebrook starTracking
grande cuveeMidfield
tudor flameeager ladosterodefamed againopticsoff we goforbiddenClosers
No reliable signalRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +14.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 4
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/2 · D 0/1 · G 0/2
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.36 · Finish -0.78
Connections
Steady
A P Obrien · Wayne Lordan
Draw
High · A/E 0.92
370 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Quiet
John James Feane · Leigh Roche
Draw
High · A/E 0.92
370 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.0
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/3 · D 0/2 · G 0/3
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.28 · Finish -0.35
Connections
Steady
Edward Lynam · James Ryan
Draw
Low · A/E 1.07
387 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
A Oliver · Gary Carroll
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.97
328 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Below field
OR edge -3.0
Recent
Declining
Trend -14
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/1 · D 0/3 · G 0/1
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.56 · Finish -0.16
Connections
Steady
M C Grassick · Dylan Browne Mcmonagle
Draw
Low · A/E 1.07
387 matched runners
Historical market
12 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.9
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend -3
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.35 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Quiet
John James Feane · Gavin Ryan
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.97
328 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 9.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -6.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 6
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 0/0
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.38 · Finish -0.35
Connections
Steady
J A Stack · Andrew Slattery
Draw
High · A/E 0.92
370 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
W Mccreery · Declan Mcdonogh
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.97
328 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.0
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.0
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Weak
C 0/0 · D 0/6 · G 0/1
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.54 · Finish -0.76
Connections
Steady
Diego Dias · Diego Lima
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.97
328 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.0
Recent
Stable
Trend -2
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.07 · Finish -0.26
Connections
Steady
Miss Hilary Mcloughlin · Donagh Oconnor
Draw
Low · A/E 1.07
387 matched runners
Historical market
14 runs
Avg BSP rank 10.4
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Improving
Trend 6
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/0
Pace
Prominent
Front 0.35 · Finish -0.80
Connections
Steady
J A Stack · Seamie Heffernan
Draw
High · A/E 0.92
370 matched runners
Historical market
5 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.5
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Improving
Trend 6
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Ms M Mcdowall · Nathan Crosse
Draw
Low · A/E 1.07
387 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 12.5
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Improving
Trend 4
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.20 · Finish -0.80
Connections
Steady
A Oliver · Ben Coen
Draw
High · A/E 0.92
370 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 11.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Declining
Trend -4
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.20 · Finish -0.80
Connections
Quiet
Tracey Collins · Ronan Whelan
Draw
Low · A/E 1.07
387 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 16.0
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 9 · Dundalk (AW)
1:50 Dundalk (AW)
Irish EBF Auction Series Fillies Maiden (IRE Incentive Race)
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 8.22 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Limited
27%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history8/14
Usable Official Rating2/14
Informative pace profile2/14
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
crayons in the sky
25.8%Win
2
tosca no candis
17.6%Win
Leader separation8.22pp
Race shape
Leader with room
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureModerate
Pace certaintyClear
ScenarioEven
CollapseLow
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadercloughleagh bridgeLikely leader
Pace pressureModerateLeader with room
Top threattosca no candis2/8 · Ability
Best closercrayons in the skyStrong finisher
Field abilitytosca no candisDominant
Race chaosNormal57
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crayons in the sky | -0.20 · #13Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Stable | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 1.00Strong finisher | Steady |
| tosca no candis | 0.33 · #2Possible leader | Lead with pressure | No recent class line | +9.0Dominant | Stable | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility | 0.10Late positive | Steady |
| hip hop chrissy | -0.20 · #14Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Stable | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 1.00Strong finisher | Steady |
| scarlet dream | 0.00 · #10Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| starlit | 0.00 · #11Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Stronger | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| mount pinatubo | 0.00 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| moyanna castle | 0.00 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| step in style | 0.00 · #12Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| cloughleagh bridge | 0.68 · #1Likely leader | Lead with pressure | No recent class line | -9.0Below field | Improving | Weaker | 1/8 · FairForm | -0.80Weak finisher | Quiet |
| ladys court | 0.00 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| sadie rose | 0.00 · #9Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Quiet |
| outside sun | 0.00 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Weaker | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| ana morello | 0.00 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Weaker | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| rathbran lady | 0.00 · #8Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Dundalk (AW) 6f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 199 races
Going: Standard14 runnersPolytrackStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E 1.00965 runners
MiddleA/E 0.78795 runners
HighA/E 1.23913 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Partial · 8 of 14 experienced runners
Archive coverage
8 of 14 runners
17 earlier WIN races matched
cloughleagh bridge · pre-off
Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2
3 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
cloughleagh bridge · in-play support
10%: 2 runs · 67%
25%: 2 runs · 67% · 50%: 2 runs · 67%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crayons in the sky | 2 | Average 3.5 Last 2 / 9 | 5.40 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-08 · Fairyhouse |
| tosca no candis | 3 | Average 5.0 Last 6 / 6 | 418.23 | Steamed 2 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (3 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 67% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-07-23 · Leopardstown |
| hip hop chrissy | 3 | Average 2.5 Last 1 / 9 | 2.17 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-07-02 · Bellewstown |
| scarlet dream | 1 | Average — Last — | — | — | 10% shorter: — 25% shorter: — 50% shorter: — | Limited2026-05-31 · Listowel |
| starlit | 1 | Average 6.0 Last 6 / 11 | 37.90 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-08-03 · Naas |
| mount pinatubo | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| moyanna castle | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| step in style | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| cloughleagh bridge | 4 | Average 7.7 Last 8 / 11 | 130.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (3 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 67% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 67% | Descriptive2026-08-05 · Sligo |
| ladys court | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| sadie rose | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| outside sun | 2 | Average 7.0 Last 7 / 11 | 34.00 | Steamed 0 · Stable 1 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-08-05 · Sligo |
| ana morello | 1 | Average 4.0 Last 4 / 10 | 18.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-25 · Gowran Park |
| rathbran lady | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
cloughleagh bridgePressure
tosca no candisTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
crayons in the skyhip hop chrissyscarlet dreamstarlitmount pinatubomoyanna castlestep in styleladys courtsadie roseoutside sunana morellorathbran ladyClosers
crayons in the skytosca no candiship hop chrissyRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend -2
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.20 · Finish 1.00
Connections
Steady
Stephen Thorne · Dylan Browne Mcmonagle
Draw
Low · A/E 1.00
965 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.5
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +9.0
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.33 · Finish 0.10
Connections
Steady
Robson De Aguiar · Donagh Oconnor
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.78
795 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.20 · Finish 1.00
Connections
Steady
Donnacha Aidan Obrien · Gavin Ryan
Draw
High · A/E 1.23
913 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.5
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Adrian Mcguinness · Adam Caffrey
Draw
Low · A/E 1.00
965 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Mrs John Harrington · Shane Foley
Draw
High · A/E 1.23
913 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Jack Foley · Ben Coen
Draw
High · A/E 1.23
913 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Jamie Heavey · Leigh Roche
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.78
795 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Anthony Mccann · Patrick Mcgettigan(5)
Draw
High · A/E 1.23
913 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Below field
OR edge -9.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 4
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/0
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.68 · Finish -0.80
Connections
Quiet
P J F Murphy · Ronan Whelan
Draw
High · A/E 1.23
913 matched runners
Historical market
4 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.7
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Paul W Flynn · Chris Hayes
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.78
795 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Quiet
F G Hand · Siobhan Rutledge
Draw
Low · A/E 1.00
965 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Kevin Michael Smith · Rory Mulligan(5)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.78
795 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Diego Dias · Diego Lima
Draw
Low · A/E 1.00
965 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Michael Mulvany · Wesley Joyce(3)
Draw
Low · A/E 1.00
965 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 10 · Dundalk (AW)
2:25 Dundalk (AW)
BAR 1 Betting "Download Our App" Mourne Handicap
Forecast reading
Competitive top group
Top-two win-probability separation: 1.94 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
83%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history12/12
Usable Official Rating12/12
Informative pace profile11/12
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Competitive top group
1
i bid you ajou
11.7%Win
2
black forza
9.8%Win
Leader separation1.94pp
Race shape
Front end contested
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadervaliant forcePossible leader
Pace pressureStrongFront end contested
Top threatblack forza6/8 · Ability, Shape, Form, Trip
Best closerallsortzStrong finisher
Field abilitysir les pattersonDominant
Race chaosCompetitive75
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| i bid you ajou | 0.27 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -7.9Below field | Declining | Weaker | 1/8 · FairTrip | 0.11Finishes well | Steady |
| black forza | -0.14 · #12Hold-up | Pace to aim at | No recent class line | +8.1Dominant | Improving | Stronger | 6/8 · StrongAbility, Shape, Form, Trip | 0.16Finishes well | Steady |
| sir les patterson | 0.09 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +17.1Dominant | Improving | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Trip | -0.10Neutral | Steady |
| collective power | -0.11 · #11Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -5.9Below field | Improving | Similar | 2/8 · FairForm, Trip | 0.24Finishes well | Steady |
| allsortz | 0.17 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -4.9Below field | Improving | Similar | 2/8 · FairForm, Trip | 0.40Strong finisher | Steady |
| dark ace | 0.14 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +3.1Strong | Improving | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Trip | 0.13Finishes well | Steady |
| valiant force | 0.45 · #1Possible leader | Faces pace burn | No recent class line | +12.1Dominant | Stable | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip | -0.15Neutral | Steady |
| kerdos | 0.01 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +6.1Dominant | Declining | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| all the girls | -0.01 · #9Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -4.9Below field | Improving | Weaker | 1/8 · FairForm | 0.04Late positive | Steady |
| cuban grey | 0.43 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | No recent class line | -8.9Below field | Declining | Similar | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.09Neutral | Steady |
| dandyville | 0.00 · #8Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -8.9Below field | Declining | Weaker | 1/8 · FairTrip | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| fox in flight | -0.07 · #10Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -4.9Below field | Stable | Similar | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.01Neutral | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Dundalk (AW) 6f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 199 races
Going: Standard12 runnersPolytrackStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E 1.00965 runners
MiddleA/E 0.78795 runners
HighA/E 1.23913 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 12 of 12 experienced runners
Archive coverage
12 of 12 runners
371 earlier WIN races matched
collective power · pre-off
Steamed 32 · Stable 20 · Drifted 24
76 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
collective power · in-play support
10%: 34 runs · 45%
25%: 21 runs · 28% · 50%: 12 runs · 16%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| i bid you ajou | 34 | Average 4.4 Last 1 / 10 | 4.80 | Steamed 10 · Stable 5 · Drifted 16 (31 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 26% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 23% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 16% | Established2026-07-22 · Naas |
| black forza | 11 | Average 7.0 Last — | — | Steamed 3 · Stable 2 · Drifted 3 (8 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 62% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 62% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 25% | Established2026-06-20 · Royal Ascot |
| sir les patterson | 23 | Average 6.1 Last 11 / 20 | 34.48 | Steamed 8 · Stable 2 · Drifted 9 (19 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 42% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 37% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 26% | Established2026-07-18 · Curragh |
| collective power | 88 | Average 4.3 Last 1 / 9 | 6.05 | Steamed 32 · Stable 20 · Drifted 24 (76 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 34 runs · 45% 25% shorter: 21 runs · 28% 50% shorter: 12 runs · 16% | Established2026-07-12 · Dundalk |
| allsortz | 13 | Average 5.5 Last 7 / 11 | 11.50 | Steamed 2 · Stable 3 · Drifted 8 (13 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 38% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 38% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 15% | Established2026-07-24 · Cork |
| dark ace | 22 | Average 5.8 Last 10 / 14 | 42.00 | Steamed 6 · Stable 4 · Drifted 10 (20 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 25% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 25% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 25% | Established2026-08-02 · Galway |
| valiant force | 32 | Average 5.6 Last 5 / 9 | 8.73 | Steamed 13 · Stable 0 · Drifted 12 (25 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 15 runs · 60% 25% shorter: 12 runs · 48% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 28% | Established2026-07-12 · Dundalk |
| kerdos | 30 | Average 5.6 Last 7 / 9 | 12.00 | Steamed 11 · Stable 4 · Drifted 15 (30 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 13 runs · 43% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 23% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 13% | Established2026-07-12 · Dundalk |
| all the girls | 8 | Average 8.9 Last 11 / 12 | 25.00 | Steamed 3 · Stable 2 · Drifted 3 (8 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 38% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 38% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 25% | Established2026-06-12 · Fairyhouse |
| cuban grey | 62 | Average 5.6 Last — | — | Steamed 28 · Stable 8 · Drifted 20 (56 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 25 runs · 45% 25% shorter: 17 runs · 30% 50% shorter: 11 runs · 20% | Established2026-07-18 · Curragh |
| dandyville | 36 | Average 6.4 Last 13 / 14 | 86.71 | Steamed 13 · Stable 4 · Drifted 15 (32 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 12 runs · 38% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 34% 50% shorter: 10 runs · 31% | Established2025-08-04 · Naas |
| fox in flight | 12 | Average 6.8 Last 10 / 11 | 28.00 | Steamed 5 · Stable 0 · Drifted 7 (12 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 42% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 42% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 17% | Established2026-07-24 · Cork |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
valiant forcePressure
valiant forcecuban greyTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
i bid you ajousir les pattersoncollective powerallsortzdark acekerdosall the girlsdandyvillefox in flightClosers
i bid you ajoublack forzacollective powerallsortzdark aceRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Below field
OR edge -7.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -15
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 0/5 · D 3/11 · G 0/5
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.27 · Finish 0.11
Connections
Steady
Mark Fahey · Reese Holohan(7)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.78
795 matched runners
Historical market
34 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.4
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +8.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 22
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 0/2 · D 2/4 · G 0/2
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.14 · Finish 0.16
Connections
Steady
M D Ocallaghan · Dylan Browne Mcmonagle
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.78
795 matched runners
Historical market
11 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.0
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +17.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 22
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 2/3 · D 3/11 · G 4/7
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.09 · Finish -0.10
Connections
Steady
Stephen Thorne · Paddy Harnett(5)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.78
795 matched runners
Historical market
23 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.1
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.9
Recent
Improving
Trend 6
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 6/38 · D 5/43 · G 6/38
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.11 · Finish 0.24
Connections
Steady
Edward Lynam · Ben Coen
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.78
795 matched runners
Historical market
88 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.3
Ability
Below field
OR edge -4.9
Recent
Improving
Trend 10
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 1/3 · D 1/7 · G 1/3
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.17 · Finish 0.40
Connections
Steady
David Marnane · Luke Mcateer
Draw
Low · A/E 1.00
965 matched runners
Historical market
13 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.5
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 9
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 2/8 · D 4/12 · G 4/12
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.14 · Finish 0.13
Connections
Steady
Adrian Mcguinness · Adam Caffrey
Draw
High · A/E 1.23
913 matched runners
Historical market
22 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.8
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +12.1
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 5/10 · D 1/10 · G 5/14
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.45 · Finish -0.15
Connections
Steady
Robson De Aguiar · Donagh Oconnor
Draw
Low · A/E 1.00
965 matched runners
Historical market
32 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.6
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +6.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -11
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 1/2 · D 2/6 · G 1/3
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.01 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Stephen Thorne · Jack Kearney(3)
Draw
Low · A/E 1.00
965 matched runners
Historical market
30 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -4.9
Recent
Improving
Trend 16
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 1/5 · D 0/3 · G 1/5
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.01 · Finish 0.04
Connections
Steady
T G Mccourt · Wesley Joyce(3)
Draw
High · A/E 1.23
913 matched runners
Historical market
8 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.9
Ability
Below field
OR edge -8.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -18
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Weak
C 2/7 · D 0/5 · G 3/28
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.43 · Finish -0.09
Connections
Steady
Patrick J Mckenna · Rory Mulligan(5)
Draw
High · A/E 1.23
913 matched runners
Historical market
62 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -8.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -39
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 3/11 · D 6/21 · G 3/11
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Ms Claire Oconnell · Chris Hayes
Draw
Low · A/E 1.00
965 matched runners
Historical market
36 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.4
Ability
Below field
OR edge -4.9
Recent
Stable
Trend 3
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Weak
C 1/5 · D 0/4 · G 1/5
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.07 · Finish -0.01
Connections
Steady
David Marnane · Andrew Slattery
Draw
High · A/E 1.23
913 matched runners
Historical market
12 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.8
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 11 · Dundalk (AW)
3:00 Dundalk (AW)
BAR 1 Betting "First For Football" Apprentice Maiden
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 10.09 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Limited
40%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history9/14
Usable Official Rating5/14
Informative pace profile5/14
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
trek home
17.5%Win
2
emiza
7.4%Win
Leader separation10.09pp
Race shape
Front end contested
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Positive
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadercall the cavalryPossible leader
Pace pressureStrongFront end contested
Top threatshes too kool5/8 · Ability, Shape, Form
Best closercall the cavalryLate positive
Field abilitypunica granatumStrong
Race chaosChaotic84
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| trek home | 0.27 · #2Prominent | Stalking hot pace | No recent class line | +1.4Competitive | Stable | Weaker | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Shape | -0.10Neutral | Quiet |
| emiza | 0.00 · #8Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Weaker | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| punica granatum | 0.23 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +3.4Strong | Declining | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility | -0.10Neutral | Steady |
| call the cavalry | 0.32 · #1Possible leader | Faces pace burn | No recent class line | -7.6Below field | Stable | Weaker | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.07Late positive | Quiet |
| little sure shot | 0.15 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -0.6Below field | Declining | Stronger | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.60Weak finisher | Steady |
| brigids charm | 0.00 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| galavanting | 0.00 · #9Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| aghadrum boy | 0.00 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Stronger | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Quiet |
| shes too kool | -0.11 · #12Hold-up | Pace to aim at | No recent class line | +3.4Strong | Improving | Stronger | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Shape, Form | -0.32Weak finisher | Steady |
| steppinoncats | 0.00 · #11Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Quiet |
| eldorado glory | 0.00 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| strike de vega | -0.20 · #13Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Improving | Stronger | 1/8 · FairForm | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| hurleys hill | 0.00 · #10Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| trovao dourado | -0.20 · #14Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Declining | Stronger | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.80Weak finisher | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Dundalk (AW) 7f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 436 races
Going: Standard14 runnersPolytrackStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E 0.982122 runners
MiddleA/E 0.991744 runners
HighA/E 1.032034 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Partial · 10 of 14 experienced runners
Archive coverage
10 of 14 runners
37 earlier WIN races matched
punica granatum · pre-off
Steamed 4 · Stable 1 · Drifted 1
6 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
punica granatum · in-play support
10%: 2 runs · 33%
25%: 1 runs · 17% · 50%: 0 runs · 0%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| trek home | 6 | Average 4.2 Last 3 / 13 | 8.32 | Steamed 2 · Stable 2 · Drifted 1 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 20% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-07-24 · Cork |
| emiza | 1 | Average 4.0 Last 4 / 17 | 6.20 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 100% | Limited2026-08-03 · Naas |
| punica granatum | 7 | Average 3.5 Last 3 / 14 | 5.10 | Steamed 4 · Stable 1 · Drifted 1 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 17% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-07-28 · Galway |
| call the cavalry | 4 | Average 5.2 Last 5 / 9 | 15.82 | Steamed 2 · Stable 1 · Drifted 1 (4 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 25% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 25% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 25% | Descriptive2026-04-23 · Dundalk |
| little sure shot | 5 | Average 5.0 Last 6 / 15 | 140.00 | Steamed 0 · Stable 1 · Drifted 4 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 40% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-07-08 · Fairyhouse |
| brigids charm | 1 | Average — Last — | — | — | 10% shorter: — 25% shorter: — 50% shorter: — | Limited2026-07-28 · Galway |
| galavanting | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| aghadrum boy | 2 | Average 5.0 Last — | — | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-08-01 · Galway |
| shes too kool | 7 | Average 8.6 Last 11 / 11 | 50.62 | Steamed 2 · Stable 2 · Drifted 3 (7 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 17% | Established2026-06-27 · Curragh |
| steppinoncats | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| eldorado glory | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| strike de vega | 2 | Average 6.0 Last 5 / 8 | 52.63 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-05-16 · Navan |
| hurleys hill | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| trovao dourado | 2 | Average 8.5 Last 13 / 14 | 948.13 | Steamed 0 · Stable 1 · Drifted 1 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 50% | Limited2026-08-06 · Leopardstown |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
call the cavalryPressure
call the cavalryTracking
trek homeMidfield
emizapunica granatumlittle sure shotbrigids charmgalavantingaghadrum boysteppinoncatseldorado glorystrike de vegahurleys hilltrovao douradoClosers
call the cavalryRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.4
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Prominent
Front 0.27 · Finish -0.10
Connections
Quiet
Daniel James Murphy · Terry Casey(7)
Draw
High · A/E 1.03
2034 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.2
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
D K Weld · Paddy Harnett
Draw
High · A/E 1.03
2034 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.0
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.4
Recent
Declining
Trend -15
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Weak
C 0/0 · D 0/4 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.23 · Finish -0.10
Connections
Steady
Mrs John Harrington · Keithen Kennedy
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.99
1744 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -7.6
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/4 · D 0/1 · G 0/4
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.32 · Finish 0.07
Connections
Quiet
Chris Timmons · Milo Malone(7)
Draw
High · A/E 1.03
2034 matched runners
Historical market
4 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.6
Recent
Declining
Trend -37
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.15 · Finish -0.60
Connections
Steady
Henry De Bromhead · Adam Grant(7)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.98
2122 matched runners
Historical market
5 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Mark Fahey · Reese Holohan(4)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.99
1744 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Henry De Bromhead · Conor Cusack(7)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.98
2122 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Quiet
P J F Murphy · Rory Mulligan
Draw
Low · A/E 0.98
2122 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.4
Recent
Improving
Trend 22
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/3 · G 0/0
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.11 · Finish -0.32
Connections
Steady
Ms Claire Oconnell · Adam Browne-Souza(4)
Draw
High · A/E 1.03
2034 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.6
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Quiet
Rory Anthony Devine · Jack Cleary
Draw
High · A/E 1.03
2034 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Noel Meade · Mel Sheridan(7)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.98
2122 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Improving
Trend 4
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.20 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
A Oliver · Orla Tynan(4)
Draw
High · A/E 1.03
2034 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Patrick J Flynn · Robyn Donaghue-Leahy(4)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.98
2122 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Declining
Trend -6
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.20 · Finish -0.80
Connections
Steady
Ciaran Murphy · Patrick Mcgettigan
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.99
1744 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.5
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 12 · Dundalk (AW)
3:30 Dundalk (AW)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden
Forecast reading
Near dead heat at the top
Top-two win-probability separation: 0.48 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Very limited
19%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history7/13
Usable Official Rating0/13
Informative pace profile0/13
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Near dead heat at the top
1
highest order
11.7%Win
2
magna cum laude
11.2%Win
Leader separation0.48pp
Race shape
No clear leader
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureLight
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioEven
CollapseLow
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderhighest orderUnclear
Pace pressureLightNo clear leader
Top threathighest order1/8 · Yard
Best closerhighest orderNeutral
Field abilityUnratedInsufficient OR coverage
Race chaosCompetitive68
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| highest order | 0.00 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 1/8 · FairYard | 0.00Neutral | Hot |
| magna cum laude | 0.00 · #10Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| ile de france | 0.00 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| aachen | 0.00 · #1Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Declining | Strong | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| equus victor | 0.00 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Quiet |
| epic arch | 0.00 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| verona basilica | 0.00 · #12Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| alreem | 0.00 · #2Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| bex noir | 0.00 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Quiet |
| lusted | 0.00 · #9Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Weak | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| youveonlyonemother | 0.00 · #13Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| moliere | 0.00 · #11Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Weak | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| king paddy | 0.00 · #8Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Weak | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Dundalk (AW) 1m draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 474 races
Going: Standard13 runnersPolytrackStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E 1.012298 runners
MiddleA/E 0.961892 runners
HighA/E 1.022181 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Partial · 7 of 13 experienced runners
Archive coverage
7 of 13 runners
16 earlier WIN races matched
aachen · pre-off
Steamed 0 · Stable 1 · Drifted 9
10 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
aachen · in-play support
10%: 8 runs · 80%
25%: 7 runs · 70% · 50%: 5 runs · 50%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| highest order | 1 | Average 3.0 Last 3 / 6 | 10.79 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-23 · Leopardstown |
| magna cum laude | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| ile de france | 1 | Average 6.0 Last 6 / 18 | 32.00 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-22 · Naas |
| aachen | 10 | Average 11.3 Last 10 / 10 | 34.00 | Steamed 0 · Stable 1 · Drifted 9 (10 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 80% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 70% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 50% | Established2017-05-20 · Uttoxeter |
| equus victor | 1 | Average 2.0 Last 2 / 7 | 4.20 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-03-15 · Curragh |
| epic arch | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| verona basilica | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| alreem | 1 | Average 7.0 Last 7 / 13 | 65.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 100% | Limited2026-06-28 · Curragh |
| bex noir | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| lusted | 1 | Average 10.0 Last 10 / 12 | 85.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-23 · Leopardstown |
| youveonlyonemother | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| moliere | 1 | Average 8.0 Last 8 / 8 | 124.19 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-27 · Galway |
| king paddy | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
highest orderPressure
No reliable signalTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
highest ordermagna cum laudeile de franceaachenequus victorepic archverona basilicaalreembex noirlustedyouveonlyonemothermoliereking paddyClosers
No reliable signalRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Hot
G M Lyons · Gary Carroll
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.96
1892 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
A P Obrien · Ronan Whelan
Draw
Low · A/E 1.01
2298 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
A P Obrien · Wayne Lordan
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.96
1892 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Declining
Trend -35
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
A P Obrien · Jack Cleary(5)
Draw
Low · A/E 1.01
2298 matched runners
Historical market
10 runs
Avg BSP rank 11.3
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Quiet
Daniel James Murphy · Dylan Browne Mcmonagle
Draw
High · A/E 1.02
2181 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Andrew Slattery · Andrew Slattery
Draw
Low · A/E 1.01
2298 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Donnacha Aidan Obrien · Gavin Ryan
Draw
High · A/E 1.02
2181 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Donnacha Aidan Obrien · Chris Hayes
Draw
High · A/E 1.02
2181 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Quiet
F G Hand · Robert Whearty
Draw
Low · A/E 1.01
2298 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Josh Halley · Seamie Heffernan
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.96
1892 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 10.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Paul W Flynn · Leigh Roche
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.96
1892 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
David Marnane · Luke Mcateer
Draw
Low · A/E 1.01
2298 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Paul W Flynn · Jack Kearney(3)
Draw
High · A/E 1.02
2181 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 13 · Dundalk (AW)
4:00 Dundalk (AW)
BAR 1 Casino "Slot Games & Live Casino" Handicap
Forecast reading
Competitive top group
Top-two win-probability separation: 2.24 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
81%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history14/14
Usable Official Rating14/14
Informative pace profile12/14
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Competitive top group
1
never mind me
10.7%Win
2
famous enough
8.5%Win
Leader separation2.24pp
Race shape
No clear leader
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureLight
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioEven
CollapseLow
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderrampageUnclear
Pace pressureLightNo clear leader
Top threatfamous enough4/8 · Ability, Form, Trip
Best closermovin and groovinStrong finisher
Field abilitynever mind meDominant
Race chaosCompetitive62
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| never mind me | 0.00 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +9.4Dominant | Declining | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| famous enough | -0.20 · #12Hold-up | Waiting ride | No recent class line | +4.4Strong | Improving | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Trip | 0.02Neutral | Steady |
| bullet bourbon | -0.08 · #9Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +6.4Dominant | Improving | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form | -0.24Weak finisher | Steady |
| cause i like you | -0.02 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -1.6Below field | Stable | Similar | 1/8 · FairTrip | -0.17Neutral | Steady |
| queen leila | -0.04 · #7Hold-up | Waiting ride | No recent class line | +6.4Dominant | Improving | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Trip | -0.39Weak finisher | Steady |
| tenacious | 0.01 · #4Hold-up | Waiting ride | No recent class line | +1.4Competitive | Improving | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility, Form | -0.07Neutral | Steady |
| roman harry | -0.10 · #11Hold-up | Waiting ride | No recent class line | +4.4Strong | Stable | Similar | 2/8 · FairAbility | -0.11Neutral | Steady |
| reponse finale | -0.07 · #8Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -3.6Below field | Stable | Similar | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.16Neutral | Steady |
| master garvey | 0.09 · #2Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -10.6Below field | Improving | Similar | 2/8 · FairForm, Trip | -0.16Neutral | Quiet |
| movin and groovin | 0.04 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +1.4Competitive | Stable | Similar | 2/8 · FairAbility, Trip | 0.37Strong finisher | Steady |
| beau army | -0.09 · #10Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +0.4Competitive | Improving | Similar | 2/8 · FairAbility, Form | -0.02Neutral | Steady |
| six wings | -0.22 · #14Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -5.6Below field | Stable | Similar | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.64Weak finisher | Steady |
| rampage | 0.10 · #1Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -5.6Below field | Declining | Similar | 1/8 · FairTrip | -0.19Weak finisher | Steady |
| misava | -0.20 · #13Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -7.6Below field | Improving | Similar | 1/8 · FairForm | -0.53Weak finisher | Quiet |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Dundalk (AW) 1m draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 474 races
Going: Standard14 runnersPolytrackStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E 1.012298 runners
MiddleA/E 0.961892 runners
HighA/E 1.022181 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 14 of 14 experienced runners
Archive coverage
14 of 14 runners
346 earlier WIN races matched
rampage · pre-off
Steamed 20 · Stable 11 · Drifted 30
61 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
rampage · in-play support
10%: 26 runs · 43%
25%: 18 runs · 30% · 50%: 10 runs · 16%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| never mind me | 10 | Average 4.9 Last 13 / 14 | 51.09 | Steamed 5 · Stable 2 · Drifted 2 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2024-10-01 · Bath |
| famous enough | 36 | Average 7.1 Last 5 / 18 | 12.00 | Steamed 6 · Stable 6 · Drifted 17 (29 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 9 runs · 32% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 14% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 11% | Established2026-07-22 · Naas |
| bullet bourbon | 15 | Average 8.9 Last 10 / 11 | 42.00 | Steamed 5 · Stable 4 · Drifted 6 (15 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 27% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 20% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 7% | Established2026-07-12 · Dundalk |
| cause i like you | 14 | Average 6.6 Last 2 / 12 | 4.96 | Steamed 6 · Stable 1 · Drifted 7 (14 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 57% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 36% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 21% | Established2026-07-14 · Killarney |
| queen leila | 10 | Average 5.9 Last 7 / 10 | 15.50 | Steamed 3 · Stable 0 · Drifted 7 (10 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 30% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 10% | Established2026-04-23 · Dundalk |
| tenacious | 8 | Average 8.4 Last 6 / 9 | 13.84 | Steamed 4 · Stable 0 · Drifted 4 (8 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 25% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 12% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 12% | Established2026-07-08 · Fairyhouse |
| roman harry | 48 | Average 6.5 Last 6 / 14 | 17.50 | Steamed 13 · Stable 11 · Drifted 20 (44 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 17 runs · 39% 25% shorter: 12 runs · 27% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 14% | Established2026-07-25 · Gowran Park |
| reponse finale | 23 | Average 9.9 Last — | — | Steamed 5 · Stable 3 · Drifted 12 (20 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 30% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 25% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 20% | Established2026-06-12 · Fairyhouse |
| master garvey | 63 | Average 6.1 Last 3 / 17 | 8.00 | Steamed 20 · Stable 11 · Drifted 24 (55 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 22 runs · 40% 25% shorter: 10 runs · 18% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 7% | Established2026-08-06 · Leopardstown |
| movin and groovin | 17 | Average 5.4 Last 13 / 14 | 30.78 | Steamed 9 · Stable 3 · Drifted 4 (16 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 38% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 25% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 19% | Established2026-07-12 · Dundalk |
| beau army | 22 | Average 6.9 Last 5 / 14 | 15.00 | Steamed 6 · Stable 3 · Drifted 9 (18 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 44% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 38% | Established2026-08-07 · Gowran Park |
| six wings | 7 | Average 10.2 Last — | — | Steamed 1 · Stable 2 · Drifted 3 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 25% | Established2026-07-20 · Ballinrobe |
| rampage | 68 | Average 6.6 Last 7 / 14 | 17.50 | Steamed 20 · Stable 11 · Drifted 30 (61 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 26 runs · 43% 25% shorter: 18 runs · 30% 50% shorter: 10 runs · 16% | Established2026-07-12 · Dundalk |
| misava | 5 | Average 11.2 Last 12 / 15 | 75.00 | Steamed 0 · Stable 1 · Drifted 3 (4 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 25% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-06-30 · Roscommon |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
rampagePressure
No reliable signalTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
never mind mebullet bourboncause i like youreponse finalemaster garveymovin and groovinbeau armysix wingsrampagemisavaClosers
movin and groovinRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +9.4
Recent
Declining
Trend -6
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Weak
C 0/0 · D 0/4 · G 0/4
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
David Geraghty · Seamie Heffernan
Draw
Low · A/E 1.01
2298 matched runners
Historical market
10 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.9
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.4
Recent
Improving
Trend 10
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 1/6 · D 2/13 · G 1/6
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.20 · Finish 0.02
Connections
Steady
Patrick T Foley · Luke Mcateer
Draw
Low · A/E 1.01
2298 matched runners
Historical market
36 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.1
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +6.4
Recent
Improving
Trend 6
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 1/3 · D 0/2 · G 1/3
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.08 · Finish -0.24
Connections
Steady
T G Mccourt · Dylan Browne Mcmonagle
Draw
High · A/E 1.02
2181 matched runners
Historical market
15 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.9
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.6
Recent
Stable
Trend -2
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 0/8 · D 1/5 · G 0/8
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.02 · Finish -0.17
Connections
Steady
Michael Mulvany · Wesley Joyce(3)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.96
1892 matched runners
Historical market
14 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.6
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +6.4
Recent
Improving
Trend 13
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 1/7 · D 1/3 · G 1/8
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.04 · Finish -0.39
Connections
Steady
Noel C Kelly · Patrick Mcgettigan(5)
Draw
High · A/E 1.02
2181 matched runners
Historical market
10 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.9
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.4
Recent
Improving
Trend 28
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/2 · D 0/2 · G 0/2
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.01 · Finish -0.07
Connections
Steady
Mrs John Harrington · Shane Foley
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.96
1892 matched runners
Historical market
8 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.4
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.4
Recent
Stable
Trend -2
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Weak
C 1/9 · D 0/17 · G 2/14
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.10 · Finish -0.11
Connections
Steady
S M Duffy · Chris Hayes
Draw
High · A/E 1.02
2181 matched runners
Historical market
48 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -3.6
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Weak
C 0/4 · D 0/6 · G 0/4
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.07 · Finish -0.16
Connections
Steady
Gavin Cromwell · Robert Whearty
Draw
High · A/E 1.02
2181 matched runners
Historical market
23 runs
Avg BSP rank 9.9
Ability
Below field
OR edge -10.6
Recent
Improving
Trend 5
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 1/18 · D 1/22 · G 1/18
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.09 · Finish -0.16
Connections
Quiet
Joseph Anthony Murray · Declan Mcdonogh
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.96
1892 matched runners
Historical market
63 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.1
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.4
Recent
Stable
Trend -2
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 2/10 · D 1/3 · G 2/10
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.04 · Finish 0.37
Connections
Steady
David Marnane · Nathan Crosse
Draw
High · A/E 1.02
2181 matched runners
Historical market
17 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.4
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.4
Recent
Improving
Trend 20
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Weak
C 2/8 · D 0/4 · G 2/8
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.09 · Finish -0.02
Connections
Steady
Adrian Mcguinness · Adam Caffrey
Draw
Low · A/E 1.01
2298 matched runners
Historical market
22 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.9
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.6
Recent
Stable
Trend 1
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/3 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.22 · Finish -0.64
Connections
Steady
Paul W Flynn · Leigh Roche
Draw
High · A/E 1.02
2181 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 10.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.6
Recent
Declining
Trend -8
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 2/12 · D 2/39 · G 2/12
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.10 · Finish -0.19
Connections
Steady
T G Mccourt · James Ryan
Draw
Low · A/E 1.01
2298 matched runners
Historical market
68 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -7.6
Recent
Improving
Trend 14
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.20 · Finish -0.53
Connections
Quiet
Tracey Collins · Ronan Whelan
Draw
High · A/E 1.02
2181 matched runners
Historical market
5 runs
Avg BSP rank 11.2
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 14 · Dundalk (AW)
4:35 Dundalk (AW)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Red God Handicap
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 3.85 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history14/14
Usable Official Rating14/14
Informative pace profile14/14
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
nermal
11.2%Win
2
genoah
7.4%Win
Leader separation3.85pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadernermalLikely leader
Pace pressureStrongLeader under pressure
Top threatgenoah4/8 · Ability, Form, Trip
Best closernermalStrong finisher
Field abilityiron fistDominant
Race chaosCompetitive77
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nermal | 0.70 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | No recent class line | -1.6Below field | Improving | Weaker | 2/8 · FairForm, Trip | 0.60Strong finisher | Steady |
| genoah | -0.13 · #13Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +5.4Strong | Improving | Weaker | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Trip | 0.31Strong finisher | Steady |
| steel cut | -0.19 · #14Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -5.6Below field | Declining | Weaker | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.33Strong finisher | Steady |
| iron fist | 0.20 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +10.4Dominant | Improving | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form | 0.11Finishes well | Steady |
| tribal star | 0.20 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +2.4Competitive | Improving | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Trip | 0.13Finishes well | Steady |
| touch the moon | 0.35 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | No recent class line | +4.4Strong | Improving | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form | 0.05Late positive | Quiet |
| star harbour | 0.12 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +5.4Strong | Declining | Similar | 2/8 · FairAbility | 0.04Late positive | Steady |
| follow me | -0.12 · #12Hold-up | Pace to aim at | No recent class line | -5.6Below field | Stable | Weaker | 2/8 · FairShape | -0.02Neutral | Steady |
| quatre bras | -0.06 · #11Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -6.6Below field | Improving | Similar | 2/8 · FairForm, Trip | 0.21Finishes well | Steady |
| apercu | 0.30 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | No recent class line | +5.4Strong | Improving | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Trip | 0.28Finishes well | Steady |
| cala bonita | 0.07 · #8Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -8.6Below field | Improving | Weaker | 2/8 · FairForm, Trip | 0.24Finishes well | Steady |
| beauparc | 0.04 · #10Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -5.6Below field | Improving | Weaker | 1/8 · FairForm | 0.16Finishes well | Quiet |
| crypto force | 0.06 · #9Hold-up | Pace to aim at | No recent class line | +2.4Competitive | Stable | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Shape | -0.12Neutral | Steady |
| slieve binnian | 0.20 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -1.6Below field | Declining | Similar | 1/8 · FairTrip | 0.41Strong finisher | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Dundalk (AW) 1m2f150y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 317 races
Going: Standard14 runnersPolytrackStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E 0.971545 runners
MiddleA/E 0.981268 runners
HighA/E 1.051479 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 14 of 14 experienced runners
Archive coverage
14 of 14 runners
341 earlier WIN races matched
star harbour · pre-off
Steamed 21 · Stable 13 · Drifted 37
71 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
star harbour · in-play support
10%: 41 runs · 58%
25%: 30 runs · 42% · 50%: 14 runs · 20%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nermal | 6 | Average 4.5 Last 7 / 15 | 18.00 | Steamed 2 · Stable 2 · Drifted 2 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 33% | Established2026-07-27 · Galway |
| genoah | 20 | Average 5.6 Last 1 / 11 | 6.20 | Steamed 8 · Stable 0 · Drifted 9 (17 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 47% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 35% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 24% | Established2026-08-03 · Naas |
| steel cut | 6 | Average 6.4 Last 7 / 10 | 16.18 | Steamed 2 · Stable 1 · Drifted 2 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 40% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-07-20 · Ballinrobe |
| iron fist | 15 | Average 3.9 Last 11 / 22 | 34.00 | Steamed 9 · Stable 2 · Drifted 3 (14 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 7 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 29% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 14% | Established2026-07-11 · York |
| tribal star | 23 | Average 5.7 Last 15 / 18 | 70.00 | Steamed 7 · Stable 5 · Drifted 11 (23 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 13 runs · 57% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 30% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 22% | Established2026-07-31 · Galway |
| touch the moon | 15 | Average 4.3 Last 10 / 18 | 24.00 | Steamed 5 · Stable 1 · Drifted 9 (15 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 11 runs · 73% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 33% | Established2026-07-31 · Galway |
| star harbour | 75 | Average 7.3 Last 5 / 7 | 8.20 | Steamed 21 · Stable 13 · Drifted 37 (71 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 41 runs · 58% 25% shorter: 30 runs · 42% 50% shorter: 14 runs · 20% | Established2026-07-18 · Ripon |
| follow me | 20 | Average 7.7 Last — | — | Steamed 6 · Stable 4 · Drifted 7 (17 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 7 runs · 41% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 24% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 18% | Established2026-07-30 · Galway |
| quatre bras | 34 | Average 6.3 Last 5 / 6 | 17.00 | Steamed 12 · Stable 3 · Drifted 15 (30 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 12 runs · 40% 25% shorter: 9 runs · 30% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 20% | Established2026-07-16 · Leopardstown |
| apercu | 23 | Average 5.2 Last 7 / 8 | 15.00 | Steamed 11 · Stable 2 · Drifted 8 (21 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 12 runs · 57% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 29% | Established2026-07-23 · Leopardstown |
| cala bonita | 19 | Average 9.0 Last — | — | Steamed 7 · Stable 1 · Drifted 9 (17 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 47% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 35% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 35% | Established2026-08-01 · Galway |
| beauparc | 28 | Average 4.8 Last 2 / 5 | 6.60 | Steamed 9 · Stable 4 · Drifted 13 (26 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 18 runs · 69% 25% shorter: 12 runs · 46% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 19% | Established2026-07-17 · Down Royal |
| crypto force | 25 | Average 6.0 Last 15 / 25 | 34.36 | Steamed 9 · Stable 2 · Drifted 9 (20 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 42% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 26% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 11% | Established2026-03-15 · Curragh |
| slieve binnian | 32 | Average 5.5 Last 10 / 11 | 70.00 | Steamed 14 · Stable 5 · Drifted 11 (30 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 13 runs · 43% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 37% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 23% | Established2026-07-09 · Leopardstown |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
nermalPressure
touch the moonapercuTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
genoahsteel cutiron fisttribal starstar harbourquatre brascala bonitabeauparcslieve binnianClosers
nermalgenoahsteel cutiron fisttribal startouch the moonquatre brasapercucala bonitabeauparcslieve binnianRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.6
Recent
Improving
Trend 14
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 0/2 · D 1/2 · G 0/2
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.70 · Finish 0.60
Connections
Steady
Andrew Slattery · Andrew Slattery
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.98
1268 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.5
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.4
Recent
Improving
Trend 35
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 4/7 · D 3/5 · G 4/8
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.13 · Finish 0.31
Connections
Steady
M D Ocallaghan · Leigh Roche
Draw
High · A/E 1.05
1479 matched runners
Historical market
20 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.6
Recent
Declining
Trend -4
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/1 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.19 · Finish 0.33
Connections
Steady
A Oliver · Wayne Lordan
Draw
High · A/E 1.05
1479 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.4
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +10.4
Recent
Improving
Trend 4
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.20 · Finish 0.11
Connections
Steady
Mrs John Harrington · Shane Foley
Draw
Low · A/E 0.97
1545 matched runners
Historical market
15 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.9
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.4
Recent
Improving
Trend 10
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 2/8 · D 1/4 · G 2/12
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.20 · Finish 0.13
Connections
Steady
Adrian Mcguinness · Adam Caffrey
Draw
High · A/E 1.05
1479 matched runners
Historical market
23 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.7
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.4
Recent
Improving
Trend 12
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.35 · Finish 0.05
Connections
Quiet
William Durkan · Chris Hayes
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.98
1268 matched runners
Historical market
15 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.3
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.4
Recent
Declining
Trend -8
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Weak
C 0/11 · D 0/9 · G 0/13
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.12 · Finish 0.04
Connections
Steady
Adrian Mcguinness · Declan Mcdonogh
Draw
Low · A/E 0.97
1545 matched runners
Historical market
75 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.3
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.6
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 0/4
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.12 · Finish -0.02
Connections
Steady
Ross Osullivan · Dylan Browne Mcmonagle
Draw
High · A/E 1.05
1479 matched runners
Historical market
20 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.7
Ability
Below field
OR edge -6.6
Recent
Improving
Trend 9
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 2/6 · D 2/4 · G 2/6
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.06 · Finish 0.21
Connections
Steady
Richard John Obrien · Gavin Ryan
Draw
Low · A/E 0.97
1545 matched runners
Historical market
34 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.3
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.4
Recent
Improving
Trend 8
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 1/4 · D 3/9 · G 1/4
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.30 · Finish 0.28
Connections
Steady
A Oliver · Ronan Whelan
Draw
Low · A/E 0.97
1545 matched runners
Historical market
23 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -8.6
Recent
Improving
Trend 6
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 2/5 · D 2/4 · G 2/5
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.07 · Finish 0.24
Connections
Steady
Matthew J Smith · Wesley Joyce(3)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.97
1545 matched runners
Historical market
19 runs
Avg BSP rank 9.0
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.6
Recent
Improving
Trend 32
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Weak
C 2/9 · D 0/8 · G 2/9
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.04 · Finish 0.16
Connections
Quiet
Gerard Keane · Seamie Heffernan
Draw
High · A/E 1.05
1479 matched runners
Historical market
28 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.8
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.4
Recent
Stable
Trend 4
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/4 · D 0/3 · G 0/4
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.06 · Finish -0.12
Connections
Steady
M D Ocallaghan · Donagh Oconnor
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.98
1268 matched runners
Historical market
25 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.0
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.6
Recent
Declining
Trend -8
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 4/6 · D 2/6 · G 4/6
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.20 · Finish 0.41
Connections
Steady
David Marnane · Luke Mcateer
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.98
1268 matched runners
Historical market
32 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.5
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 15 · Dundalk (AW)
5:10 Dundalk (AW)
Friday Night Lights Return Weekly From 18th September Handicap
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 3.11 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history14/14
Usable Official Rating14/14
Informative pace profile14/14
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
rising sky
14.4%Win
2
coul dore
11.2%Win
Leader separation3.11pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Positive
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderbarretstownLikely leader
Pace pressureStrongLeader under pressure
Top threatstorm eric5/8 · Ability, Shape, Form
Best closertortolaFinishes well
Field abilityrising skyStrong
Race chaosChaotic84
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| rising sky | -0.07 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +5.0Strong | Declining | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip | -0.12Neutral | Steady |
| coul dore | -0.09 · #10Hold-up | Pace to aim at | No recent class line | +2.0Competitive | Stable | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Shape | -0.10Neutral | Steady |
| wingit | 0.11 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -3.0Below field | Improving | Similar | 1/8 · FairForm | 0.06Late positive | Steady |
| navajo point | -0.22 · #14Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +5.0Strong | Improving | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form | -0.02Neutral | Quiet |
| copper craft | -0.07 · #8Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | 0.0Competitive | Improving | Similar | 2/8 · FairAbility, Form | 0.02Neutral | Steady |
| tortola | -0.10 · #11Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +2.0Competitive | Stable | Similar | 1/8 · FairAbility | 0.10Finishes well | Steady |
| storm eric | -0.17 · #13Hold-up | Pace to aim at | No recent class line | +3.0Strong | Improving | Stronger | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Shape, Form | 0.02Neutral | Quiet |
| retro gal | -0.15 · #12Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +5.0Strong | Improving | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form | -0.30Weak finisher | Steady |
| barretstown | 0.52 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | No recent class line | -5.0Below field | Improving | Similar | 2/8 · FairForm, Trip | -0.26Weak finisher | Steady |
| anchors away | 0.28 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | No recent class line | +4.0Strong | Improving | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form | -0.46Weak finisher | Quiet |
| dancing steve | 0.25 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +5.0Strong | Declining | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility | -0.01Neutral | Steady |
| my vonnie | -0.01 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -6.0Below field | Declining | Similar | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.04Neutral | Quiet |
| threebiggulps | 0.16 · #4Hold-up | Pace to aim at | No recent class line | -9.0Below field | Improving | Similar | 3/8 · LiveShape, Form | -0.20Weak finisher | Quiet |
| shahada ace | -0.07 · #9Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -8.0Below field | Stable | Similar | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.50Weak finisher | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Dundalk (AW) 1m2f150y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 317 races
Going: Standard14 runnersPolytrackStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E 0.971545 runners
MiddleA/E 0.981268 runners
HighA/E 1.051479 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 14 of 14 experienced runners
Archive coverage
14 of 14 runners
300 earlier WIN races matched
barretstown · pre-off
Steamed 25 · Stable 8 · Drifted 23
56 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
barretstown · in-play support
10%: 29 runs · 52%
25%: 19 runs · 34% · 50%: 9 runs · 16%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| rising sky | 29 | Average 6.5 Last 3 / 7 | 7.37 | Steamed 9 · Stable 5 · Drifted 6 (20 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 10 runs · 56% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 11% | Established2026-07-17 · Down Royal |
| coul dore | 5 | Average 7.8 Last 2 / 12 | 5.58 | Steamed 3 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 60% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 20% | Descriptive2026-06-20 · Down Royal |
| wingit | 12 | Average 7.9 Last 1 / 12 | 4.37 | Steamed 5 · Stable 3 · Drifted 4 (12 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 42% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 8% | Established2026-07-24 · Cork |
| navajo point | 7 | Average 11.0 Last 10 / 14 | 26.00 | Steamed 0 · Stable 2 · Drifted 5 (7 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 14% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 14% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 14% | Established2026-07-12 · Dundalk |
| copper craft | 13 | Average 6.7 Last 4 / 11 | 11.50 | Steamed 6 · Stable 0 · Drifted 6 (12 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 17% | Established2026-07-20 · Ballinrobe |
| tortola | 12 | Average 9.1 Last 2 / 13 | 7.60 | Steamed 4 · Stable 1 · Drifted 6 (11 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 45% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 27% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 18% | Established2026-07-15 · Killarney |
| storm eric | 56 | Average 7.4 Last 12 / 14 | 500.00 | Steamed 7 · Stable 8 · Drifted 35 (50 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 21 runs · 43% 25% shorter: 10 runs · 20% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 10% | Established2026-08-07 · Wexford |
| retro gal | 7 | Average 7.5 Last 9 / 12 | 21.08 | Steamed 3 · Stable 0 · Drifted 3 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 17% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 17% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-07-11 · Navan |
| barretstown | 72 | Average 6.3 Last 11 / 14 | 57.59 | Steamed 25 · Stable 8 · Drifted 23 (56 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 29 runs · 52% 25% shorter: 19 runs · 34% 50% shorter: 9 runs · 16% | Established2026-06-05 · Fairyhouse |
| anchors away | 12 | Average 13.2 Last 21 / 22 | 240.00 | Steamed 4 · Stable 1 · Drifted 5 (10 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 60% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 60% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 30% | Established2026-07-09 · Leopardstown |
| dancing steve | 30 | Average 7.2 Last 10 / 22 | 28.11 | Steamed 9 · Stable 4 · Drifted 15 (28 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 18 runs · 64% 25% shorter: 12 runs · 43% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 21% | Established2026-08-06 · Leopardstown |
| my vonnie | 21 | Average 7.5 Last — | — | Steamed 8 · Stable 2 · Drifted 8 (18 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 10 runs · 56% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 28% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 11% | Established2026-07-25 · Gowran Park |
| threebiggulps | 6 | Average 13.0 Last 12 / 15 | 65.89 | Steamed 1 · Stable 1 · Drifted 3 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 75% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 25% | Established2026-07-02 · Bellewstown |
| shahada ace | 18 | Average 10.0 Last 11 / 13 | 50.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 1 · Drifted 14 (16 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 10 runs · 62% 25% shorter: 10 runs · 62% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 31% | Established2026-07-25 · Gowran Park |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
barretstownPressure
anchors awayTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
rising skywingitnavajo pointcopper crafttortolaretro galdancing stevemy vonnieshahada aceClosers
wingittortolaRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.0
Recent
Declining
Trend -6
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 1/8 · D 1/2 · G 1/9
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.07 · Finish -0.12
Connections
Steady
Anthony Mccann · Patrick Mcgettigan(5)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.97
1545 matched runners
Historical market
29 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.5
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.0
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/2 · D 0/1 · G 0/2
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.09 · Finish -0.10
Connections
Steady
W R Crawford · Seamie Heffernan
Draw
High · A/E 1.05
1479 matched runners
Historical market
5 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -3.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 4
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/5 · D 0/0 · G 0/5
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.11 · Finish 0.06
Connections
Steady
Patrick Magee · Terry Casey(7)
Draw
High · A/E 1.05
1479 matched runners
Historical market
12 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.9
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 4
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.22 · Finish -0.02
Connections
Quiet
Martin Hassett · Paddy Harnett(5)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.97
1545 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 11.0
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 16
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/4 · D 0/2 · G 0/4
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.07 · Finish 0.02
Connections
Steady
A Oliver · Robert Whearty
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.98
1268 matched runners
Historical market
13 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.7
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.0
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/5 · D 0/0 · G 0/5
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.10 · Finish 0.10
Connections
Steady
Eoin Griffin · Jack Kearney(3)
Draw
High · A/E 1.05
1479 matched runners
Historical market
12 runs
Avg BSP rank 9.1
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 6
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Weak
C 3/29 · D 0/10 · G 3/29
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.17 · Finish 0.02
Connections
Quiet
Jamie Flynn · Adam Grant(7)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.97
1545 matched runners
Historical market
56 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.4
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 14
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.15 · Finish -0.30
Connections
Steady
Henry De Bromhead · Conor Cusack(7)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.97
1545 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 14
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 3/19 · D 3/18 · G 3/19
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.52 · Finish -0.26
Connections
Steady
Conor Odwyer · Nathan Crosse
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.98
1268 matched runners
Historical market
72 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.3
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 13
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/3 · D 0/3 · G 0/3
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.28 · Finish -0.46
Connections
Quiet
M G Quinn · Wesley Joyce(3)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.98
1268 matched runners
Historical market
12 runs
Avg BSP rank 13.2
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.0
Recent
Declining
Trend -42
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Weak
C 0/7 · D 0/10 · G 0/8
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.25 · Finish -0.01
Connections
Steady
Adrian Mcguinness · James Ryan
Draw
Low · A/E 0.97
1545 matched runners
Historical market
30 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -6.0
Recent
Declining
Trend -14
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/11 · D 0/2 · G 0/11
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.01 · Finish -0.04
Connections
Quiet
M M Rice · Rory Mulligan(5)
Draw
High · A/E 1.05
1479 matched runners
Historical market
21 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -9.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 5
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.16 · Finish -0.20
Connections
Quiet
J G Coogan · Keithen Kennedy(5)
Draw
High · A/E 1.05
1479 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 13.0
Ability
Below field
OR edge -8.0
Recent
Stable
Trend -4
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.07 · Finish -0.50
Connections
Steady
Andrew Slattery · Feenagh Moran(10)
Draw
High · A/E 1.05
1479 matched runners
Historical market
18 runs
Avg BSP rank 10.0
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 16 · Lingfield (AW)
5:13 Lingfield (AW)
Download The At The Races App Handicap (Bath Summer Stayers' Series Qualifier)
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 3.47 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history9/9
Usable Official Rating9/9
Informative pace profile9/9
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
tenadaay
15.4%Win
2
belle of kt
11.9%Win
Leader separation3.47pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureModerate
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Negative
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderpureis kingLikely leader
Pace pressureModerateLeader under pressure
Top threattenadaay3/8 · Ability, Class, Form
Best closerbelle of ktFinishes well
Field abilitytenadaayCompetitive
Race chaosChaotic83
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tenadaay | 0.01 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 4 | +2.8Competitive | Improving | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Form | -0.20Weak finisher | Steady |
| belle of kt | 0.27 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +1.8Competitive | Declining | Similar | 1/8 · FairAbility | 0.13Finishes well | Steady |
| pureis king | 0.34 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +0.8Competitive | Improving | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Yard | -0.02Neutral | Hot |
| beggarman | 0.10 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +1.8Competitive | Improving | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility, Form | 0.08Late positive | Steady |
| into combat | -0.10 · #8Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -3.2Below field | Declining | Stronger | 1/8 · FairYard | -0.50Weak finisher | Hot |
| belle amie | 0.15 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | -1.2Below field | Stable | Stronger | 1/8 · FairClass | -0.14Neutral | Quiet |
| maywedance | -0.07 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class | -1.2Below field | Stable | Stronger | 1/8 · FairClass | -0.07Neutral | Steady |
| sea of charm | 0.26 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +0.8Competitive | Stable | Similar | 1/8 · FairAbility | -0.03Neutral | Quiet |
| louies folly | -0.13 · #9Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 2 | -2.2Below field | Declining | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveClass, Shape | -0.07Neutral | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Lingfield (AW) 1m5f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going · all field sizes · 56 races
Going: Standard9 runnersPolytrackStalls: Inside
LowA/E 1.04193 runners
MiddleA/E 0.94157 runners
HighA/E 1.00172 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 9 of 9 experienced runners
Archive coverage
9 of 9 runners
234 earlier WIN races matched
sea of charm · pre-off
Steamed 27 · Stable 10 · Drifted 31
68 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
sea of charm · in-play support
10%: 38 runs · 57%
25%: 30 runs · 45% · 50%: 14 runs · 21%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tenadaay | 9 | Average 6.2 Last 2 / 8 | 4.45 | Steamed 2 · Stable 1 · Drifted 6 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 62% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 25% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 25% | Established2026-03-11 · Southwell |
| belle of kt | 15 | Average 4.5 Last 2 / 4 | 3.45 | Steamed 5 · Stable 2 · Drifted 8 (15 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 10 runs · 71% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 21% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 21% | Established2026-07-31 · Bath |
| pureis king | 13 | Average 3.9 Last 1 / 9 | 3.09 | Steamed 4 · Stable 1 · Drifted 5 (10 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 30% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 10% | Established2026-07-28 · Ffos Las |
| beggarman | 53 | Average 4.3 Last 4 / 4 | 10.50 | Steamed 26 · Stable 5 · Drifted 20 (51 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 36 runs · 71% 25% shorter: 24 runs · 47% 50% shorter: 11 runs · 22% | Established2026-07-30 · Nottingham |
| into combat | 11 | Average 3.9 Last 1 / 11 | 4.30 | Steamed 4 · Stable 2 · Drifted 3 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 11% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-08-06 · Southwell |
| belle amie | 14 | Average 4.2 Last 1 / 4 | 2.93 | Steamed 5 · Stable 2 · Drifted 5 (12 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 8 runs · 67% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 33% | Established2026-06-26 · Newmarket |
| maywedance | 24 | Average 6.5 Last 7 / 7 | 33.27 | Steamed 8 · Stable 2 · Drifted 13 (23 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 12 runs · 52% 25% shorter: 10 runs · 43% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 22% | Established2026-07-08 · Kempton |
| sea of charm | 77 | Average 4.9 Last 3 / 4 | 5.93 | Steamed 27 · Stable 10 · Drifted 31 (68 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 38 runs · 57% 25% shorter: 30 runs · 45% 50% shorter: 14 runs · 21% | Established2026-07-31 · Bath |
| louies folly | 18 | Average 5.7 Last 7 / 7 | 246.50 | Steamed 6 · Stable 0 · Drifted 8 (14 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 9 runs · 64% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 21% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 7% | Established2026-07-31 · Wolverhampton |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
pureis kingPressure
belle of ktsea of charmTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
tenadaaybeggarmaninto combatbelle amiemaywedanceClosers
belle of ktbeggarmanRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.8
Recent
Improving
Trend 10
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 4
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 1/3
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.01 · Finish -0.20
Connections
Steady
Fergal Obrien · Dougie Costello
Draw
Low · A/E 1.04
193 matched runners
Historical market
9 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.2
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.8
Recent
Declining
Trend -13
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/5 · D 0/0 · G 2/10
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.27 · Finish 0.13
Connections
Steady
J S Moore · Millie Wonnacott(5)
Draw
High · A/E 1.00
172 matched runners
Historical market
15 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.5
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.8
Recent
Improving
Trend 17
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.34 · Finish -0.02
Connections
Hot
Faye Bramley · Ryan Kavanagh(3)
Draw
Low · A/E 1.04
193 matched runners
Historical market
13 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.9
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.8
Recent
Improving
Trend 22
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/5 · D 0/2 · G 3/18
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.10 · Finish 0.08
Connections
Steady
Hughie Morrison · Jack Callan
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.94
157 matched runners
Historical market
53 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.3
Ability
Below field
OR edge -3.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -8
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/4
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.10 · Finish -0.50
Connections
Hot
Sir Mark Prescott Bt · Luke Morris
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.94
157 matched runners
Historical market
11 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.9
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.2
Recent
Stable
Trend -2
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 1/5
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.15 · Finish -0.14
Connections
Quiet
David Simcock · Taryn Langley(5)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.94
157 matched runners
Historical market
14 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.2
Recent
Stable
Trend 4
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/5
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.07 · Finish -0.07
Connections
Steady
John Oshea · Mason Paetel(5)
Draw
Low · A/E 1.04
193 matched runners
Historical market
24 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.5
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.8
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 2/15 · D 0/1 · G 4/32
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.26 · Finish -0.03
Connections
Quiet
Georgina Nicholls · William Cox
Draw
High · A/E 1.00
172 matched runners
Historical market
77 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.9
Ability
Below field
OR edge -2.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -20
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 2
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/4
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.13 · Finish -0.07
Connections
Steady
Fergal Obrien · Laura Coughlan(3)
Draw
High · A/E 1.00
172 matched runners
Historical market
18 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.7
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 17 · Lingfield (AW)
5:46 Lingfield (AW)
EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (Bands C/D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)
Forecast reading
Near dead heat at the top
Top-two win-probability separation: 0.49 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Limited
35%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history8/11
Usable Official Rating0/11
Informative pace profile4/11
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Near dead heat at the top
1
silent sadhu
9.8%Win
2
uncle frank
9.3%Win
Leader separation0.49pp
Race shape
No clear leader
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureLight
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioEven
CollapseLow
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadersilent sadhuHold-up
Pace pressureLightNo clear leader
Top threatlaunchpad2/8 · Class, Yard
Best closersilent sadhuStrong finisher
Field abilityUnratedInsufficient OR coverage
Race chaosCompetitive69
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silent sadhu | -0.35 · #11Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 drop 3 | L2 drop 3 | —Unrated | Stable | Unknown | 1/8 · FairClass | 1.00Strong finisher | Quiet |
| uncle frank | 0.00 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| snow on the beach | 0.00 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 1/8 · FairYard | 0.00Neutral | Hot |
| hes readytorumble | -0.35 · #8Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | —Unrated | Stable | Unknown | 1/8 · FairClass | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| launchpad | 0.00 · #1Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 1 | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 2/8 · FairClass, Yard | 0.00Neutral | Hot |
| postremo | -0.35 · #10Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 same class | L2 drop 2 | —Unrated | Stable | Weak | 1/8 · FairClass | 0.30Strong finisher | Steady |
| pen lan icon | 0.00 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| paradise angel | 0.00 · #2Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| premium seat | 0.00 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| west to rest | 0.00 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 1 | —Unrated | Unclear | Weak | 1/8 · FairClass | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| honeymoon bear | -0.35 · #9Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 same class | L2 same class | —Unrated | Stable | Weak | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.70Weak finisher | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Lingfield (AW) 6f1y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 347 races
Going: Standard11 runnersPolytrackStalls: Inside
LowA/E 0.981211 runners
MiddleA/E 0.97959 runners
HighA/E 1.061120 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Partial · 8 of 11 experienced runners
Archive coverage
8 of 11 runners
14 earlier WIN races matched
hes readytorumble · pre-off
Steamed 0 · Stable 2 · Drifted 0
2 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
hes readytorumble · in-play support
10%: 1 runs · 50%
25%: 1 runs · 50% · 50%: 1 runs · 50%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silent sadhu | 2 | Average 12.0 Last 7 / 9 | 44.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-25 · Ascot |
| uncle frank | 1 | Average 5.0 Last 5 / 10 | 12.82 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-06-01 · Windsor |
| snow on the beach | 1 | Average 6.0 Last 6 / 9 | 14.50 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-05-26 · Bath |
| hes readytorumble | 3 | Average 5.5 Last 6 / 9 | 21.00 | Steamed 0 · Stable 2 · Drifted 0 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 50% | Descriptive2026-07-13 · Windsor |
| launchpad | 1 | Average 12.0 Last 12 / 12 | 290.00 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-13 · Windsor |
| postremo | 2 | Average 7.5 Last 5 / 10 | 45.59 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-30 · Wolverhampton |
| pen lan icon | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| paradise angel | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| premium seat | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| west to rest | 1 | Average 5.0 Last 5 / 10 | 19.89 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-08-04 · Lingfield |
| honeymoon bear | 3 | Average 6.5 Last 4 / 12 | 7.20 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-07-23 · Southwell |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
silent sadhuPressure
No reliable signalTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
uncle franksnow on the beachlaunchpadpen lan iconparadise angelpremium seatwest to restClosers
silent sadhupostremoRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend -2
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 drop 3 | L2 drop 3
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 0/0
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.35 · Finish 1.00
Connections
Quiet
J R Jenkins · Robbie Downey
Draw
High · A/E 1.06
1120 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 12.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Clive Cox · Georgia Dobie
Draw
High · A/E 1.06
1120 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Hot
James Owen · Mason Paetel(5)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.98
1211 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/0
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.35 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Jack Channon · Edward Greatrex
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.97
959 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.5
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Hot
Nick Littmoden · Stevie Donohoe
Draw
High · A/E 1.06
1120 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 12.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend 1
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 2
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/1
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.35 · Finish 0.30
Connections
Steady
J S Moore · Millie Wonnacott(5)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.97
959 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.5
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
David Loughnane · Laura Pearson
Draw
Low · A/E 0.98
1211 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Jamie Osborne · William Carver
Draw
Low · A/E 0.98
1211 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
J S Moore · William Cox
Draw
High · A/E 1.06
1120 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Ed Dunlop · Jack Callan
Draw
Low · A/E 0.98
1211 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend 3
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 0/1
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.35 · Finish -0.70
Connections
Steady
Joseph Parr · Luke Morris
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.97
959 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.5
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 18 · Lingfield (AW)
6:16 Lingfield (AW)
Sky Sports Racing 415 Handicap
Forecast reading
Competitive top group
Top-two win-probability separation: 1.93 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history4/4
Usable Official Rating4/4
Informative pace profile4/4
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Competitive top group
1
london is blue
19.5%Win
2
enter sandman
17.6%Win
Leader separation1.93pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureModerate
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Negative
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderenter sandmanLikely leader
Pace pressureModerateLeader under pressure
Top threatlondon is blue3/8 · Ability, Class
Best closerenter sandmanNeutral
Field abilitylondon is blueStrong
Race chaosCompetitive78
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| london is blue | 0.09 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | +4.2Strong | Declining | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class | -0.12Neutral | Steady |
| enter sandman | 0.39 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | +1.2Competitive | Declining | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip, Yard | -0.00Neutral | Hot |
| wyle cop | 0.33 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +4.2Strong | Declining | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip | -0.25Weak finisher | Quiet |
| stock market | 0.24 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | -9.8Below field | Declining | Weaker | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.37Weak finisher | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Lingfield (AW) 5f6y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 188 races
Going: Standard4 runnersPolytrackStalls: Outside
LowA/E 0.94434 runners
MiddleA/E 1.02313 runners
HighA/E 1.06355 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 4 of 4 experienced runners
Archive coverage
4 of 4 runners
51 earlier WIN races matched
london is blue · pre-off
Steamed 2 · Stable 2 · Drifted 7
11 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
london is blue · in-play support
10%: 4 runs · 36%
25%: 3 runs · 27% · 50%: 1 runs · 9%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| london is blue | 13 | Average 5.4 Last 6 / 12 | 11.31 | Steamed 2 · Stable 2 · Drifted 7 (11 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 36% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 27% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 9% | Established2026-07-27 · Windsor |
| enter sandman | 12 | Average 2.7 Last 2 / 10 | 7.78 | Steamed 3 · Stable 1 · Drifted 7 (11 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 45% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 45% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 27% | Established2026-06-16 · Wolverhampton |
| wyle cop | 13 | Average 6.1 Last 5 / 5 | 11.44 | Steamed 7 · Stable 0 · Drifted 6 (13 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 46% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 23% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 8% | Established2026-07-18 · Doncaster |
| stock market | 13 | Average 5.3 Last 2 / 11 | 8.60 | Steamed 5 · Stable 1 · Drifted 7 (13 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-06-09 · Salisbury |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
enter sandmanPressure
wyle copstock marketTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
london is blueClosers
No reliable signalRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -26
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Weak
C 0/0 · D 0/8 · G 0/2
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.09 · Finish -0.12
Connections
Steady
Robert Cowell · Edward Greatrex
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.02
313 matched runners
Historical market
13 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.4
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -8
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 1/1 · D 1/6 · G 2/6
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.39 · Finish -0.00
Connections
Hot
Richard Spencer · Jack Callan
Draw
Low · A/E 0.94
434 matched runners
Historical market
12 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.7
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -13
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 1/1 · D 1/5 · G 2/6
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.33 · Finish -0.25
Connections
Quiet
Jack Jones · Pierre-Louis Jamin
Draw
Low · A/E 0.94
434 matched runners
Historical market
13 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.1
Ability
Below field
OR edge -9.8
Recent
Declining
Trend -4
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/3 · G 0/1
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.24 · Finish -0.37
Connections
Steady
Tony Carroll · Luke Morris
Draw
High · A/E 1.06
355 matched runners
Historical market
13 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.3
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 19 · Lingfield (AW)
6:46 Lingfield (AW)
Follow @attheraces On Instagram Handicap
Forecast reading
Competitive top group
Top-two win-probability separation: 2.11 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history8/8
Usable Official Rating8/8
Informative pace profile8/8
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Competitive top group
1
kimbara
19.5%Win
2
logi bear
17.4%Win
Leader separation2.11pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureModerate
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderpunchbowl flyerLikely leader
Pace pressureModerateLeader under pressure
Top threatriley rocks5/8 · Ability, Class, Shape, Trip
Best closerhierarchyFinishes well
Field abilitysir alfieStrong
Race chaosCompetitive74
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kimbara | 0.08 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | +1.9Competitive | Declining | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Yard | -0.10Neutral | Hot |
| logi bear | 0.01 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class | +0.9Competitive | Stable | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Trip, Yard | -0.10Neutral | Hot |
| perdy in paris | 0.17 · #4Prominent | Stalking hot pace | L1 drop 2 | L2 same class | L3 same class | +1.9Competitive | Stable | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Shape | 0.07Late positive | Steady |
| hierarchy | -0.05 · #7Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +1.9Competitive | Declining | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Shape, Trip | 0.28Finishes well | Steady |
| far too fizzy | 0.40 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -9.1Below field | Improving | Weaker | 2/8 · FairForm, Trip | -0.30Weak finisher | Steady |
| riley rocks | -0.07 · #8Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 3 | +1.9Competitive | Declining | Stronger | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Shape, Trip | 0.03Late positive | Steady |
| punchbowl flyer | 0.49 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | -4.1Below field | Improving | Stronger | 2/8 · FairForm, Trip | -0.07Neutral | Steady |
| sir alfie | 0.36 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +4.9Strong | Declining | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Trip | -0.29Weak finisher | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Lingfield (AW) 6f1y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 347 races
Going: Standard8 runnersPolytrackStalls: Inside
LowA/E 0.981211 runners
MiddleA/E 0.97959 runners
HighA/E 1.061120 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 8 of 8 experienced runners
Archive coverage
8 of 8 runners
215 earlier WIN races matched
punchbowl flyer · pre-off
Steamed 31 · Stable 9 · Drifted 28
68 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
punchbowl flyer · in-play support
10%: 32 runs · 48%
25%: 22 runs · 33% · 50%: 13 runs · 19%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kimbara | 9 | Average 5.3 Last 7 / 11 | 17.31 | Steamed 2 · Stable 1 · Drifted 3 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 17% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 17% | Established2026-07-10 · Newmarket |
| logi bear | 15 | Average 5.9 Last 5 / 8 | 13.00 | Steamed 10 · Stable 0 · Drifted 5 (15 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 27% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 7% | Established2026-07-21 · Nottingham |
| perdy in paris | 4 | Average 8.0 Last 14 / 14 | 149.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 3 (4 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 75% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 75% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 50% | Descriptive2026-07-28 · Goodwood |
| hierarchy | 65 | Average 5.6 Last 12 / 12 | 52.46 | Steamed 17 · Stable 13 · Drifted 28 (58 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 19 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 13 runs · 22% 50% shorter: 10 runs · 17% | Established2026-07-27 · Southwell |
| far too fizzy | 19 | Average 4.2 Last 3 / 11 | 6.37 | Steamed 5 · Stable 0 · Drifted 10 (15 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 40% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 27% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 20% | Established2026-07-25 · Chester |
| riley rocks | 7 | Average 6.6 Last 23 / 26 | 85.00 | Steamed 3 · Stable 1 · Drifted 3 (7 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 43% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 43% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 29% | Established2026-07-29 · Goodwood |
| punchbowl flyer | 81 | Average 5.9 Last 9 / 11 | 52.76 | Steamed 31 · Stable 9 · Drifted 28 (68 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 32 runs · 48% 25% shorter: 22 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 13 runs · 19% | Established2026-07-30 · Wolverhampton |
| sir alfie | 15 | Average 8.4 Last 5 / 5 | 10.26 | Steamed 4 · Stable 2 · Drifted 7 (13 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 38% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 31% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 23% | Established2026-07-25 · Lingfield |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
punchbowl flyerPressure
far too fizzysir alfieTracking
perdy in parisMidfield
kimbaralogi bearClosers
perdy in parishierarchyRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -7
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.08 · Finish -0.10
Connections
Hot
Richard Spencer · Jack Callan
Draw
High · A/E 1.06
1120 matched runners
Historical market
9 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.3
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.9
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/9 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.01 · Finish -0.10
Connections
Hot
John Butler · Luke Morris
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.97
959 matched runners
Historical market
15 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.9
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.9
Recent
Stable
Trend -3
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 drop 2 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/1 · G 0/2
Pace
Prominent
Front 0.17 · Finish 0.07
Connections
Steady
George Baker · Benoit De La Sayette
Draw
Low · A/E 0.98
1211 matched runners
Historical market
4 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.0
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -16
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/3 · D 6/50 · G 3/20
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.05 · Finish 0.28
Connections
Steady
Jamie Osborne · William Carver
Draw
High · A/E 1.06
1120 matched runners
Historical market
65 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -9.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 6
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/3 · D 1/7 · G 1/11
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.40 · Finish -0.30
Connections
Steady
David Loughnane · Laura Pearson
Draw
High · A/E 1.06
1120 matched runners
Historical market
19 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.2
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -10
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 3
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 2/4 · G 2/3
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.07 · Finish 0.03
Connections
Steady
Dylan Cunha · Stevie Donohoe
Draw
Low · A/E 0.98
1211 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -4.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 36
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 9/50 · G 0/9
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.49 · Finish -0.07
Connections
Steady
John Oshea · Alexandra Egan(7)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.97
959 matched runners
Historical market
81 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.9
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -14
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/7 · G 0/1
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.36 · Finish -0.29
Connections
Steady
Charlie Pike · Thomas Greatrex
Draw
Low · A/E 0.98
1211 matched runners
Historical market
15 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.4
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 20 · Lingfield (AW)
7:16 Lingfield (AW)
Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap
Forecast reading
Competitive top group
Top-two win-probability separation: 1.36 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history8/8
Usable Official Rating8/8
Informative pace profile8/8
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Competitive top group
1
wrist art
16.7%Win
2
sceptic
15.4%Win
Leader separation1.36pp
Race shape
Leader with room
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureModerate
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioEven
CollapseMedium
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadersansanettiLikely leader
Pace pressureModerateLeader with room
Top threatsansanetti5/8 · Ability, Class, Form, Trip
Best closersansanettiFinishes well
Field abilitysansanettiDominant
Race chaosCompetitive64
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| wrist art | -0.01 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class | -4.9Below field | Declining | Weaker | 2/8 · FairClass, Yard | -0.08Neutral | Hot |
| sceptic | 0.06 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | +5.1Strong | Improving | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Form | -0.16Neutral | Steady |
| sansanetti | 0.44 · #1Likely leader | Lead with pressure | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | +6.1Dominant | Improving | Stronger | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Form, Trip | 0.24Finishes well | Steady |
| monks mead | 0.18 · #2Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -7.9Below field | Stable | Weaker | 1/8 · FairTrip | 0.18Finishes well | Steady |
| equion | 0.06 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 drop 2 | L3 same class | +3.1Strong | Declining | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class | -0.05Neutral | Steady |
| borderline madness | 0.04 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | +4.1Strong | Stable | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class | 0.09Late positive | Steady |
| makes me wonder | -0.21 · #8Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | +2.1Competitive | Declining | Similar | 2/8 · FairAbility, Class | -0.14Neutral | Quiet |
| pure theory | 0.17 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -7.9Below field | Declining | Similar | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.42Weak finisher | Quiet |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Lingfield (AW) 1m2f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 307 races
Going: Standard8 runnersPolytrackStalls: Inside
LowA/E 1.011070 runners
MiddleA/E 1.10835 runners
HighA/E 0.90997 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 8 of 8 experienced runners
Archive coverage
8 of 8 runners
250 earlier WIN races matched
wrist art · pre-off
Steamed 21 · Stable 7 · Drifted 22
50 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
wrist art · in-play support
10%: 25 runs · 50%
25%: 16 runs · 32% · 50%: 8 runs · 16%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| wrist art | 55 | Average 6.4 Last 6 / 8 | 9.81 | Steamed 21 · Stable 7 · Drifted 22 (50 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 25 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 16 runs · 32% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 16% | Established2026-08-03 · Windsor |
| sceptic | 40 | Average 5.8 Last 4 / 6 | 6.40 | Steamed 11 · Stable 5 · Drifted 20 (36 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 21 runs · 58% 25% shorter: 15 runs · 42% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 22% | Established2026-07-18 · Nottingham |
| sansanetti | 13 | Average 4.7 Last 4 / 11 | 9.53 | Steamed 5 · Stable 3 · Drifted 5 (13 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 9 runs · 69% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 54% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 38% | Established2026-07-20 · Windsor |
| monks mead | 45 | Average 4.3 Last 4 / 6 | 7.77 | Steamed 25 · Stable 4 · Drifted 12 (41 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 14 runs · 34% 25% shorter: 8 runs · 20% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 12% | Established2026-08-04 · Lingfield |
| equion | 41 | Average 5.7 Last 8 / 10 | 44.54 | Steamed 17 · Stable 5 · Drifted 16 (38 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 15 runs · 41% 25% shorter: 10 runs · 27% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 16% | Established2026-07-13 · Lingfield |
| borderline madness | 19 | Average 5.3 Last 7 / 13 | 29.06 | Steamed 8 · Stable 4 · Drifted 6 (18 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 7 runs · 41% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 29% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 24% | Established2026-05-15 · Newmarket |
| makes me wonder | 16 | Average 4.9 Last 9 / 9 | 130.00 | Steamed 3 · Stable 2 · Drifted 10 (15 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 40% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 20% | Established2026-07-14 · Wolverhampton |
| pure theory | 21 | Average 5.9 Last 6 / 6 | 104.86 | Steamed 6 · Stable 3 · Drifted 11 (20 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 17 runs · 85% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 55% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 20% | Established2026-07-28 · Yarmouth |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
sansanettiPressure
No reliable signalTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
wrist artscepticmonks meadequionborderline madnesspure theoryClosers
sansanettimonks meadborderline madnessRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Below field
OR edge -4.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -6
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Weak
C 0/3 · D 0/4 · G 0/14
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.01 · Finish -0.08
Connections
Hot
James Owen · Mason Paetel(5)
Draw
Low · A/E 1.01
1070 matched runners
Historical market
55 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.4
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 14
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Weak
C 1/2 · D 0/4 · G 3/16
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.06 · Finish -0.16
Connections
Steady
Ian Williams · Ryan Kavanagh(3)
Draw
High · A/E 0.90
997 matched runners
Historical market
40 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.8
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +6.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 14
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 1/2 · D 4/10 · G 3/4
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.44 · Finish 0.24
Connections
Steady
Stuart Williams · Pat Cosgrave
Draw
High · A/E 0.90
997 matched runners
Historical market
13 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.7
Ability
Below field
OR edge -7.9
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 1/10 · D 1/6 · G 1/15
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.18 · Finish 0.18
Connections
Steady
Mark Usher · Luke Morris
Draw
Low · A/E 1.01
1070 matched runners
Historical market
45 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.3
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -5
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 2 | L3 same class
Conditions
Weak
C 0/1 · D 0/5 · G 1/16
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.06 · Finish -0.05
Connections
Steady
Tony Carroll · Molly Gunn(5)
Draw
Low · A/E 1.01
1070 matched runners
Historical market
41 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.7
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.1
Recent
Stable
Trend -3
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 1/3 · D 0/1 · G 2/7
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.04 · Finish 0.09
Connections
Steady
William Stone · Josephine Gordon
Draw
High · A/E 0.90
997 matched runners
Historical market
19 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.3
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -10
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/1 · G 0/6
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.21 · Finish -0.14
Connections
Quiet
David Simcock · Taryn Langley(5)
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.10
835 matched runners
Historical market
16 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.9
Ability
Below field
OR edge -7.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -28
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Weak
C 0/4 · D 0/11 · G 0/9
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.17 · Finish -0.42
Connections
Quiet
Stephanie Cassidy · Oliver Carmichael(7)
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.10
835 matched runners
Historical market
21 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.9
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 21 · Lingfield (AW)
7:46 Lingfield (AW)
Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Handicap
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 14.06 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history6/6
Usable Official Rating6/6
Informative pace profile6/6
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
fallacious promise
25.8%Win
2
credit forgedd it
11.7%Win
Leader separation14.06pp
Race shape
Narrow pace edge
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureModerate
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Positive
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadershamacidPossible leader
Pace pressureModerateNarrow pace edge
Top threatfallacious promise8/8 · Ability, Class, Shape, Form, Trip, Yard
Best closermbappeFinishes well
Field abilityfallacious promiseStrong
Race chaosCompetitive61
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fallacious promise | -0.23 · #5Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | +5.8Strong | Improving | Similar | 8/8 · MajorAbility, Class, Shape, Form, Trip, Yard | -0.11Neutral | Hot |
| credit forgedd it | 0.10 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -2.2Below field | Improving | Similar | 1/8 · FairForm | -0.26Weak finisher | Steady |
| dark rosa | 0.23 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +1.8Competitive | Declining | Similar | 2/8 · FairAbility, Class | 0.09Late positive | Quiet |
| chapmans peak | -0.15 · #4Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +0.8Competitive | Improving | Similar | 6/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Shape, Form, Trip | -0.16Neutral | Steady |
| mbappe | -0.24 · #6Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -5.2Below field | Declining | Weaker | 3/8 · LiveShape, Trip | 0.17Finishes well | Quiet |
| shamacid | 0.27 · #1Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | -1.2Below field | Declining | Similar | 1/8 · FairClass | -0.39Weak finisher | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Lingfield (AW) 1m1y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 220 races
Going: Standard6 runnersPolytrackStalls: Outside
LowA/E 0.87513 runners
MiddleA/E 1.08366 runners
HighA/E 1.08408 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 6 of 6 experienced runners
Archive coverage
6 of 6 runners
100 earlier WIN races matched
mbappe · pre-off
Steamed 9 · Stable 2 · Drifted 15
26 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
mbappe · in-play support
10%: 9 runs · 35%
25%: 8 runs · 31% · 50%: 5 runs · 19%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fallacious promise | 9 | Average 5.2 Last 1 / 13 | 2.36 | Steamed 3 · Stable 1 · Drifted 5 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 44% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 11% | Established2026-07-08 · Kempton |
| credit forgedd it | 11 | Average 3.8 Last 1 / 7 | 3.31 | Steamed 6 · Stable 1 · Drifted 4 (11 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 36% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 27% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 27% | Established2026-07-30 · Epsom |
| dark rosa | 24 | Average 3.6 Last — | — | Steamed 10 · Stable 3 · Drifted 9 (22 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 11 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 32% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 18% | Established2026-08-03 · Windsor |
| chapmans peak | 10 | Average 5.2 Last 4 / 4 | 9.33 | Steamed 4 · Stable 3 · Drifted 2 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 22% | Established2026-07-23 · Yarmouth |
| mbappe | 31 | Average 4.5 Last 5 / 7 | 9.80 | Steamed 9 · Stable 2 · Drifted 15 (26 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 9 runs · 35% 25% shorter: 8 runs · 31% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 19% | Established2026-07-15 · Bath |
| shamacid | 15 | Average 4.7 Last 11 / 13 | 33.93 | Steamed 7 · Stable 1 · Drifted 7 (15 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 40% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 13% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-07-23 · Southwell |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
shamacidPressure
credit forgedd itdark rosashamacidTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
No reliable signalClosers
dark rosambappeRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.8
Recent
Improving
Trend 31
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 1/3 · D 2/5 · G 1/5
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.23 · Finish -0.11
Connections
Hot
John Butler · Luke Morris
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.08
366 matched runners
Historical market
9 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -2.2
Recent
Improving
Trend 22
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/2 · D 0/1 · G 0/3
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.10 · Finish -0.26
Connections
Steady
Simon Dow · Pat Cosgrave
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.08
366 matched runners
Historical market
11 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.8
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.8
Recent
Declining
Trend -13
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Weak
C 0/3 · D 0/6 · G 1/5
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.23 · Finish 0.09
Connections
Quiet
Georgina Nicholls · Rose Dawes(5)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.87
513 matched runners
Historical market
24 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.6
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.8
Recent
Improving
Trend 16
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/5 · G 0/1
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.15 · Finish -0.16
Connections
Steady
Ed Dunlop · Edward Greatrex
Draw
High · A/E 1.08
408 matched runners
Historical market
10 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -20
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/10 · G 0/3
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.24 · Finish 0.17
Connections
Quiet
Mark Loughnane · Jack Callan
Draw
High · A/E 1.08
408 matched runners
Historical market
31 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -12
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 0/12
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.27 · Finish -0.39
Connections
Steady
S Woods · Mason Paetel(5)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.87
513 matched runners
Historical market
15 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.7
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 22 · Market Rasen
5:30 Market Rasen
Get Best Odds With Oddschecker Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 13.69 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Moderate
59%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history9/10
Usable Official Rating4/10
Informative pace profile7/10
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
park hall
39.5%Win
2
jentobello
25.8%Win
Leader separation13.69pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureModerate
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioEven
CollapseMedium
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderpark hallLikely leader
Pace pressureModerateLeader under pressure
Top threatjentobello3/8 · Ability, Form
Best closerway makerStrong finisher
Field abilityjentobelloDominant
Race chaosNormal44
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| park hall | 0.80 · #1Likely leader | Lead with pressure | L1 same class | L2 same class | —Unrated | Stable | Unknown | 1/8 · FairYard | 0.00Neutral | Hot |
| jentobello | 0.00 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +7.2Dominant | Improving | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| way maker | 0.21 · #3Possible leader | Lead with pressure | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class | -0.8Below field | Stable | Similar | 2/8 · FairClass, Yard | 0.50Strong finisher | Hot |
| centurions sister | -0.14 · #7Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | -7.8Below field | Improving | Weaker | 1/8 · FairForm | -0.29Weak finisher | Steady |
| brosna town | -0.03 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | L3 same class | +1.2Competitive | Improving | Weaker | 2/8 · FairAbility, Form | -0.23Weak finisher | Steady |
| ifyouhaveaplan | -0.20 · #8Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | —Unrated | Stable | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.70Weak finisher | Quiet |
| eagle one | 0.33 · #2Possible leader | Lead with pressure | L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 1 | —Unrated | Declining | Weaker | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.01Neutral | Quiet |
| arcimboldo | -0.28 · #10Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 rise 2 | L2 same class | L3 rise 2 | —Unrated | Declining | Weaker | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.15Neutral | Steady |
| just keeps rolling | 0.00 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Quiet |
| credit union | -0.28 · #9Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | —Unrated | Declining | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.40Weak finisher | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Market Rasen 2m4f139y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Insufficient evidence · 0 races
Going: Good10 runnersTurfStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E —0 runners
MiddleA/E —0 runners
HighA/E —0 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 10 of 10 experienced runners
Archive coverage
10 of 10 runners
111 earlier WIN races matched
eagle one · pre-off
Steamed 13 · Stable 10 · Drifted 14
37 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
eagle one · in-play support
10%: 23 runs · 62%
25%: 12 runs · 32% · 50%: 5 runs · 14%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| park hall | 2 | Average 1.0 Last 1 / 9 | 2.63 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 50% | Limited2026-07-13 · Newton Abbot |
| jentobello | 7 | Average 1.8 Last 2 / 9 | 6.00 | Steamed 5 · Stable 1 · Drifted 0 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 67% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 33% | Established2025-10-21 · Perth |
| way maker | 7 | Average 3.3 Last 1 / 7 | 1.97 | Steamed 2 · Stable 1 · Drifted 4 (7 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 43% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 29% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 14% | Established2026-07-05 · Market Rasen |
| centurions sister | 11 | Average 3.2 Last 3 / 7 | 6.01 | Steamed 2 · Stable 1 · Drifted 7 (10 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 80% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 20% | Established2026-07-12 · Perth |
| brosna town | 19 | Average 6.5 Last 11 / 16 | 110.00 | Steamed 6 · Stable 3 · Drifted 9 (18 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 13 runs · 72% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 61% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 33% | Established2026-08-01 · Galway |
| ifyouhaveaplan | 2 | Average 7.5 Last 8 / 11 | 40.32 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 50% | Limited2026-07-15 · Uttoxeter |
| eagle one | 42 | Average 4.4 Last 7 / 7 | 23.02 | Steamed 13 · Stable 10 · Drifted 14 (37 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 23 runs · 62% 25% shorter: 12 runs · 32% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 14% | Established2026-01-27 · Wolverhampton |
| arcimboldo | 14 | Average 5.6 Last 8 / 9 | 40.00 | Steamed 3 · Stable 1 · Drifted 9 (13 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 31% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 23% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 15% | Established2026-07-31 · Newcastle |
| just keeps rolling | 3 | Average 6.3 Last 7 / 8 | 309.45 | Steamed 1 · Stable 1 · Drifted 1 (3 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 33% | Descriptive2026-05-02 · Hexham |
| credit union | 4 | Average 10.0 Last 10 / 10 | 200.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (3 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 100% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 33% | Descriptive2026-04-11 · Newcastle |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
park hallPressure
way makereagle oneTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
jentobellobrosna townifyouhaveaplanjust keeps rollingClosers
way makerRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 1/1
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.80 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Hot
Dan Skelton · Harry Skelton
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 1.0
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +7.2
Recent
Improving
Trend 6
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 1/1 · D 0/0 · G 2/5
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Iain Jardine · Richie Mclernon
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 1.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.8
Recent
Stable
Trend -2
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/1 · D 0/2 · G 1/4
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.21 · Finish 0.50
Connections
Hot
Mickey Bowen · James Bowen
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.3
Ability
Below field
OR edge -7.8
Recent
Improving
Trend 4
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/0 · G 0/5
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.14 · Finish -0.29
Connections
Steady
Nicky Richards · Danny Mcmenamin
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
11 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.2
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.2
Recent
Improving
Trend 10
Trajectory
Same grade
L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/1 · G 1/10
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.03 · Finish -0.23
Connections
Steady
Jessica Bedi · Conor Rabbitt(3)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
19 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.5
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/0 · G 0/2
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.20 · Finish -0.70
Connections
Quiet
Louise Allan · Jack Quinlan
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.5
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Declining
Trend -12
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/3
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.33 · Finish -0.01
Connections
Quiet
Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies · Jamie Brace(5)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
42 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.4
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Declining
Trend -10
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2 | L2 same class | L3 rise 2
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/1 · G 0/3
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.28 · Finish -0.15
Connections
Steady
Mike Sowersby · Charlie Maggs(3)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
14 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.6
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/1 · G 0/2
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Quiet
Philip Kirby · Jack Hogan
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.3
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Declining
Trend -31
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.28 · Finish -0.40
Connections
Steady
Jessica Bedi · Conor Ofarrell
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
4 runs
Avg BSP rank 10.0
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 23 · Market Rasen
6:04 Market Rasen
Bet Smarter With Oddschecker+ Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 29.68 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
79%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history4/4
Usable Official Rating3/4
Informative pace profile4/4
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
loriko
54.5%Win
2
eternal angel
24.9%Win
Leader separation29.68pp
Race shape
Narrow pace edge
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureModerate
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Negative
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadereternal angelPossible leader
Pace pressureModerateNarrow pace edge
Top threatloriko4/8 · Ability, Form, Yard
Best closermayoStrong finisher
Field abilitylorikoDominant
Race chaosNormal52
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| loriko | 0.20 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +24.0Dominant | Improving | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Yard | 0.10Late positive | Hot |
| eternal angel | 0.21 · #1Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | +19.0Dominant | Improving | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Form | -0.17Neutral | Steady |
| mayo | -0.23 · #4Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | —Unrated | Declining | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveShape, Yard | 0.40Strong finisher | Hot |
| destination unkown | 0.18 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 2 | -43.0Below field | Declining | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.46Weak finisher | Quiet |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Market Rasen 2m125y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Insufficient evidence · 0 races
Going: Good4 runnersTurfStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E —0 runners
MiddleA/E —0 runners
HighA/E —0 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 4 of 4 experienced runners
Archive coverage
4 of 4 runners
36 earlier WIN races matched
eternal angel · pre-off
Steamed 7 · Stable 2 · Drifted 2
11 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
eternal angel · in-play support
10%: 7 runs · 64%
25%: 4 runs · 36% · 50%: 0 runs · 0%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| loriko | 10 | Average 2.6 Last — | — | Steamed 1 · Stable 2 · Drifted 5 (8 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 7 runs · 88% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 12% | Established2026-07-19 · Stratford |
| eternal angel | 11 | Average 2.2 Last 1 / 11 | 5.68 | Steamed 7 · Stable 2 · Drifted 2 (11 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 7 runs · 64% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 36% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-07-18 · Cartmel |
| mayo | 5 | Average 4.8 Last 6 / 8 | 60.00 | Steamed 2 · Stable 1 · Drifted 2 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 60% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 60% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-06-06 · Worcester |
| destination unkown | 10 | Average 7.7 Last 7 / 8 | 1000.00 | Steamed 4 · Stable 1 · Drifted 4 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 62% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 62% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 38% | Established2026-07-20 · Cartmel |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
eternal angelPressure
lorikoeternal angelTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
destination unkownClosers
lorikomayoRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +24.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 10
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/1 · G 2/7
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.20 · Finish 0.10
Connections
Hot
Dan Skelton · Harry Skelton
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
10 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.6
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +19.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 15
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 1/7
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.21 · Finish -0.17
Connections
Steady
Tom Lacey · Jonathan Burke
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
11 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.2
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Declining
Trend -8
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/2
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.23 · Finish 0.40
Connections
Hot
Mickey Bowen · James Bowen
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
5 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -43.0
Recent
Declining
Trend -22
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 2
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/2 · D 0/1 · G 0/4
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.18 · Finish -0.46
Connections
Quiet
Michael Chapman · James Best
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
10 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.7
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 24 · Market Rasen
6:34 Market Rasen
Download The Oddschecker App Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
Forecast reading
Near dead heat at the top
Top-two win-probability separation: 0.00 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history8/8
Usable Official Rating8/8
Informative pace profile8/8
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Near dead heat at the top
1
gower prince
21.0%Win
2
ghasham
21.0%Win
Leader separation0.00pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Negative
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadergower princeLikely leader
Pace pressureStrongLeader under pressure
Top threatghasham5/8 · Ability, Shape, Yard
Best closerbelle le grandNeutral
Field abilitymy friend seanDominant
Race chaosCompetitive70
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gower prince | 0.46 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | +3.1Strong | Declining | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility | -0.38Weak finisher | Steady |
| ghasham | -0.01 · #7Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | +3.1Strong | Stable | Similar | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Shape, Yard | -0.25Weak finisher | Hot |
| belle le grand | 0.17 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | +6.1Dominant | Stable | Stronger | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Trip, Yard | 0.02Neutral | Hot |
| miss denver | 0.11 · #5Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -11.9Below field | Stable | Similar | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.35Weak finisher | Quiet |
| my friend sean | 0.02 · #6Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +10.1Dominant | Improving | Stronger | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Shape, Form | -0.10Neutral | Steady |
| dog fox | -0.07 · #8Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +4.1Strong | Declining | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Shape | -0.22Weak finisher | Steady |
| genbu | 0.14 · #4Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | -4.9Below field | Stable | Weaker | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.32Weak finisher | Quiet |
| clean getaway | 0.20 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | -9.9Below field | Improving | Weaker | 2/8 · FairForm, Trip | -0.19Weak finisher | Quiet |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Market Rasen 2m1f43y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Insufficient evidence · 0 races
Going: Good8 runnersTurfStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E —0 runners
MiddleA/E —0 runners
HighA/E —0 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 8 of 8 experienced runners
Archive coverage
8 of 8 runners
219 earlier WIN races matched
clean getaway · pre-off
Steamed 12 · Stable 4 · Drifted 30
46 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
clean getaway · in-play support
10%: 39 runs · 85%
25%: 34 runs · 74% · 50%: 21 runs · 46%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gower prince | 21 | Average 5.6 Last 2 / 3 | 3.19 | Steamed 8 · Stable 1 · Drifted 10 (19 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 14 runs · 74% 25% shorter: 12 runs · 63% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 32% | Established2026-05-06 · Newton Abbot |
| ghasham | 36 | Average 5.0 Last 5 / 9 | 12.45 | Steamed 19 · Stable 3 · Drifted 12 (34 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 24 runs · 71% 25% shorter: 22 runs · 65% 50% shorter: 11 runs · 32% | Established2026-07-24 · Uttoxeter |
| belle le grand | 18 | Average 4.4 Last 6 / 10 | 20.00 | Steamed 9 · Stable 1 · Drifted 6 (16 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 11 runs · 69% 25% shorter: 8 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 25% | Established2026-07-26 · Uttoxeter |
| miss denver | 10 | Average 6.0 Last 3 / 3 | 6.80 | Steamed 0 · Stable 1 · Drifted 8 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 7 runs · 78% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 67% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 33% | Established2026-07-13 · Newton Abbot |
| my friend sean | 28 | Average 4.0 Last 5 / 5 | 8.52 | Steamed 8 · Stable 6 · Drifted 8 (22 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 12 runs · 55% 25% shorter: 10 runs · 45% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 14% | Established2026-07-15 · Uttoxeter |
| dog fox | 31 | Average 3.2 Last 3 / 9 | 8.20 | Steamed 16 · Stable 1 · Drifted 7 (24 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 16 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 12 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 25% | Established2026-07-24 · Uttoxeter |
| genbu | 26 | Average 5.6 Last 4 / 8 | 10.00 | Steamed 16 · Stable 1 · Drifted 9 (26 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 17 runs · 65% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 42% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 31% | Established2026-07-24 · Uttoxeter |
| clean getaway | 49 | Average 4.8 Last 4 / 8 | 9.98 | Steamed 12 · Stable 4 · Drifted 30 (46 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 39 runs · 85% 25% shorter: 34 runs · 74% 50% shorter: 21 runs · 46% | Established2026-07-18 · Cartmel |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
gower princePressure
belle le grandmiss denvergenbuclean getawayTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
No reliable signalClosers
No reliable signalRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -12
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Weak
C 0/3 · D 0/5 · G 1/15
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.46 · Finish -0.38
Connections
Steady
Jonjo & A J Oneill · Richie Mclernon
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
21 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.6
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.1
Recent
Stable
Trend 4
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 1/3 · D 0/0 · G 1/13
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.01 · Finish -0.25
Connections
Hot
Sam England · Jonathan England
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
36 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +6.1
Recent
Stable
Trend -4
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/2 · D 2/4 · G 4/9
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.17 · Finish 0.02
Connections
Hot
Dan Skelton · Harry Skelton
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
18 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.4
Ability
Below field
OR edge -11.9
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 0/4
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.11 · Finish -0.35
Connections
Quiet
Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies · Sam Twiston-Davies
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
10 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.0
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +10.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 20
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 3/12
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.02 · Finish -0.10
Connections
Steady
Tom Lacey · Jonathan Burke
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
28 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.0
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -5
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/1 · D 0/2 · G 2/15
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.07 · Finish -0.22
Connections
Steady
Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero · Jack Tudor
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
31 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -4.9
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/3 · G 2/13
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.14 · Finish -0.32
Connections
Quiet
Sarah-Jayne Davies · Charlie Price
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
26 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -9.9
Recent
Improving
Trend 6
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 2/8 · D 3/14 · G 6/33
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.20 · Finish -0.19
Connections
Quiet
Philip Kirby · Joe Williamson
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
49 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.8
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 25 · Market Rasen
7:04 Market Rasen
Oddschecker Free Bets Handicap Hurdle
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 19.98 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history6/6
Usable Official Rating6/6
Informative pace profile6/6
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
kiwi de cotte
39.5%Win
2
parikarma
19.5%Win
Leader separation19.98pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Negative
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderballintubber boyLikely leader
Pace pressureStrongLeader under pressure
Top threatballintubber boy5/8 · Ability, Class, Form, Trip
Best closerparikarmaFinishes well
Field abilityernest grayDominant
Race chaosNormal55
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kiwi de cotte | 0.05 · #4Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | 0.0Competitive | Stable | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip, Yard | 0.00Neutral | Hot |
| parikarma | -0.14 · #6Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | -14.0Below field | Declining | Similar | 2/8 · FairShape | 0.16Finishes well | Quiet |
| lowlands | 0.36 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -3.0Below field | Stable | Similar | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.29Weak finisher | Steady |
| belvedere blast | -0.12 · #5Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -2.0Below field | Declining | Weaker | 4/8 · LiveShape, Trip, Yard | 0.07Late positive | Hot |
| ballintubber boy | 0.52 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +9.0Dominant | Improving | Similar | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Form, Trip | -0.06Neutral | Quiet |
| ernest gray | 0.33 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 2 | L3 drop 1 | +10.0Dominant | Stable | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Trip | 0.04Late positive | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Market Rasen 2m7f16y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Insufficient evidence · 0 races
Going: Good6 runnersTurfStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E —0 runners
MiddleA/E —0 runners
HighA/E —0 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 6 of 6 experienced runners
Archive coverage
6 of 6 runners
210 earlier WIN races matched
parikarma · pre-off
Steamed 28 · Stable 8 · Drifted 31
67 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
parikarma · in-play support
10%: 31 runs · 46%
25%: 20 runs · 30% · 50%: 13 runs · 19%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kiwi de cotte | 3 | Average 2.3 Last 1 / 8 | 3.27 | Steamed 1 · Stable 1 · Drifted 1 (3 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 100% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 33% | Descriptive2026-07-10 · Worcester |
| parikarma | 72 | Average 5.7 Last 4 / 5 | 10.80 | Steamed 28 · Stable 8 · Drifted 31 (67 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 31 runs · 46% 25% shorter: 20 runs · 30% 50% shorter: 13 runs · 19% | Established2026-07-19 · Stratford |
| lowlands | 10 | Average 3.3 Last 1 / 7 | 4.00 | Steamed 2 · Stable 2 · Drifted 6 (10 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 80% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 60% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 50% | Established2026-07-12 · Perth |
| belvedere blast | 71 | Average 6.5 Last 6 / 12 | 15.50 | Steamed 20 · Stable 13 · Drifted 30 (63 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 33 runs · 53% 25% shorter: 21 runs · 34% 50% shorter: 10 runs · 16% | Established2026-07-18 · Market Rasen |
| ballintubber boy | 26 | Average 4.0 Last 5 / 7 | 11.18 | Steamed 11 · Stable 6 · Drifted 9 (26 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 18 runs · 69% 25% shorter: 15 runs · 58% 50% shorter: 10 runs · 38% | Established2026-07-12 · Perth |
| ernest gray | 28 | Average 4.0 Last 6 / 11 | 19.00 | Steamed 6 · Stable 4 · Drifted 14 (24 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 15 runs · 62% 25% shorter: 12 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 33% | Established2026-07-07 · Uttoxeter |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
ballintubber boyPressure
kiwi de cottelowlandsernest grayTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
No reliable signalClosers
parikarmabelvedere blastRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.0
Recent
Stable
Trend -2
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 1/1 · D 1/2 · G 1/2
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.05 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Hot
Dan Skelton · Harry Skelton
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.3
Ability
Below field
OR edge -14.0
Recent
Declining
Trend -36
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/0 · G 2/11
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.14 · Finish 0.16
Connections
Quiet
Samuel Drinkwater · Miss Imogen Mathias(7)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
72 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.7
Ability
Below field
OR edge -3.0
Recent
Stable
Trend 3
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 1/8
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.36 · Finish -0.29
Connections
Steady
Nicky Richards · Danny Mcmenamin
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
10 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.3
Ability
Below field
OR edge -2.0
Recent
Declining
Trend -6
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 4/15 · D 2/6 · G 6/34
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.12 · Finish 0.07
Connections
Hot
Adrian Paul Keatley · Oakley Brown(5)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
71 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.5
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +9.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 7
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 1/2 · D 1/6 · G 6/16
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.52 · Finish -0.06
Connections
Quiet
Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies · Sam Twiston-Davies
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
26 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.0
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +10.0
Recent
Stable
Trend 1
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 2 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/1 · D 1/4 · G 3/8
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.33 · Finish 0.04
Connections
Steady
Alan King · Jonathan Burke
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
28 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.0
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 26 · Market Rasen
7:34 Market Rasen
Oddschecker+ Subscription Service Handicap Chase
Forecast reading
Competitive top group
Top-two win-probability separation: 2.67 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
82%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history8/8
Usable Official Rating8/8
Informative pace profile7/8
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Competitive top group
1
la quarite
24.9%Win
2
huckleberry sting
22.2%Win
Leader separation2.67pp
Race shape
Front end contested
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Negative
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderthe clonmel kidPossible leader
Pace pressureStrongFront end contested
Top threatribeye5/8 · Ability, Class, Shape
Best closeruncle alNeutral
Field abilitythe clonmel kidDominant
Race chaosCompetitive72
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| la quarite | 0.00 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +1.1Competitive | Improving | Weaker | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Yard | 0.00Neutral | Hot |
| huckleberry sting | -0.04 · #6Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +2.1Competitive | Improving | Weaker | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Yard | -0.22Weak finisher | Hot |
| the clonmel kid | 0.37 · #1Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | +10.1Dominant | Improving | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Form | -0.18Neutral | Quiet |
| huit reflets | 0.01 · #4Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -3.9Below field | Declining | Similar | 2/8 · FairShape | -0.28Weak finisher | Steady |
| uncle al | -0.11 · #7Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -6.9Below field | Declining | Similar | 2/8 · FairShape | -0.09Neutral | Steady |
| a dublin job | 0.32 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +7.1Dominant | Declining | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class | -0.42Weak finisher | Quiet |
| ribeye | -0.15 · #8Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | +6.1Dominant | Declining | Similar | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Shape | -0.16Neutral | Quiet |
| fast deal | 0.17 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -15.9Below field | Stable | Weaker | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.40Weak finisher | Quiet |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Market Rasen 2m5f89y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Insufficient evidence · 0 races
Going: Good8 runnersTurfStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E —0 runners
MiddleA/E —0 runners
HighA/E —0 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 8 of 8 experienced runners
Archive coverage
8 of 8 runners
269 earlier WIN races matched
fast deal · pre-off
Steamed 23 · Stable 11 · Drifted 34
68 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
fast deal · in-play support
10%: 40 runs · 59%
25%: 32 runs · 47% · 50%: 23 runs · 34%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| la quarite | 22 | Average 3.5 Last — | — | Steamed 9 · Stable 4 · Drifted 7 (20 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 15 runs · 75% 25% shorter: 9 runs · 45% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 15% | Established2026-06-06 · Worcester |
| huckleberry sting | 11 | Average 5.5 Last 2 / 8 | 5.10 | Steamed 3 · Stable 2 · Drifted 6 (11 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 11 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 9 runs · 82% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 45% | Established2026-07-16 · Worcester |
| the clonmel kid | 16 | Average 4.5 Last 7 / 8 | 36.72 | Steamed 9 · Stable 1 · Drifted 4 (14 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 57% 25% shorter: 8 runs · 57% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 36% | Established2026-07-07 · Uttoxeter |
| huit reflets | 46 | Average 4.5 Last 3 / 8 | 9.72 | Steamed 21 · Stable 2 · Drifted 18 (41 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 27 runs · 68% 25% shorter: 15 runs · 38% 50% shorter: 9 runs · 22% | Established2026-07-18 · Market Rasen |
| uncle al | 17 | Average 7.7 Last 10 / 14 | 26.00 | Steamed 6 · Stable 3 · Drifted 6 (15 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 12 runs · 80% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 47% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 33% | Established2026-07-24 · Uttoxeter |
| a dublin job | 30 | Average 6.0 Last 10 / 10 | 158.92 | Steamed 8 · Stable 8 · Drifted 8 (24 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 14 runs · 64% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 27% | Established2026-07-26 · Uttoxeter |
| ribeye | 55 | Average 5.5 Last 9 / 9 | 29.73 | Steamed 19 · Stable 6 · Drifted 23 (48 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 39 runs · 83% 25% shorter: 31 runs · 66% 50% shorter: 21 runs · 45% | Established2026-07-05 · Market Rasen |
| fast deal | 72 | Average 8.4 Last 9 / 9 | 360.00 | Steamed 23 · Stable 11 · Drifted 34 (68 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 40 runs · 59% 25% shorter: 32 runs · 47% 50% shorter: 23 runs · 34% | Established2026-07-20 · Cartmel |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
the clonmel kidPressure
huckleberry stingthe clonmel kida dublin jobTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
la quaritefast dealClosers
No reliable signalRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 8
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/0 · G 1/9
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Hot
Mickey Bowen · James Bowen
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
22 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.5
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 20
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 1/1 · D 0/0 · G 2/8
Pace
Possible leader
Front -0.04 · Finish -0.22
Connections
Hot
T Ellis · Jack Andrews
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
11 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.5
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +10.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 11
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 1/8
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.37 · Finish -0.18
Connections
Quiet
Philip Kirby · Joe Williamson
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
16 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -3.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -12
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/0 · G 2/14
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.01 · Finish -0.28
Connections
Steady
Mark Walford · Jamie Hamilton
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
46 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -6.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -14
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/3 · D 0/1 · G 0/7
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.11 · Finish -0.09
Connections
Steady
Jessica Bedi · Conor Ofarrell
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
17 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.7
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +7.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -23
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 1/4 · D 0/3 · G 3/11
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.32 · Finish -0.42
Connections
Quiet
Sarah-Jayne Davies · Cameron Johnstone-Baker(7)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
30 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.0
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +6.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -4
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 2/7 · D 0/1 · G 2/21
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.15 · Finish -0.16
Connections
Quiet
Peter Atkinson · Danny Mcmenamin
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
55 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -15.9
Recent
Stable
Trend -4
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/19 · D 0/3 · G 0/31
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.17 · Finish -0.40
Connections
Quiet
Michael Chapman · James Best
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
72 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.4
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 27 · Market Rasen
8:04 Market Rasen
oddschecker.com Handicap Hurdle
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 3.07 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history10/10
Usable Official Rating10/10
Informative pace profile10/10
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
no more bolero
22.6%Win
2
fine point
19.5%Win
Leader separation3.07pp
Race shape
Narrow pace edge
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureModerate
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioEven
CollapseMedium
Read: Positive
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderfine pointPossible leader
Pace pressureModerateNarrow pace edge
Top threatno more bolero6/8 · Ability, Class, Shape, Yard
Best closerquick of the nightFinishes well
Field abilityno more boleroDominant
Race chaosNormal54
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no more bolero | 0.10 · #3Prominent | Good stalking run | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | +12.5Dominant | Declining | Stronger | 6/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Shape, Yard | -0.13Neutral | Hot |
| fine point | 0.43 · #1Possible leader | Lead with pressure | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +5.5Strong | Improving | Weaker | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Yard | -0.47Weak finisher | Hot |
| ashdown forest | -0.02 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +4.5Strong | Improving | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Yard | -0.33Weak finisher | Hot |
| god of fire | 0.39 · #2Possible leader | Lead with pressure | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +8.5Dominant | Improving | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Form | -0.16Neutral | Steady |
| four decades | -0.22 · #9Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | +5.5Strong | Declining | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Yard | -0.78Weak finisher | Hot |
| ballynoe boy | -0.23 · #10Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -2.5Below field | Stable | Weaker | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.36Weak finisher | Steady |
| quick of the night | -0.22 · #8Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -9.5Below field | Declining | Similar | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.12Finishes well | Quiet |
| lone star | 0.04 · #4Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +2.5Competitive | Declining | Similar | 1/8 · FairAbility | -0.27Weak finisher | Quiet |
| red trail | 0.01 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -13.5Below field | Improving | Similar | 1/8 · FairForm | -0.12Neutral | Steady |
| papillondelumiere | -0.07 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | -13.5Below field | Stable | Stronger | 1/8 · FairClass | -0.53Weak finisher | Quiet |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Market Rasen 2m2f140y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Insufficient evidence · 0 races
Going: Good10 runnersTurfStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E —0 runners
MiddleA/E —0 runners
HighA/E —0 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 10 of 10 experienced runners
Archive coverage
10 of 10 runners
219 earlier WIN races matched
lone star · pre-off
Steamed 10 · Stable 10 · Drifted 27
47 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
lone star · in-play support
10%: 39 runs · 83%
25%: 31 runs · 66% · 50%: 20 runs · 43%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no more bolero | 26 | Average 4.6 Last 2 / 4 | 2.66 | Steamed 8 · Stable 5 · Drifted 10 (23 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 14 runs · 61% 25% shorter: 10 runs · 43% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 30% | Established2026-07-18 · Market Rasen |
| fine point | 18 | Average 4.5 Last 1 / 10 | 2.97 | Steamed 11 · Stable 2 · Drifted 5 (18 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 12 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 61% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 28% | Established2026-06-06 · Hexham |
| ashdown forest | 14 | Average 3.3 Last — | — | Steamed 5 · Stable 1 · Drifted 7 (13 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 62% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 38% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 23% | Established2026-07-26 · Uttoxeter |
| god of fire | 25 | Average 5.0 Last 2 / 4 | 3.25 | Steamed 7 · Stable 4 · Drifted 9 (20 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 12 runs · 60% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 35% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 30% | Established2026-07-13 · Newton Abbot |
| four decades | 8 | Average 8.1 Last 8 / 8 | 55.00 | Steamed 2 · Stable 1 · Drifted 4 (7 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 71% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 43% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 43% | Established2026-07-24 · Uttoxeter |
| ballynoe boy | 9 | Average 4.8 Last 7 / 10 | 14.73 | Steamed 1 · Stable 1 · Drifted 7 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 56% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 44% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-06-28 · Cartmel |
| quick of the night | 21 | Average 6.0 Last 4 / 13 | 11.93 | Steamed 8 · Stable 3 · Drifted 9 (20 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 32% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 21% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 16% | Established2026-07-22 · Worcester |
| lone star | 51 | Average 5.2 Last 8 / 10 | 38.00 | Steamed 10 · Stable 10 · Drifted 27 (47 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 39 runs · 83% 25% shorter: 31 runs · 66% 50% shorter: 20 runs · 43% | Established2026-06-19 · Market Rasen |
| red trail | 43 | Average 7.6 Last 10 / 10 | 210.00 | Steamed 13 · Stable 8 · Drifted 18 (39 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 24 runs · 62% 25% shorter: 22 runs · 56% 50% shorter: 13 runs · 33% | Established2026-06-19 · Market Rasen |
| papillondelumiere | 4 | Average 7.0 Last 8 / 8 | 48.51 | Steamed 2 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (4 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 75% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 75% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 25% | Descriptive2026-07-26 · Uttoxeter |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
fine pointPressure
fine pointgod of fireTracking
no more boleroMidfield
ashdown forestred trailpapillondelumiereClosers
quick of the nightRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +12.5
Recent
Declining
Trend -8
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 1/1 · D 0/1 · G 3/12
Pace
Prominent
Front 0.10 · Finish -0.13
Connections
Hot
James Owen · Harry Cobden
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
26 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.6
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.5
Recent
Improving
Trend 10
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 2/11
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.43 · Finish -0.47
Connections
Hot
Adam Nicol · Joshua Thompson(5)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
18 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.5
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.5
Recent
Improving
Trend 6
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 1/2
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.02 · Finish -0.33
Connections
Hot
Dan Skelton · Harry Skelton
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
14 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.3
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +8.5
Recent
Improving
Trend 8
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 1/1 · G 1/4
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.39 · Finish -0.16
Connections
Steady
Jonjo & A J Oneill · Richie Mclernon
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
25 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.5
Recent
Declining
Trend -28
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/3
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.22 · Finish -0.78
Connections
Hot
T Ellis · Jack Andrews
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
8 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.1
Ability
Below field
OR edge -2.5
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/0 · G 0/5
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.23 · Finish -0.36
Connections
Steady
Nicky Richards · Danny Mcmenamin
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
9 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -9.5
Recent
Declining
Trend -8
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 2/18
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.22 · Finish 0.12
Connections
Quiet
Dave Roberts · Lee Edwards
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
21 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.0
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.5
Recent
Declining
Trend -10
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 1/8 · D 0/2 · G 2/27
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.04 · Finish -0.27
Connections
Quiet
Philip Kirby · Joe Williamson
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
51 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -13.5
Recent
Improving
Trend 14
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/7 · D 0/2 · G 0/13
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.01 · Finish -0.12
Connections
Steady
Mike Sowersby · Charlie Maggs(3)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
43 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -13.5
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/3
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.07 · Finish -0.53
Connections
Quiet
Jonathan Barlow · David Noonan
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
4 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.0
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 28 · Newbury
1:25 Newbury
Highclere Thoroughbred Racing Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3)
Forecast reading
Competitive top group
Top-two win-probability separation: 2.07 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
81%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history6/6
Usable Official Rating6/6
Informative pace profile5/6
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Competitive top group
1
dubai honour
34.0%Win
2
tabletalk
31.9%Win
Leader separation2.07pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadergamraiLikely leader
Pace pressureStrongLeader under pressure
Top threatdubai honour4/8 · Ability, Form, Yard
Best closerrebel rockerStrong finisher
Field abilitydubai honourDominant
Race chaosCompetitive66
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dubai honour | 0.00 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +10.0Dominant | Improving | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Yard | 0.00Neutral | Hot |
| tabletalk | 0.06 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +4.0Strong | Declining | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Yard | 0.12Finishes well | Hot |
| wine dark sea | 0.32 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 3 | L3 rise 2 | -8.0Below field | Improving | Weaker | 2/8 · FairForm, Yard | 0.21Finishes well | Hot |
| gamrai | 0.73 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | -5.0Below field | Improving | Weaker | 2/8 · FairForm, Yard | -0.15Neutral | Hot |
| mount atlas | 0.22 · #4Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +4.0Strong | Improving | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form | 0.19Finishes well | Steady |
| rebel rocker | 0.23 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | -5.0Below field | Declining | Weaker | 1/8 · FairYard | 1.00Strong finisher | Hot |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Newbury 1m5f61y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Course/distance baseline · 48 races
Going: Good To Firm6 runnersTurfStalls: Inside
LowA/E 1.04145 runners
MiddleA/E 1.02111 runners
HighA/E 0.95130 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 6 of 6 experienced runners
Archive coverage
6 of 6 runners
70 earlier WIN races matched
dubai honour · pre-off
Steamed 11 · Stable 1 · Drifted 6
18 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
dubai honour · in-play support
10%: 5 runs · 28%
25%: 4 runs · 22% · 50%: 3 runs · 17%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dubai honour | 18 | Average 3.8 Last 3 / 5 | 4.03 | Steamed 11 · Stable 1 · Drifted 6 (18 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 28% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 22% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 17% | Established2025-12-17 · Kempton |
| tabletalk | 15 | Average 5.0 Last 1 / 6 | 3.25 | Steamed 3 · Stable 5 · Drifted 6 (14 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 10 runs · 71% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 29% | Established2026-07-11 · York |
| wine dark sea | 9 | Average 4.6 Last 1 / 10 | 1.88 | Steamed 3 · Stable 1 · Drifted 5 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 7 runs · 78% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 56% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 56% | Established2026-07-10 · Newmarket |
| gamrai | 8 | Average 1.7 Last 2 / 16 | 6.89 | Steamed 5 · Stable 1 · Drifted 1 (7 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 86% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 43% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 29% | Established2026-06-16 · Royal Ascot |
| mount atlas | 17 | Average 3.8 Last 2 / 6 | 3.40 | Steamed 8 · Stable 3 · Drifted 5 (16 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 44% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 25% | Established2026-07-11 · York |
| rebel rocker | 3 | Average 8.3 Last 11 / 14 | 72.60 | Steamed 2 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (3 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 33% | Descriptive2026-06-06 · Epsom |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
gamraiPressure
wine dark seamount atlasrebel rockerTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
dubai honourtabletalkClosers
tabletalkwine dark seamount atlasrebel rockerRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +10.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 12
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 1/4
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Hot
William Haggas · Tom Marquand
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.02
111 matched runners
Historical market
18 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.8
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.0
Recent
Declining
Trend -5
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/2 · D 0/0 · G 1/6
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.06 · Finish 0.12
Connections
Hot
Tom Clover · Saffie Osborne
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.02
111 matched runners
Historical market
15 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
Ability
Below field
OR edge -8.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 12
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 3 | L3 rise 2
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 2/4
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.32 · Finish 0.21
Connections
Hot
Harry Charlton · Hector Crouch
Draw
Low · A/E 1.04
145 matched runners
Historical market
9 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 10
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 1/3
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.73 · Finish -0.15
Connections
Hot
George Scott · William Buick
Draw
Low · A/E 1.04
145 matched runners
Historical market
8 runs
Avg BSP rank 1.7
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 8
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/2 · G 2/4
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.22 · Finish 0.19
Connections
Steady
Andrew Balding · P J Mcdonald
Draw
High · A/E 0.95
130 matched runners
Historical market
17 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.0
Recent
Declining
Trend -4
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.23 · Finish 1.00
Connections
Hot
Faye Bramley · Rob Hornby
Draw
High · A/E 0.95
130 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.3
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 29 · Newbury
1:55 Newbury
D&H, Excellence In Nutrition Handicap
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 3.63 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history12/12
Usable Official Rating12/12
Informative pace profile12/12
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
kinswoman
15.4%Win
2
hypnotised
11.7%Win
Leader separation3.63pp
Race shape
Front end contested
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Negative
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderhucklesbrookPossible leader
Pace pressureStrongFront end contested
Top threatkinswoman6/8 · Ability, Class, Form, Trip, Yard
Best closermajor neigh sayerStrong finisher
Field abilityregal envoyDominant
Race chaosChaotic80
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kinswoman | 0.53 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 2 | L2 drop 2 | L3 drop 1 | +4.0Strong | Improving | Stronger | 6/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Form, Trip, Yard | 0.19Finishes well | Hot |
| hypnotised | -0.06 · #12Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 rise 2 | -4.0Below field | Improving | Similar | 4/8 · LiveClass, Form, Trip, Yard | -0.12Neutral | Hot |
| major neigh sayer | 0.05 · #9Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | +2.0Competitive | Improving | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Yard | 0.50Strong finisher | Hot |
| glamorous breeze | 0.26 · #6Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class | +6.0Dominant | Stable | Stronger | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Trip, Yard | -0.03Neutral | Hot |
| regal envoy | 0.49 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +7.0Dominant | Declining | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Trip | 0.01Neutral | Steady |
| wheels of fire | 0.11 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | +5.0Strong | Stable | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip | 0.03Neutral | Steady |
| ziggys triton | 0.26 · #5Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class | +4.0Strong | Stable | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Trip | 0.02Neutral | Steady |
| river spey | -0.02 · #11Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class | +1.0Competitive | Stable | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Yard | 0.31Strong finisher | Hot |
| hucklesbrook | 0.56 · #1Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +1.0Competitive | Declining | Similar | 1/8 · FairAbility | -0.13Neutral | Steady |
| kanishka | 0.08 · #8Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | -10.0Below field | Declining | Weaker | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.06Neutral | Steady |
| rhythm n hooves | 0.30 · #4Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | -6.0Below field | Declining | Stronger | 2/8 · FairClass, Trip | 0.09Late positive | Steady |
| the thames boatman | 0.02 · #10Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | -10.0Below field | Improving | Weaker | 4/8 · LiveShape, Form, Trip | 0.22Finishes well | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Newbury 5f34y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Course/distance baseline · 68 races
Going: Good To Firm12 runnersTurfStalls: Centre
LowA/E 0.90268 runners
MiddleA/E 1.11221 runners
HighA/E 1.03250 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 12 of 12 experienced runners
Archive coverage
12 of 12 runners
354 earlier WIN races matched
glamorous breeze · pre-off
Steamed 26 · Stable 10 · Drifted 18
54 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
glamorous breeze · in-play support
10%: 20 runs · 38%
25%: 15 runs · 28% · 50%: 13 runs · 25%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kinswoman | 14 | Average 2.2 Last 10 / 13 | 63.19 | Steamed 7 · Stable 2 · Drifted 4 (13 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 46% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 31% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 15% | Established2026-07-10 · York |
| hypnotised | 6 | Average 3.2 Last 5 / 6 | 8.00 | Steamed 2 · Stable 0 · Drifted 3 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 40% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 20% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-07-29 · Sandown |
| major neigh sayer | 7 | Average 2.8 Last 1 / 8 | 3.79 | Steamed 3 · Stable 1 · Drifted 2 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 17% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 17% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 17% | Established2026-06-06 · Musselburgh |
| glamorous breeze | 62 | Average 4.4 Last 6 / 23 | 14.39 | Steamed 26 · Stable 10 · Drifted 18 (54 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 20 runs · 38% 25% shorter: 15 runs · 28% 50% shorter: 13 runs · 25% | Established2026-07-28 · Goodwood |
| regal envoy | 53 | Average 6.0 Last 23 / 23 | 141.16 | Steamed 12 · Stable 9 · Drifted 29 (50 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 31 runs · 62% 25% shorter: 22 runs · 44% 50% shorter: 18 runs · 36% | Established2026-07-28 · Goodwood |
| wheels of fire | 26 | Average 3.2 Last 4 / 6 | 7.40 | Steamed 14 · Stable 3 · Drifted 6 (23 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 12 runs · 52% 25% shorter: 10 runs · 43% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 13% | Established2026-07-29 · Sandown |
| ziggys triton | 30 | Average 5.0 Last 17 / 23 | 95.00 | Steamed 10 · Stable 9 · Drifted 9 (28 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 10 runs · 36% 25% shorter: 10 runs · 36% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 29% | Established2026-07-28 · Goodwood |
| river spey | 13 | Average 6.3 Last 13 / 18 | 38.92 | Steamed 4 · Stable 2 · Drifted 4 (10 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 30% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 20% | Established2026-07-30 · Goodwood |
| hucklesbrook | 16 | Average 5.6 Last 5 / 13 | 10.50 | Steamed 4 · Stable 6 · Drifted 6 (16 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 38% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 31% | Established2026-07-27 · Windsor |
| kanishka | 15 | Average 6.3 Last 18 / 26 | 56.40 | Steamed 4 · Stable 3 · Drifted 6 (13 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 15% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 15% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 15% | Established2026-07-29 · Goodwood |
| rhythm n hooves | 53 | Average 5.6 Last 6 / 13 | 11.50 | Steamed 22 · Stable 5 · Drifted 24 (51 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 19 runs · 37% 25% shorter: 16 runs · 31% 50% shorter: 11 runs · 22% | Established2026-07-25 · Ascot |
| the thames boatman | 59 | Average 3.6 Last 3 / 7 | 7.59 | Steamed 16 · Stable 9 · Drifted 27 (52 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 17 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 14 runs · 27% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 15% | Established2026-07-25 · Lingfield |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
hucklesbrookPressure
kinswomanglamorous breezeregal envoyziggys tritonhucklesbrookrhythm n hoovesTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
hypnotisedmajor neigh sayerwheels of fireriver speykanishkaClosers
kinswomanmajor neigh sayerriver speyrhythm n hoovesthe thames boatmanRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 10
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 drop 2 | L2 drop 2 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 3/7 · G 2/5
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.53 · Finish 0.19
Connections
Hot
William Haggas · Tom Marquand
Draw
High · A/E 1.03
250 matched runners
Historical market
14 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -4.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 13
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 rise 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 rise 2
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/3 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.06 · Finish -0.12
Connections
Hot
Harry Charlton · Callum Rodriguez
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.11
221 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.2
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 10
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/3 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.05 · Finish 0.50
Connections
Hot
George Scott · P J Mcdonald
Draw
Low · A/E 0.90
268 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.8
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +6.0
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/2 · D 10/53 · G 5/17
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.26 · Finish -0.03
Connections
Hot
Christopher Mason · Gina Mangan
Draw
Low · A/E 0.90
268 matched runners
Historical market
62 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.4
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +7.0
Recent
Declining
Trend -6
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 7/25 · G 4/17
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.49 · Finish 0.01
Connections
Steady
William Knight · Taylor Fisher
Draw
Low · A/E 0.90
268 matched runners
Historical market
53 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.0
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.0
Recent
Stable
Trend 4
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/1 · D 3/8 · G 0/6
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.11 · Finish 0.03
Connections
Steady
Richard Hannon · Pat Dobbs
Draw
High · A/E 1.03
250 matched runners
Historical market
26 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.2
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.0
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 6/28 · G 2/3
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.26 · Finish 0.02
Connections
Steady
David Omeara · William Buick
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.11
221 matched runners
Historical market
30 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.0
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/1 · D 0/1 · G 1/4
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.02 · Finish 0.31
Connections
Hot
Ed Walker · Ashley Lewis(3)
Draw
High · A/E 1.03
250 matched runners
Historical market
13 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.3
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.0
Recent
Declining
Trend -14
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/3 · G 2/6
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.56 · Finish -0.13
Connections
Steady
Roger Teal · Seamus Cronin(5)
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.11
221 matched runners
Historical market
16 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -10.0
Recent
Declining
Trend -6
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 0/5
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.08 · Finish -0.06
Connections
Steady
Ian Williams · David Probert
Draw
Low · A/E 0.90
268 matched runners
Historical market
15 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.3
Ability
Below field
OR edge -6.0
Recent
Declining
Trend -8
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 1/1 · D 6/37 · G 2/14
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.30 · Finish 0.09
Connections
Steady
Robert Cowell · Marco Ghiani
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.11
221 matched runners
Historical market
53 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -10.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 4
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 6/33 · G 0/10
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.02 · Finish 0.22
Connections
Steady
Richard Hughes · Saffie Osborne
Draw
High · A/E 1.03
250 matched runners
Historical market
59 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.6
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 30 · Newbury
2:35 Newbury
TPT Fire Handicap
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 3.73 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history8/8
Usable Official Rating8/8
Informative pace profile8/8
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
addison grey
16.7%Win
2
great acclaim
13.0%Win
Leader separation3.73pp
Race shape
Front end contested
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Negative
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderscovilleLikely leader
Pace pressureStrongFront end contested
Top threatgreat acclaim4/8 · Ability, Form, Trip
Best closeraddison greyStrong finisher
Field abilitygreat acclaimDominant
Race chaosCompetitive80
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| addison grey | 0.08 · #5Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class | -1.1Below field | Stable | Weaker | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.52Strong finisher | Steady |
| great acclaim | 0.22 · #4Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +6.9Dominant | Improving | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Trip | 0.30Strong finisher | Steady |
| stellar sunrise | 0.53 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +5.9Strong | Declining | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Trip | 0.30Strong finisher | Steady |
| scoville | 0.60 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | +1.9Competitive | Declining | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility, Yard | -0.06Neutral | Hot |
| witch hunter | -0.20 · #8Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | +0.9Competitive | Declining | Weaker | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Shape, Trip | 0.28Finishes well | Steady |
| humam | 0.31 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class | -6.1Below field | Declining | Similar | 1/8 · FairTrip | 0.34Strong finisher | Steady |
| christian david | 0.08 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | -8.1Below field | Improving | Weaker | 2/8 · FairForm, Trip | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| havana pusey | 0.06 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | -0.1Below field | Improving | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveClass, Form, Trip | 0.09Late positive | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Newbury 7f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 36 races
Going: Good To Firm8 runnersTurfStalls: Centre
LowA/E 0.97125 runners
MiddleA/E 0.75102 runners
HighA/E 1.30119 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 8 of 8 experienced runners
Archive coverage
8 of 8 runners
192 earlier WIN races matched
witch hunter · pre-off
Steamed 22 · Stable 8 · Drifted 26
56 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
witch hunter · in-play support
10%: 17 runs · 30%
25%: 12 runs · 21% · 50%: 8 runs · 14%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| addison grey | 12 | Average 1.5 Last 4 / 21 | 10.50 | Steamed 7 · Stable 2 · Drifted 2 (11 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 27% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 27% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 18% | Established2026-07-25 · York |
| great acclaim | 29 | Average 7.7 Last 7 / 16 | 19.84 | Steamed 11 · Stable 6 · Drifted 12 (29 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 13 runs · 45% 25% shorter: 10 runs · 34% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 28% | Established2026-07-25 · Ascot |
| stellar sunrise | 11 | Average 2.6 Last 6 / 16 | 14.50 | Steamed 3 · Stable 2 · Drifted 4 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 33% | Established2026-07-25 · Ascot |
| scoville | 6 | Average 3.3 Last 5 / 18 | 13.54 | Steamed 4 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 17% | Established2026-07-31 · Goodwood |
| witch hunter | 60 | Average 6.9 Last 5 / 11 | 13.61 | Steamed 22 · Stable 8 · Drifted 26 (56 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 17 runs · 30% 25% shorter: 12 runs · 21% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 14% | Established2026-08-01 · Thirsk |
| humam | 14 | Average 6.7 Last 17 / 20 | 50.00 | Steamed 7 · Stable 0 · Drifted 7 (14 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 43% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 36% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 29% | Established2026-07-29 · Goodwood |
| christian david | 25 | Average 5.5 Last 6 / 11 | 12.00 | Steamed 10 · Stable 4 · Drifted 7 (21 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 10 runs · 48% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 29% | Established2026-07-25 · Ascot |
| havana pusey | 35 | Average 5.8 Last 11 / 13 | 100.00 | Steamed 17 · Stable 6 · Drifted 10 (33 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 15 runs · 47% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 34% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 19% | Established2026-07-29 · Goodwood |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
scovillePressure
addison greygreat acclaimstellar sunrisehumamTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
christian davidhavana puseyClosers
addison greygreat acclaimstellar sunrisewitch hunterhumamhavana puseyRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.1
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/2 · D 0/0 · G 2/6
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.08 · Finish 0.52
Connections
Steady
Clive Cox · Hector Crouch
Draw
High · A/E 1.30
119 matched runners
Historical market
12 runs
Avg BSP rank 1.5
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +6.9
Recent
Improving
Trend 10
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 1/3 · D 2/12 · G 3/16
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.22 · Finish 0.30
Connections
Steady
Eve Johnson Houghton · Charles Bishop
Draw
Low · A/E 0.97
125 matched runners
Historical market
29 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.7
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -6
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 1/2 · D 2/6 · G 1/4
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.53 · Finish 0.30
Connections
Steady
Andrew Balding · P J Mcdonald
Draw
Low · A/E 0.97
125 matched runners
Historical market
11 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.6
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -16
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 2/4
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.60 · Finish -0.06
Connections
Hot
William Haggas · Tom Marquand
Draw
High · A/E 1.30
119 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.3
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -14
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 1/6 · D 4/28 · G 1/13
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.20 · Finish 0.28
Connections
Steady
Richard Hannon · Seamus Cronin(5)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.75
102 matched runners
Historical market
60 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.9
Ability
Below field
OR edge -6.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -22
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 2/8 · G 1/5
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.31 · Finish 0.34
Connections
Steady
Stuart Williams · Marco Ghiani
Draw
Low · A/E 0.97
125 matched runners
Historical market
14 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.7
Ability
Below field
OR edge -8.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 38
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 1/3 · D 3/11 · G 0/4
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.08 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Richard Hannon · Pat Dobbs
Draw
High · A/E 1.30
119 matched runners
Historical market
25 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 9
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/2 · D 2/14 · G 3/14
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.06 · Finish 0.09
Connections
Steady
John Gallagher · Daniel Muscutt
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.75
102 matched runners
Historical market
35 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.8
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 31 · Newbury
3:10 Newbury
Visit Malta Hungerford Stakes (Group 2)
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 20.28 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history9/9
Usable Official Rating9/9
Informative pace profile9/9
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
symbol of honour
29.4%Win
2
extremely zain
9.1%Win
Leader separation20.28pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Negative
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadercoppullLikely leader
Pace pressureStrongLeader under pressure
Top threatsymbol of honour3/8 · Ability, Form, Yard
Best closerprince of indiaStrong finisher
Field abilitycoppullDominant
Race chaosCompetitive69
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| symbol of honour | 0.18 · #6Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +2.2Competitive | Improving | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Yard | -0.13Neutral | Hot |
| extremely zain | 0.13 · #7Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 3 | -4.8Below field | Stable | Weaker | 2/8 · FairTrip, Yard | 0.33Strong finisher | Hot |
| coppull | 0.75 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +6.2Dominant | Improving | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form | 0.53Strong finisher | Steady |
| witness stand | 0.59 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +3.2Strong | Declining | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip | 0.15Finishes well | Quiet |
| prince of india | 0.19 · #5Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | +3.2Strong | Declining | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip | 0.59Strong finisher | Steady |
| northern champion | 0.27 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | -0.8Below field | Declining | Weaker | 2/8 · FairTrip, Yard | 0.10Finishes well | Hot |
| never so brave | 0.21 · #4Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +6.2Dominant | Declining | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip | 0.17Finishes well | Steady |
| back in black | 0.04 · #9Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | -11.8Below field | Stable | Weaker | 2/8 · FairTrip, Yard | 0.16Finishes well | Hot |
| sukanya | 0.05 · #8Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | -3.8Below field | Declining | Weaker | 3/8 · LiveShape, Trip | 0.34Strong finisher | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Newbury 7f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 36 races
Going: Good To Firm9 runnersTurfStalls: Centre
LowA/E 0.97125 runners
MiddleA/E 0.75102 runners
HighA/E 1.30119 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 9 of 9 experienced runners
Archive coverage
9 of 9 runners
118 earlier WIN races matched
witness stand · pre-off
Steamed 3 · Stable 4 · Drifted 13
20 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
witness stand · in-play support
10%: 11 runs · 55%
25%: 10 runs · 50% · 50%: 7 runs · 35%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| symbol of honour | 14 | Average 1.9 Last 3 / 7 | 5.00 | Steamed 6 · Stable 2 · Drifted 3 (11 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 36% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 36% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 36% | Established2026-07-18 · Newbury |
| extremely zain | 4 | Average 1.2 Last 1 / 16 | 4.23 | Steamed 3 · Stable 1 · Drifted 0 (4 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 100% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 50% | Descriptive2026-07-25 · Ascot |
| coppull | 8 | Average 6.3 Last 9 / 11 | 34.00 | Steamed 3 · Stable 1 · Drifted 3 (7 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 86% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 86% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 57% | Established2026-07-11 · Newmarket |
| witness stand | 21 | Average 5.5 Last 3 / 8 | 10.87 | Steamed 3 · Stable 4 · Drifted 13 (20 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 11 runs · 55% 25% shorter: 10 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 35% | Established2026-07-28 · Goodwood |
| prince of india | 17 | Average 3.5 Last 11 / 11 | 120.00 | Steamed 10 · Stable 2 · Drifted 4 (16 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 44% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 31% | Established2026-07-11 · Newmarket |
| northern champion | 6 | Average 12.0 Last 20 / 27 | 66.84 | Steamed 2 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (4 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 25% | Established2026-08-01 · Goodwood |
| never so brave | 18 | Average 2.5 Last 11 / 12 | 120.00 | Steamed 8 · Stable 5 · Drifted 4 (17 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 10 runs · 59% 25% shorter: 9 runs · 53% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 24% | Established2026-07-29 · Goodwood |
| back in black | 21 | Average 5.2 Last 4 / 16 | 10.50 | Steamed 6 · Stable 2 · Drifted 12 (20 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 11 runs · 55% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 35% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 15% | Established2026-07-25 · Ascot |
| sukanya | 9 | Average 6.7 Last 6 / 8 | 28.00 | Steamed 3 · Stable 0 · Drifted 6 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 44% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 44% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 22% | Established2026-07-25 · Ascot |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
coppullPressure
symbol of honourextremely zainwitness standprince of indianorthern championnever so braveTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
back in blackClosers
extremely zaincoppullwitness standprince of indianorthern championnever so braveback in blacksukanyaRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.2
Recent
Improving
Trend 8
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 2/2 · D 0/3 · G 3/5
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.18 · Finish -0.13
Connections
Hot
Charlie Appleby · William Buick
Draw
Low · A/E 0.97
125 matched runners
Historical market
14 runs
Avg BSP rank 1.9
Ability
Below field
OR edge -4.8
Recent
Stable
Trend -3
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 3
Conditions
Strong
C 1/1 · D 2/3 · G 0/1
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.13 · Finish 0.33
Connections
Hot
William Haggas · Tom Marquand
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.75
102 matched runners
Historical market
4 runs
Avg BSP rank 1.2
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +6.2
Recent
Improving
Trend 18
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 1/5
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.75 · Finish 0.53
Connections
Steady
Clive Cox · Hector Crouch
Draw
High · A/E 1.30
119 matched runners
Historical market
8 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.3
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -28
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 1/2 · D 4/14 · G 1/2
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.59 · Finish 0.15
Connections
Quiet
Dr Richard Newland · Saffie Osborne
Draw
High · A/E 1.30
119 matched runners
Historical market
21 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.5
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -34
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 2/7 · G 3/6
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.19 · Finish 0.59
Connections
Steady
Marco Botti · Pat Dobbs
Draw
High · A/E 1.30
119 matched runners
Historical market
17 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.8
Recent
Declining
Trend -21
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/2 · G 0/2
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.27 · Finish 0.10
Connections
Hot
Ed Walker · Kieran Shoemark
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.75
102 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 12.0
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +6.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -8
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 3/10 · G 3/5
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.21 · Finish 0.17
Connections
Steady
Andrew Balding · David Probert
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.75
102 matched runners
Historical market
18 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -11.8
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 1/2 · D 2/8 · G 1/6
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.04 · Finish 0.16
Connections
Hot
James Fanshawe · Daniel Muscutt
Draw
Low · A/E 0.97
125 matched runners
Historical market
21 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -3.8
Recent
Declining
Trend -4
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 2/2 · D 1/4 · G 1/5
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.05 · Finish 0.34
Connections
Steady
Jack Channon · Rob Hornby
Draw
Low · A/E 0.97
125 matched runners
Historical market
9 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.7
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 32 · Newbury
3:42 Newbury
Darley EBF Novice Stakes (GBB/IRE Incentive Race)
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 5.84 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Very limited
11%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history4/13
Usable Official Rating0/13
Informative pace profile0/13
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
mosheer
22.6%Win
2
lots road
16.7%Win
Leader separation5.84pp
Race shape
No clear leader
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureLight
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioEven
CollapseLow
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadermosheerUnclear
Pace pressureLightNo clear leader
Top threatanother encore2/8 · Form, Yard
Best closermosheerNeutral
Field abilityUnratedInsufficient OR coverage
Race chaosCompetitive63
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mosheer | 0.00 · #8Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| lots road | 0.00 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| maktoo | 0.00 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| mr montgomery | 0.00 · #9Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| silent force | 0.00 · #13Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| gallego | 0.00 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| red tail | 0.00 · #10Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 3 | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| san jose | 0.00 · #12Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Quiet |
| another encore | 0.00 · #1Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | —Unrated | Improving | Weak | 2/8 · FairForm, Yard | 0.00Neutral | Hot |
| saint mungo | 0.00 · #11Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| mister whippy | 0.00 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 1/8 · FairYard | 0.00Neutral | Hot |
| diamondise | 0.00 · #2Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| gambling man | 0.00 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Quiet |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Newbury 7f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going · all field sizes · 78 races
Going: Good To Firm13 runnersTurfStalls: Centre
LowA/E 1.07275 runners
MiddleA/E 0.92221 runners
HighA/E 1.00244 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Partial · 4 of 13 experienced runners
Archive coverage
4 of 13 runners
7 earlier WIN races matched
another encore · pre-off
Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1
2 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
another encore · in-play support
10%: 0 runs · 0%
25%: 0 runs · 0% · 50%: 0 runs · 0%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mosheer | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| lots road | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| maktoo | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| mr montgomery | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| silent force | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| gallego | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| red tail | 2 | Average 2.0 Last 2 / 5 | 4.30 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-08-07 · Brighton |
| san jose | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| another encore | 3 | Average 8.0 Last 8 / 8 | 220.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-07-11 · Ascot |
| saint mungo | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| mister whippy | 1 | Average 7.0 Last 7 / 9 | 65.00 | Steamed 0 · Stable 1 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-23 · Doncaster |
| diamondise | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| gambling man | 1 | Average 7.0 Last 7 / 18 | 32.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-09 · Newbury |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
mosheerPressure
No reliable signalTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
mosheerlots roadmaktoomr montgomerysilent forcegallegored tailsan joseanother encoresaint mungomister whippydiamondisegambling manClosers
No reliable signalRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Owen Burrows · Callum Rodriguez
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.92
221 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Ralph Beckett · Hector Crouch
Draw
High · A/E 1.00
244 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Charles Hills · David Probert
Draw
High · A/E 1.00
244 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Ollie Sangster · Daniel Muscutt
Draw
Low · A/E 1.07
275 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Andrew Balding · P J Mcdonald
Draw
Low · A/E 1.07
275 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Hughie Morrison · Pat Dobbs
Draw
Low · A/E 1.07
275 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 3
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Richard Hannon · Seamus Cronin
Draw
Low · A/E 1.07
275 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Quiet
Brian Meehan · Tom Marquand
Draw
High · A/E 1.00
244 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Improving
Trend 5
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 rise 1
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Hot
Harry Charlton · Saffie Osborne
Draw
High · A/E 1.00
244 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Eve Johnson Houghton · Charles Bishop
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.92
221 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Hot
Ed Walker · George Downing
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.92
221 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
William Muir & Chris Grassick · Marco Ghiani
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.92
221 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Quiet
Amanda Perrett · Rob Hornby
Draw
Low · A/E 1.07
275 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.0
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 33 · Newbury
4:20 Newbury
Swings & Smiles Supported By AP&C Handicap (GBBPlus Race)
Forecast reading
Competitive top group
Top-two win-probability separation: 2.30 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
81%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history6/6
Usable Official Rating6/6
Informative pace profile5/6
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Competitive top group
1
pinatique
24.9%Win
2
tryfan
22.6%Win
Leader separation2.30pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Negative
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderexplodeLikely leader
Pace pressureStrongLeader under pressure
Top threatexplode5/8 · Ability, Class, Form, Trip, Yard
Best closermasterinthewoodsStrong finisher
Field abilitypinatiqueStrong
Race chaosChaotic84
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pinatique | 0.00 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +3.0Strong | Unclear | Unknown | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Yard | 0.00Neutral | Hot |
| tryfan | 0.07 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 2 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 2 | +1.0Competitive | Declining | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Trip, Yard | -0.08Neutral | Hot |
| masterinthewoods | 0.16 · #4Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -1.0Below field | Stable | Weaker | 1/8 · FairTrip | 0.39Strong finisher | Steady |
| nicator | 0.22 · #2Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | -6.0Below field | Improving | Weaker | 1/8 · FairForm | -0.28Weak finisher | Steady |
| explode | 0.44 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class | +2.0Competitive | Improving | Weaker | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Form, Trip, Yard | -0.45Weak finisher | Hot |
| great bedwyn | 0.20 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +1.0Competitive | Stable | Weaker | 2/8 · FairAbility, Trip | -0.06Neutral | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Newbury 1m4f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Course/distance baseline · 133 races
Going: Good To Firm6 runnersTurfStalls: Inside
LowA/E 0.99430 runners
MiddleA/E 1.10332 runners
HighA/E 0.93380 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Partial · 5 of 6 experienced runners
Archive coverage
5 of 6 runners
88 earlier WIN races matched
great bedwyn · pre-off
Steamed 10 · Stable 6 · Drifted 14
30 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
great bedwyn · in-play support
10%: 17 runs · 57%
25%: 12 runs · 40% · 50%: 7 runs · 23%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pinatique | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| tryfan | 22 | Average 4.8 Last 7 / 8 | 32.32 | Steamed 7 · Stable 2 · Drifted 10 (19 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 11 runs · 58% 25% shorter: 9 runs · 47% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 21% | Established2026-07-11 · Ascot |
| masterinthewoods | 15 | Average 4.1 Last 3 / 15 | 6.80 | Steamed 8 · Stable 3 · Drifted 3 (14 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 57% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 36% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 21% | Established2026-07-25 · Ascot |
| nicator | 6 | Average 3.7 Last 6 / 10 | 13.00 | Steamed 3 · Stable 0 · Drifted 3 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-07-10 · York |
| explode | 11 | Average 2.4 Last 1 / 4 | 3.05 | Steamed 4 · Stable 0 · Drifted 7 (11 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 55% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 36% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 18% | Established2026-07-22 · Catterick |
| great bedwyn | 34 | Average 5.4 Last 4 / 9 | 9.20 | Steamed 10 · Stable 6 · Drifted 14 (30 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 17 runs · 57% 25% shorter: 12 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 23% | Established2026-07-10 · York |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
explodePressure
masterinthewoodsgreat bedwynTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
pinatiquetryfannicatorClosers
masterinthewoodsRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.0
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Hot
Sir Mark Prescott Bt · Dylan Hogan
Draw
Low · A/E 0.99
430 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.0
Recent
Declining
Trend -7
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 drop 2 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 2
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/5 · G 2/5
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.07 · Finish -0.08
Connections
Hot
Harry Charlton · Callum Rodriguez
Draw
Low · A/E 0.99
430 matched runners
Historical market
22 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.0
Recent
Stable
Trend -2
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/1 · D 1/5 · G 0/2
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.16 · Finish 0.39
Connections
Steady
Emma Lavelle · Marco Ghiani
Draw
High · A/E 0.93
380 matched runners
Historical market
15 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.1
Ability
Below field
OR edge -6.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 11
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/3
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.22 · Finish -0.28
Connections
Steady
Kevin Philippart De Foy · Daniel Muscutt
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.10
332 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.7
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 10
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/2 · D 1/2 · G 1/2
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.44 · Finish -0.45
Connections
Hot
Faye Bramley · William Buick
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.10
332 matched runners
Historical market
11 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.4
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.0
Recent
Stable
Trend -2
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 1/3 · D 3/17 · G 1/7
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.20 · Finish -0.06
Connections
Steady
Richard Hannon · Seamus Cronin(5)
Draw
High · A/E 0.93
380 matched runners
Historical market
34 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.4
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 34 · Newbury
4:55 Newbury
Get Following BetVictor On Instagram Handicap (GBBPlus Race)
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 6.83 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history5/5
Usable Official Rating5/5
Informative pace profile5/5
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
bayaann
29.4%Win
2
runman
22.6%Win
Leader separation6.83pp
Race shape
Front end contested
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Negative
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderbayaannPossible leader
Pace pressureStrongFront end contested
Top threatgolden knight5/8 · Class, Shape, Form, Yard
Best closerbayaannStrong finisher
Field abilitybayaannStrong
Race chaosCompetitive74
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bayaann | 0.72 · #1Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | +5.2Strong | Declining | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Yard | 0.67Strong finisher | Hot |
| runman | 0.72 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | +0.2Competitive | Declining | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Yard | -0.27Weak finisher | Hot |
| wild thoughts | 0.56 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 rise 1 | -0.8Below field | Improving | Weaker | 3/8 · LiveClass, Form, Yard | 0.07Late positive | Hot |
| golden knight | -0.11 · #5Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 rise 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 2 | -0.8Below field | Improving | Weaker | 5/8 · StrongClass, Shape, Form, Yard | -0.02Neutral | Hot |
| dream camp | 0.24 · #4Prominent | Stalking hot pace | L1 rise 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 rise 1 | -3.8Below field | Improving | Weaker | 4/8 · LiveClass, Shape, Form | -0.12Neutral | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Newbury 1m2f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going · all field sizes · 68 races
Going: Good To Firm5 runnersTurfStalls: Inside
LowA/E 1.12214 runners
MiddleA/E 0.71165 runners
HighA/E 1.10196 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 5 of 5 experienced runners
Archive coverage
5 of 5 runners
31 earlier WIN races matched
wild thoughts · pre-off
Steamed 5 · Stable 1 · Drifted 4
10 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
wild thoughts · in-play support
10%: 6 runs · 60%
25%: 4 runs · 40% · 50%: 3 runs · 30%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bayaann | 4 | Average 4.0 Last 11 / 16 | 41.13 | Steamed 1 · Stable 1 · Drifted 2 (4 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 25% | Descriptive2026-06-20 · Royal Ascot |
| runman | 4 | Average 6.2 Last 19 / 30 | 75.79 | Steamed 1 · Stable 1 · Drifted 2 (4 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 75% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 75% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 25% | Descriptive2026-06-18 · Royal Ascot |
| wild thoughts | 13 | Average 5.3 Last 13 / 19 | 30.43 | Steamed 5 · Stable 1 · Drifted 4 (10 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 60% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 30% | Established2026-07-30 · Goodwood |
| golden knight | 5 | Average 5.6 Last 2 / 4 | 2.84 | Steamed 0 · Stable 1 · Drifted 4 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 40% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 40% | Descriptive2026-07-10 · Ascot |
| dream camp | 5 | Average 8.0 Last 3 / 7 | 12.50 | Steamed 1 · Stable 1 · Drifted 3 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 60% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 60% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 40% | Descriptive2026-07-20 · Windsor |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
bayaannPressure
bayaannrunmanwild thoughtsTracking
dream campMidfield
No reliable signalClosers
bayaannwild thoughtsRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -10
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/1
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.72 · Finish 0.67
Connections
Hot
William Haggas · Tom Marquand
Draw
High · A/E 1.10
196 matched runners
Historical market
4 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.0
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -19
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.72 · Finish -0.27
Connections
Hot
John & Thady Gosden · William Buick
Draw
Low · A/E 1.12
214 matched runners
Historical market
4 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.8
Recent
Improving
Trend 45
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 2/7
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.56 · Finish 0.07
Connections
Hot
Richard Spencer · Saffie Osborne
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.71
165 matched runners
Historical market
13 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.3
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.8
Recent
Improving
Trend 6
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 rise 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 2
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 1/1 · G 1/2
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.11 · Finish -0.02
Connections
Hot
Ed Walker · Kieran Shoemark
Draw
High · A/E 1.10
196 matched runners
Historical market
5 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -3.8
Recent
Improving
Trend 24
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 rise 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 1/1 · G 1/3
Pace
Prominent
Front 0.24 · Finish -0.12
Connections
Steady
Andrew Balding · Rob Hornby
Draw
High · A/E 1.10
196 matched runners
Historical market
5 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.0
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 35 · Newmarket (July)
1:35 Newmarket (July)
Betway Boosts EBF Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)
Forecast reading
Near dead heat at the top
Top-two win-probability separation: 0.00 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Very limited
0%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history0/3
Usable Official Rating0/3
Informative pace profile0/3
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Near dead heat at the top
1
bin jahwar
—Win
2
al qayed
—Win
Leader separation0.00pp
Race shape
No clear leader
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureLight
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioEven
CollapseLow
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderbin jahwarUnclear
Pace pressureLightNo clear leader
Top threatbin jahwar1/8 · Yard
Best closerbin jahwarNeutral
Field abilityUnratedInsufficient OR coverage
Race chaosCompetitive60
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bin jahwar | 0.00 · #2Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 1/8 · FairYard | 0.00Neutral | Hot |
| al qayed | 0.00 · #1Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 1/8 · FairYard | 0.00Neutral | Hot |
| waaqed | 0.00 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 1/8 · FairYard | 0.00Neutral | Hot |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Newmarket (July) 1m draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 68 races
Going: Good To Firm3 runnersTurfStalls: Centre
LowA/E 0.84155 runners
MiddleA/E 1.29112 runners
HighA/E 0.92128 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Partial · 1 of 3 experienced runners
Archive coverage
1 of 3 runners
1 earlier WIN races matched
al qayed · pre-off
Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0
0 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
al qayed · in-play support
10%: Unavailable
25%: Unavailable · 50%: Unavailable
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bin jahwar | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| al qayed | 1 | Average — Last — | — | — | 10% shorter: — 25% shorter: — 50% shorter: — | Limited2026-06-11 · Newbury |
| waaqed | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
bin jahwarPressure
No reliable signalTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
bin jahwaral qayedwaaqedClosers
No reliable signalRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Hot
Charlie Appleby · Billy Loughnane
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.29
112 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Hot
William Haggas · Cieren Fallon
Draw
High · A/E 0.92
128 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Hot
John & Thady Gosden · Robert Havlin
Draw
Low · A/E 0.84
155 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 36 · Newmarket (July)
2:10 Newmarket (July)
Betway Grey Horse Handicap
Forecast reading
Near dead heat at the top
Top-two win-probability separation: 0.00 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history10/10
Usable Official Rating10/10
Informative pace profile10/10
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Near dead heat at the top
1
maelstrom
—Win
2
havana blue
—Win
Leader separation0.00pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadernevasca cinzaLikely leader
Pace pressureStrongLeader under pressure
Top threatmaelstrom4/8 · Ability, Class, Trip
Best closerstrikeFinishes well
Field abilitymaelstromDominant
Race chaosCompetitive75
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| maelstrom | 0.13 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +8.3Dominant | Declining | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Trip | -0.29Weak finisher | Steady |
| havana blue | 0.21 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +8.3Dominant | Improving | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form | -0.07Neutral | Steady |
| nevasca cinza | 0.38 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +0.3Competitive | Improving | Weaker | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Yard | 0.13Finishes well | Hot |
| strike | 0.05 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | -1.7Below field | Stable | Weaker | 1/8 · FairTrip | 0.19Finishes well | Steady |
| cayman tai | 0.03 · #8Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +0.3Competitive | Declining | Similar | 1/8 · FairAbility | 0.11Finishes well | Steady |
| act of violence | 0.22 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2 | -9.7Below field | Declining | Weaker | 1/8 · FairTrip | -0.34Weak finisher | Steady |
| archduke ferdinand | 0.21 · #5Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +7.3Dominant | Stable | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip | -0.33Weak finisher | Steady |
| secret guest | -0.01 · #9Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | +1.3Competitive | Stable | Similar | 2/8 · FairAbility, Trip | 0.10Late positive | Quiet |
| first folio | 0.23 · #2Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +1.3Competitive | Declining | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility, Trip | -0.21Weak finisher | Steady |
| fancy dancer | -0.12 · #10Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2 | -15.7Below field | Declining | Weaker | 1/8 · FairTrip | -0.34Weak finisher | Quiet |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Newmarket (July) 6f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 72 races
Going: Good To Firm10 runnersTurfStalls: Centre
LowA/E 1.20248 runners
MiddleA/E 0.89201 runners
HighA/E 0.90229 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 10 of 10 experienced runners
Archive coverage
10 of 10 runners
296 earlier WIN races matched
secret guest · pre-off
Steamed 26 · Stable 11 · Drifted 9
46 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
secret guest · in-play support
10%: 15 runs · 33%
25%: 9 runs · 20% · 50%: 7 runs · 15%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| maelstrom | 10 | Average 2.7 Last 7 / 13 | 20.01 | Steamed 4 · Stable 1 · Drifted 5 (10 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 30% | Established2026-07-27 · Windsor |
| havana blue | 30 | Average 5.5 Last 1 / 10 | 3.99 | Steamed 13 · Stable 6 · Drifted 10 (29 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 16 runs · 55% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 38% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 14% | Established2026-08-07 · Newmarket |
| nevasca cinza | 7 | Average 1.9 Last 2 / 7 | 4.70 | Steamed 5 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (7 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 43% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-07-14 · Ffos Las |
| strike | 44 | Average 3.5 Last 1 / 12 | 5.87 | Steamed 12 · Stable 6 · Drifted 26 (44 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 21 runs · 48% 25% shorter: 12 runs · 27% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 16% | Established2026-07-09 · Newbury |
| cayman tai | 31 | Average 4.2 Last 4 / 10 | 7.71 | Steamed 10 · Stable 4 · Drifted 16 (30 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 9 runs · 30% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 20% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 17% | Established2026-08-07 · Brighton |
| act of violence | 24 | Average 4.5 Last 2 / 11 | 5.20 | Steamed 11 · Stable 4 · Drifted 6 (21 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 9 runs · 43% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 29% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 19% | Established2026-07-18 · Ripon |
| archduke ferdinand | 37 | Average 6.3 Last 1 / 7 | 4.07 | Steamed 19 · Stable 6 · Drifted 11 (36 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 15 runs · 42% 25% shorter: 10 runs · 28% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 19% | Established2026-07-29 · Redcar |
| secret guest | 46 | Average 5.7 Last 3 / 12 | 8.49 | Steamed 26 · Stable 11 · Drifted 9 (46 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 15 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 9 runs · 20% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 15% | Established2026-07-27 · Southwell |
| first folio | 45 | Average 5.2 Last 3 / 7 | 7.85 | Steamed 13 · Stable 6 · Drifted 22 (41 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 14 runs · 34% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 27% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 15% | Established2026-07-29 · Redcar |
| fancy dancer | 22 | Average 5.0 Last 2 / 6 | 4.35 | Steamed 4 · Stable 3 · Drifted 11 (18 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 9 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 22% | Established2026-07-31 · Wolverhampton |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
nevasca cinzaPressure
archduke ferdinandTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
maelstromhavana bluestrikecayman taiact of violencesecret guestfirst foliofancy dancerClosers
nevasca cinzastrikecayman taisecret guestRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +8.3
Recent
Declining
Trend -18
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 3/10 · G 1/3
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.13 · Finish -0.29
Connections
Steady
Stuart Williams · Jack Doughty
Draw
High · A/E 0.90
229 matched runners
Historical market
10 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.7
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +8.3
Recent
Improving
Trend 13
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 1/5 · D 0/3 · G 1/10
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.21 · Finish -0.07
Connections
Steady
Julie Camacho · Ryan Sexton
Draw
High · A/E 0.90
229 matched runners
Historical market
30 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.5
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.3
Recent
Improving
Trend 6
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Weak
C 0/0 · D 0/6 · G 0/1
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.38 · Finish 0.13
Connections
Hot
James Fanshawe · Jonny Peate
Draw
Low · A/E 1.20
248 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 1.9
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.7
Recent
Stable
Trend 3
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 1/5 · D 5/27 · G 5/14
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.05 · Finish 0.19
Connections
Steady
Jonathan Portman · Billy Loughnane
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.89
201 matched runners
Historical market
44 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.5
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.3
Recent
Declining
Trend -5
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Weak
C 0/1 · D 0/16 · G 0/11
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.03 · Finish 0.11
Connections
Steady
Richard Hannon · Sean D Bowen
Draw
Low · A/E 1.20
248 matched runners
Historical market
31 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -9.7
Recent
Declining
Trend -6
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 3/15 · G 0/4
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.22 · Finish -0.34
Connections
Steady
Tony Carroll · Silvestre De Sousa
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.89
201 matched runners
Historical market
24 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.5
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +7.3
Recent
Stable
Trend 4
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 1/2 · D 4/16 · G 4/12
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.21 · Finish -0.33
Connections
Steady
Seb Spencer · Shay Farmer(5)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.89
201 matched runners
Historical market
37 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.3
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.3
Recent
Stable
Trend -2
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/1 · D 4/40 · G 0/7
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.01 · Finish 0.10
Connections
Quiet
Bryan Smart · Ray Dawson
Draw
High · A/E 0.90
229 matched runners
Historical market
46 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.7
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.3
Recent
Declining
Trend -10
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/3 · D 4/38 · G 3/15
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.23 · Finish -0.21
Connections
Steady
Julie Camacho · Clifford Lee
Draw
Low · A/E 1.20
248 matched runners
Historical market
45 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -15.7
Recent
Declining
Trend -5
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/10 · G 0/2
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.12 · Finish -0.34
Connections
Quiet
Hayley Burton · Tyler Heard
Draw
Low · A/E 1.20
248 matched runners
Historical market
22 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 37 · Newmarket (July)
2:43 Newmarket (July)
Betway Bet £10 Get £40 Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race)
Forecast reading
Near dead heat at the top
Top-two win-probability separation: 0.00 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history5/5
Usable Official Rating5/5
Informative pace profile5/5
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Near dead heat at the top
1
alma latina
—Win
2
hello friend
—Win
Leader separation0.00pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureModerate
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Positive
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderalma latinaProminent
Pace pressureModerateLeader under pressure
Top threatalma latina4/8 · Ability, Shape
Best closerhello friendStrong finisher
Field abilitydojinDominant
Race chaosNormal56
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| alma latina | 0.29 · #1Prominent | Stalking hot pace | L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class | +4.0Strong | Stable | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Shape | 0.33Strong finisher | Steady |
| hello friend | -0.45 · #5Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +1.0Competitive | Stable | Unknown | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Shape, Yard | 1.00Strong finisher | Hot |
| reem rak | -0.26 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2 | +3.0Strong | Declining | Weaker | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Yard | 0.26Finishes well | Hot |
| dojin | 0.20 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class | +6.0Dominant | Improving | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form | 0.22Finishes well | Steady |
| queen roslyn | 0.17 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | -14.0Below field | Stable | Weaker | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.15Neutral | Quiet |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Newmarket (July) 1m6f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Course/distance baseline · 41 races
Going: Good To Firm5 runnersTurfStalls: Inside
LowA/E 1.06126 runners
MiddleA/E 1.0592 runners
HighA/E 0.88102 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 5 of 5 experienced runners
Archive coverage
5 of 5 runners
46 earlier WIN races matched
queen roslyn · pre-off
Steamed 9 · Stable 5 · Drifted 6
20 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
queen roslyn · in-play support
10%: 11 runs · 58%
25%: 9 runs · 47% · 50%: 7 runs · 37%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| alma latina | 5 | Average 2.2 Last 1 / 3 | 2.40 | Steamed 3 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 60% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 20% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 20% | Descriptive2026-07-23 · Sandown |
| hello friend | 3 | Average 2.7 Last 4 / 14 | 14.56 | Steamed 1 · Stable 1 · Drifted 1 (3 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-07-27 · Southwell |
| reem rak | 7 | Average 2.5 Last — | — | Steamed 3 · Stable 0 · Drifted 3 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 33% | Established2026-06-26 · Doncaster |
| dojin | 7 | Average 3.7 Last 5 / 7 | 23.25 | Steamed 1 · Stable 1 · Drifted 5 (7 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 57% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 57% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 43% | Established2026-07-10 · Ascot |
| queen roslyn | 24 | Average 6.5 Last 9 / 13 | 23.63 | Steamed 9 · Stable 5 · Drifted 6 (20 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 11 runs · 58% 25% shorter: 9 runs · 47% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 37% | Established2026-07-24 · York |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
alma latinaPressure
dojinqueen roslynTracking
alma latinaMidfield
reem rakClosers
alma latinahello friendreem rakdojinRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.0
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/1
Pace
Prominent
Front 0.29 · Finish 0.33
Connections
Steady
Ralph Beckett · Billy Loughnane
Draw
Low · A/E 1.06
126 matched runners
Historical market
5 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.2
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.0
Recent
Stable
Trend -2
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.45 · Finish 1.00
Connections
Hot
K R Burke · Clifford Lee
Draw
High · A/E 0.88
102 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.7
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.0
Recent
Declining
Trend -10
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 1/1
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.26 · Finish 0.26
Connections
Hot
Roger Varian · Ray Dawson
Draw
High · A/E 0.88
102 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.5
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +6.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 12
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/1 · G 0/2
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.20 · Finish 0.22
Connections
Steady
S Woods · Cieren Fallon
Draw
High · A/E 0.88
102 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.7
Ability
Below field
OR edge -14.0
Recent
Stable
Trend 1
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 1/4
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.17 · Finish -0.15
Connections
Quiet
Brian Ellison · Silvestre De Sousa
Draw
Low · A/E 1.06
126 matched runners
Historical market
24 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.5
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 38 · Newmarket (July)
3:13 Newmarket (July)
Betway Bet The Responsible Way Fillies' Nursery Handicap
Forecast reading
Near dead heat at the top
Top-two win-probability separation: 0.00 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history5/5
Usable Official Rating5/5
Informative pace profile5/5
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Near dead heat at the top
1
eabha
—Win
2
fire thunder
—Win
Leader separation0.00pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Negative
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadereabhaLikely leader
Pace pressureStrongLeader under pressure
Top threatcash cove4/8 · Class, Shape, Trip
Best closereabhaStrong finisher
Field abilityeabhaDominant
Race chaosCompetitive65
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| eabha | 0.43 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | +11.0Dominant | Stable | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip | 0.67Strong finisher | Steady |
| fire thunder | -0.02 · #5Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 drop 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | -6.0Below field | Declining | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveClass, Shape | 0.57Strong finisher | Steady |
| kodi bear light | 0.33 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 rise 1 | +2.0Competitive | Declining | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Yard | -0.17Neutral | Hot |
| cash cove | 0.34 · #2Prominent | Stalking hot pace | L1 drop 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 drop 1 | -1.0Below field | Declining | Similar | 4/8 · LiveClass, Shape, Trip | 0.55Strong finisher | Steady |
| princess ivy | 0.00 · #4Prominent | Stalking hot pace | L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | -6.0Below field | Stable | Similar | 2/8 · FairShape | 0.50Strong finisher | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Newmarket (July) 7f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 77 races
Going: Good To Firm5 runnersTurfStalls: Centre
LowA/E 1.30170 runners
MiddleA/E 0.83120 runners
HighA/E 0.77139 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 5 of 5 experienced runners
Archive coverage
5 of 5 runners
21 earlier WIN races matched
fire thunder · pre-off
Steamed 0 · Stable 2 · Drifted 3
5 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
fire thunder · in-play support
10%: 3 runs · 60%
25%: 2 runs · 40% · 50%: 0 runs · 0%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| eabha | 4 | Average 3.3 Last 1 / 9 | 1.78 | Steamed 0 · Stable 2 · Drifted 1 (3 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 67% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-07-09 · Epsom |
| fire thunder | 5 | Average 3.2 Last 6 / 9 | 22.70 | Steamed 0 · Stable 2 · Drifted 3 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 60% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-08-01 · Newmarket |
| kodi bear light | 4 | Average 3.2 Last 9 / 24 | 22.73 | Steamed 3 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (4 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 25% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-07-18 · Newbury |
| cash cove | 5 | Average 5.2 Last 14 / 18 | 67.16 | Steamed 2 · Stable 1 · Drifted 2 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 60% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 40% | Descriptive2026-07-30 · Goodwood |
| princess ivy | 3 | Average 6.3 Last 5 / 8 | 12.26 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (3 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-07-20 · Windsor |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
eabhaPressure
kodi bear lightTracking
cash coveprincess ivyMidfield
No reliable signalClosers
eabhafire thundercash coveprincess ivyRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +11.0
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 1/1 · D 2/2 · G 2/3
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.43 · Finish 0.67
Connections
Steady
Eve Johnson Houghton · Billy Loughnane
Draw
High · A/E 0.77
139 matched runners
Historical market
4 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.3
Ability
Below field
OR edge -6.0
Recent
Declining
Trend -4
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/0 · G 1/2
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.02 · Finish 0.57
Connections
Steady
Marco Botti · Silvestre De Sousa
Draw
Low · A/E 1.30
170 matched runners
Historical market
5 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.2
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.0
Recent
Declining
Trend -13
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/2
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.33 · Finish -0.17
Connections
Hot
K R Burke · Clifford Lee
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.83
120 matched runners
Historical market
4 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.0
Recent
Declining
Trend -15
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/4 · G 1/3
Pace
Prominent
Front 0.34 · Finish 0.55
Connections
Steady
Charlie Johnston · Callum Shepherd
Draw
Low · A/E 1.30
170 matched runners
Historical market
5 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -6.0
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/2
Pace
Prominent
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.50
Connections
Steady
Richard Hannon · Sean D Bowen
Draw
High · A/E 0.77
139 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.3
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 39 · Newmarket (July)
3:50 Newmarket (July)
Betway Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap
Forecast reading
Near dead heat at the top
Top-two win-probability separation: 0.00 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history4/4
Usable Official Rating4/4
Informative pace profile4/4
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Near dead heat at the top
1
del corso
—Win
2
dont get me wrong
—Win
Leader separation0.00pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureModerate
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioEven
CollapseMedium
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderpipilyUnclear
Pace pressureModerateLeader under pressure
Top threatdel corso4/8 · Ability, Trip, Yard
Best closerdont get me wrongStrong finisher
Field abilitydel corsoStrong
Race chaosNormal56
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| del corso | 0.13 · #2Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +5.2Strong | Stable | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Trip, Yard | 0.00Neutral | Hot |
| dont get me wrong | -0.06 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -5.8Below field | Improving | Similar | 1/8 · FairForm | 0.44Strong finisher | Steady |
| femme beauty | 0.02 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +2.2Competitive | Stable | Weaker | 1/8 · FairAbility | 0.04Late positive | Steady |
| pipily | 0.24 · #1Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | -1.8Below field | Improving | Similar | 2/8 · FairClass, Form | -0.97Weak finisher | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Newmarket (July) 1m2f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 39 races
Going: Good To Firm4 runnersTurfStalls: Inside
LowA/E 1.2087 runners
MiddleA/E 0.7661 runners
HighA/E 1.0169 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 4 of 4 experienced runners
Archive coverage
4 of 4 runners
40 earlier WIN races matched
femme beauty · pre-off
Steamed 1 · Stable 3 · Drifted 12
16 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
femme beauty · in-play support
10%: 10 runs · 62%
25%: 7 runs · 44% · 50%: 3 runs · 19%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| del corso | 9 | Average 2.3 Last 1 / 4 | 1.46 | Steamed 6 · Stable 0 · Drifted 3 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 44% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-08-03 · Nottingham |
| dont get me wrong | 8 | Average 8.2 Last — | — | Steamed 1 · Stable 1 · Drifted 4 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 17% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 17% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 17% | Established2026-07-31 · Galway |
| femme beauty | 18 | Average 6.3 Last — | — | Steamed 1 · Stable 3 · Drifted 12 (16 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 10 runs · 62% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 44% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 19% | Established2026-07-31 · Galway |
| pipily | 5 | Average 4.8 Last 5 / 5 | 38.00 | Steamed 2 · Stable 0 · Drifted 3 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 60% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 40% | Descriptive2026-07-18 · Newmarket |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
pipilyPressure
No reliable signalTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
del corsodont get me wrongfemme beautypipilyClosers
dont get me wrongRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.2
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 2/2 · G 2/4
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.13 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Hot
Ed Walker · Billy Loughnane
Draw
Low · A/E 1.20
87 matched runners
Historical market
9 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.3
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.8
Recent
Improving
Trend 21
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.06 · Finish 0.44
Connections
Steady
Gerard Oleary · Cieren Fallon
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.76
61 matched runners
Historical market
8 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.2
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.2
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.02 · Finish 0.04
Connections
Steady
Gerard Oleary · Clifford Lee
Draw
High · A/E 1.01
69 matched runners
Historical market
18 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.3
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.8
Recent
Improving
Trend 12
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/3 · D 0/1 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.24 · Finish -0.97
Connections
Steady
T J Kent · Ray Dawson
Draw
Low · A/E 1.20
87 matched runners
Historical market
5 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.8
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 40 · Newmarket (July)
4:25 Newmarket (July)
Betway Free Bet Club Fillies' Handicap
Forecast reading
Near dead heat at the top
Top-two win-probability separation: 0.00 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history5/5
Usable Official Rating5/5
Informative pace profile5/5
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Near dead heat at the top
1
hamdas joy
—Win
2
lightning glory
—Win
Leader separation0.00pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Negative
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderhamdas joyLikely leader
Pace pressureStrongLeader under pressure
Top threatstormy music4/8 · Class, Shape, Form
Best closerhamdas joyStrong finisher
Field abilitylightning gloryCompetitive
Race chaosChaotic86
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hamdas joy | 0.68 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -0.6Below field | Stable | Similar | 1/8 · FairYard | 0.38Strong finisher | Hot |
| lightning glory | 0.50 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +2.4Competitive | Improving | Weaker | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Yard | -0.04Neutral | Hot |
| lovers leap | 0.46 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | -3.6Below field | Stable | Weaker | 1/8 · FairClass | -0.64Weak finisher | Steady |
| stormy music | 0.17 · #5Prominent | Stalking hot pace | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | -0.6Below field | Improving | Similar | 4/8 · LiveClass, Shape, Form | -0.75Weak finisher | Steady |
| renesmee | 0.28 · #4Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 3 | L3 drop 1 | +2.4Competitive | Declining | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Trip | 0.06Late positive | Quiet |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Newmarket (July) 1m draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 68 races
Going: Good To Firm5 runnersTurfStalls: Centre
LowA/E 0.84155 runners
MiddleA/E 1.29112 runners
HighA/E 0.92128 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 5 of 5 experienced runners
Archive coverage
5 of 5 runners
79 earlier WIN races matched
renesmee · pre-off
Steamed 19 · Stable 9 · Drifted 21
49 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
renesmee · in-play support
10%: 24 runs · 49%
25%: 14 runs · 29% · 50%: 8 runs · 16%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hamdas joy | 5 | Average 2.4 Last 2 / 12 | 5.21 | Steamed 4 · Stable 1 · Drifted 0 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 60% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 60% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 20% | Descriptive2026-07-05 · Southwell |
| lightning glory | 7 | Average 3.5 Last 3 / 9 | 5.34 | Steamed 2 · Stable 0 · Drifted 4 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 17% | Established2026-07-31 · Wolverhampton |
| lovers leap | 8 | Average 2.7 Last 1 / 8 | 2.60 | Steamed 4 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 17% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-07-08 · Yarmouth |
| stormy music | 5 | Average 3.6 Last 5 / 7 | 9.23 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 5 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 20% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 20% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 20% | Descriptive2026-08-06 · Newmarket |
| renesmee | 54 | Average 6.0 Last 9 / 9 | 70.00 | Steamed 19 · Stable 9 · Drifted 21 (49 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 24 runs · 49% 25% shorter: 14 runs · 29% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 16% | Established2026-07-31 · Newmarket |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
hamdas joyPressure
lightning glorylovers leaprenesmeeTracking
stormy musicMidfield
No reliable signalClosers
hamdas joyrenesmeeRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.6
Recent
Stable
Trend -0
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.68 · Finish 0.38
Connections
Hot
Tom Clover · Cieren Fallon
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.29
112 matched runners
Historical market
5 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.4
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.4
Recent
Improving
Trend 16
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Weak
C 0/0 · D 0/4 · G 0/1
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.50 · Finish -0.04
Connections
Hot
Simon & Ed Crisford · Silvestre De Sousa
Draw
High · A/E 0.92
128 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -3.6
Recent
Stable
Trend -2
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 1/2
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.46 · Finish -0.64
Connections
Steady
Jane Chapple-Hyam · Billy Loughnane
Draw
Low · A/E 0.84
155 matched runners
Historical market
8 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.7
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.6
Recent
Improving
Trend 14
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Neutral
C 1/1 · D 1/1 · G 1/2
Pace
Prominent
Front 0.17 · Finish -0.75
Connections
Steady
Andrew Balding · Alfie Redman(7)
Draw
High · A/E 0.92
128 matched runners
Historical market
5 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.6
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.4
Recent
Declining
Trend -6
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 3 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/5 · D 2/16 · G 1/11
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.28 · Finish 0.06
Connections
Quiet
Michael Keady · Kyle Mchugh(7)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.84
155 matched runners
Historical market
54 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.0
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 41 · Newmarket (July)
5:00 Newmarket (July)
Watch Live Racing At Betway Handicap
Forecast reading
Near dead heat at the top
Top-two win-probability separation: 0.00 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history7/7
Usable Official Rating7/7
Informative pace profile7/7
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Near dead heat at the top
1
norcross brow
—Win
2
cherry cobbler
—Win
Leader separation0.00pp
Race shape
Front end contested
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderaspullPossible leader
Pace pressureStrongFront end contested
Top threatnorcross brow5/8 · Ability, Form, Trip, Yard
Best closermister mojitoFinishes well
Field abilitynorcross browStrong
Race chaosCompetitive77
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| norcross brow | 0.14 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | +4.7Strong | Improving | Similar | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Form, Trip, Yard | 0.03Neutral | Hot |
| cherry cobbler | 0.31 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +2.7Competitive | Improving | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Form, Trip | -0.11Neutral | Steady |
| mister mojito | -0.11 · #6Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -0.3Below field | Declining | Weaker | 3/8 · LiveShape, Trip | 0.19Finishes well | Steady |
| jersey maverick | 0.16 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | -1.3Below field | Improving | Similar | 3/8 · LiveClass, Form, Trip | 0.08Late positive | Steady |
| bucklow hill | -0.28 · #7Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +1.7Competitive | Stable | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Shape | 0.10Late positive | Steady |
| electrical | 0.39 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | -5.3Below field | Stable | Stronger | 2/8 · FairClass, Yard | -0.22Weak finisher | Hot |
| aspull | 0.44 · #1Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | -2.3Below field | Stable | Similar | 2/8 · FairClass, Trip | -0.52Weak finisher | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Newmarket (July) 7f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 77 races
Going: Good To Firm7 runnersTurfStalls: Centre
LowA/E 1.30170 runners
MiddleA/E 0.83120 runners
HighA/E 0.77139 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 7 of 7 experienced runners
Archive coverage
7 of 7 runners
96 earlier WIN races matched
mister mojito · pre-off
Steamed 12 · Stable 2 · Drifted 11
25 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
mister mojito · in-play support
10%: 9 runs · 36%
25%: 7 runs · 28% · 50%: 6 runs · 24%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| norcross brow | 12 | Average 4.4 Last 1 / 7 | 2.22 | Steamed 6 · Stable 1 · Drifted 4 (11 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 36% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 27% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 18% | Established2026-07-28 · Beverley |
| cherry cobbler | 15 | Average 4.5 Last 7 / 9 | 15.46 | Steamed 6 · Stable 0 · Drifted 9 (15 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 40% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 27% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 27% | Established2026-07-31 · Newmarket |
| mister mojito | 30 | Average 3.9 Last 2 / 11 | 3.98 | Steamed 12 · Stable 2 · Drifted 11 (25 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 9 runs · 36% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 28% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 24% | Established2026-08-04 · Lingfield |
| jersey maverick | 18 | Average 6.6 Last 2 / 6 | 4.47 | Steamed 5 · Stable 0 · Drifted 13 (18 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 22% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 17% | Established2026-07-09 · Epsom |
| bucklow hill | 5 | Average 5.2 Last 8 / 8 | 26.85 | Steamed 1 · Stable 1 · Drifted 2 (4 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 75% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 25% | Descriptive2026-07-23 · Doncaster |
| electrical | 7 | Average 6.9 Last 6 / 6 | 60.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 6 (7 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 33% | Established2026-08-01 · Newmarket |
| aspull | 9 | Average 4.6 Last 10 / 10 | 320.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 6 (7 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 71% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 43% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 14% | Established2026-08-07 · Newmarket |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
aspullPressure
cherry cobblerelectricalaspullTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
norcross browjersey maverickClosers
mister mojitojersey maverickbucklow hillRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.7
Recent
Improving
Trend 15
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/1 · D 2/3 · G 2/4
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.14 · Finish 0.03
Connections
Hot
Charlie Clover · Liam Wright(5)
Draw
High · A/E 0.77
139 matched runners
Historical market
12 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.4
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.7
Recent
Improving
Trend 8
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/2 · D 1/7 · G 0/3
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.31 · Finish -0.11
Connections
Steady
Stuart Williams · Chloe Lyons(7)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.83
120 matched runners
Historical market
15 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.3
Recent
Declining
Trend -4
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/2 · D 5/18 · G 2/11
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.11 · Finish 0.19
Connections
Steady
T J Kent · Billy Loughnane
Draw
Low · A/E 1.30
170 matched runners
Historical market
30 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.9
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.3
Recent
Improving
Trend 10
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/13 · G 1/5
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.16 · Finish 0.08
Connections
Steady
Charlie Fellowes · Paddy Bradley
Draw
Low · A/E 1.30
170 matched runners
Historical market
18 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.6
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.7
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/3
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.28 · Finish 0.10
Connections
Steady
Charles Hills · Callum Shepherd
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.83
120 matched runners
Historical market
5 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.3
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/1 · D 0/3 · G 1/3
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.39 · Finish -0.22
Connections
Hot
Brian Toomey · Clifford Lee
Draw
Low · A/E 1.30
170 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.9
Ability
Below field
OR edge -2.3
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/1 · D 1/4 · G 1/4
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.44 · Finish -0.52
Connections
Steady
Phil Mcentee · Grace Mcentee
Draw
High · A/E 0.77
139 matched runners
Historical market
9 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.6
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 42 · Perth
1:40 Perth
Visit Perth Museum Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)
Forecast reading
Competitive top group
Top-two win-probability separation: 1.61 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Moderate
71%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history7/7
Usable Official Rating3/7
Informative pace profile7/7
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Competitive top group
1
try them
22.6%Win
2
st just in time
21.0%Win
Leader separation1.61pp
Race shape
Narrow pace edge
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureModerate
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Positive
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderbigglesProminent
Pace pressureModerateNarrow pace edge
Top threattry them5/8 · Ability, Shape, Form
Best closerbigglesStrong finisher
Field abilitytry themStrong
Race chaosCompetitive74
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| try them | -0.37 · #7Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | +4.0Strong | Improving | Similar | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Shape, Form | -0.28Weak finisher | Steady |
| st just in time | -0.13 · #4Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | +1.0Competitive | Improving | Weaker | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Shape, Form, Yard | -0.14Neutral | Hot |
| crackalackin | 0.31 · #2Prominent | Stalking hot pace | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -5.0Below field | Improving | Weaker | 3/8 · LiveShape, Form | -0.25Weak finisher | Quiet |
| biggles | 0.34 · #1Prominent | Stalking hot pace | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 2 | —Unrated | Stable | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveClass, Shape | 0.39Strong finisher | Steady |
| hawthorn road | -0.28 · #5Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class | —Unrated | Stable | Weaker | 2/8 · FairShape | -0.40Weak finisher | Steady |
| tracker issue | 0.31 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2 | —Unrated | Improving | Stronger | 2/8 · FairForm, Yard | -0.49Weak finisher | Hot |
| cest pour moi | -0.35 · #6Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | —Unrated | Stable | Unknown | 2/8 · FairShape | 0.00Neutral | Quiet |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Perth 2m47y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Insufficient evidence · 0 races
Going: Good7 runnersTurfStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E —0 runners
MiddleA/E —0 runners
HighA/E —0 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 7 of 7 experienced runners
Archive coverage
7 of 7 runners
83 earlier WIN races matched
biggles · pre-off
Steamed 9 · Stable 3 · Drifted 12
24 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
biggles · in-play support
10%: 12 runs · 50%
25%: 7 runs · 29% · 50%: 6 runs · 25%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| try them | 6 | Average 4.7 Last 4 / 9 | 19.42 | Steamed 2 · Stable 0 · Drifted 4 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 83% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 67% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 50% | Established2026-07-02 · Perth |
| st just in time | 15 | Average 5.8 Last — | — | Steamed 4 · Stable 4 · Drifted 4 (12 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 42% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 33% | Established2026-07-15 · Uttoxeter |
| crackalackin | 14 | Average 3.6 Last 2 / 8 | 13.80 | Steamed 6 · Stable 1 · Drifted 7 (14 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 43% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 14% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 7% | Established2026-05-19 · Huntingdon |
| biggles | 27 | Average 3.1 Last 3 / 13 | 5.40 | Steamed 9 · Stable 3 · Drifted 12 (24 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 12 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 29% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 25% | Established2026-07-24 · Uttoxeter |
| hawthorn road | 3 | Average 4.3 Last 7 / 13 | 340.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (3 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 33% | Descriptive2026-05-14 · Perth |
| tracker issue | 16 | Average 7.9 Last 9 / 13 | 526.94 | Steamed 4 · Stable 4 · Drifted 8 (16 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 9 runs · 56% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 38% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 12% | Established2026-07-24 · Uttoxeter |
| cest pour moi | 2 | Average 6.0 Last 7 / 9 | 53.65 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-06-06 · Worcester |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
bigglesPressure
tracker issueTracking
crackalackinbigglesMidfield
No reliable signalClosers
bigglesRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 8
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/1 · D 0/2 · G 0/1
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.37 · Finish -0.28
Connections
Steady
Patrick Neville · Brian Hughes
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.7
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 10
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 0/3
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.13 · Finish -0.14
Connections
Hot
Harry Derham · Paul Obrien
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
15 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 9
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/3 · G 0/2
Pace
Prominent
Front 0.31 · Finish -0.25
Connections
Quiet
Dr Richard Newland · Luke Scott(3)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
14 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.6
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend 3
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 2
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 1/8
Pace
Prominent
Front 0.34 · Finish 0.39
Connections
Steady
Tom Lacey · Stan Sheppard
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
27 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.1
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/1 · D 0/1 · G 0/0
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.28 · Finish -0.40
Connections
Steady
Iain Jardine · Dylan Johnston
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.3
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Improving
Trend 32
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 same class | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 0/4
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.31 · Finish -0.49
Connections
Hot
Adam Nicol · Ryan Mania
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
16 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.9
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend 3
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 0/2
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.35 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Quiet
Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies · Miss Amber Jackson-Fennell(7)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.0
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 43 · Perth
2:15 Perth
QuinnBet Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 14.48 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
75%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history5/5
Usable Official Rating5/5
Informative pace profile3/5
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
tamarind bay
34.0%Win
2
follow your luck
19.5%Win
Leader separation14.48pp
Race shape
Solo lead chance
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureLight
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioEven
CollapseLow
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderglen to glenUnclear
Pace pressureLightSolo lead chance
Top threattamarind bay5/8 · Ability, Form, Trip, Yard
Best closertamarind bayStrong finisher
Field abilitytamarind bayDominant
Race chaosNormal46
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tamarind bay | -0.05 · #5Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | +8.0Dominant | Improving | Stronger | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Form, Trip, Yard | 0.33Strong finisher | Hot |
| follow your luck | 0.00 · #2Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | +4.0Strong | Unclear | Weaker | 2/8 · FairAbility | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| glen to glen | 0.13 · #1Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +8.0Dominant | Improving | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form | -0.48Weak finisher | Steady |
| ras kassar | 0.00 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | -9.0Below field | Stable | Weaker | 1/8 · FairYard | -0.80Weak finisher | Hot |
| kinbara firstdraft | -0.04 · #4Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | -11.0Below field | Declining | Weaker | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.37Weak finisher | Quiet |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Perth 2m4f20y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Insufficient evidence · 0 races
Going: Good5 runnersTurfStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E —0 runners
MiddleA/E —0 runners
HighA/E —0 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 5 of 5 experienced runners
Archive coverage
5 of 5 runners
62 earlier WIN races matched
kinbara firstdraft · pre-off
Steamed 10 · Stable 2 · Drifted 8
20 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
kinbara firstdraft · in-play support
10%: 13 runs · 65%
25%: 10 runs · 50% · 50%: 8 runs · 40%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tamarind bay | 20 | Average 2.8 Last 1 / 3 | 2.06 | Steamed 9 · Stable 1 · Drifted 7 (17 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 9 runs · 53% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 35% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 24% | Established2026-06-28 · Uttoxeter |
| follow your luck | 2 | Average 1.5 Last 1 / 4 | 1.30 | Steamed 2 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 50% | Limited2026-02-19 · Sedgefield |
| glen to glen | 14 | Average 5.4 Last 3 / 12 | 6.50 | Steamed 2 · Stable 2 · Drifted 9 (13 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 46% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 38% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 31% | Established2026-06-15 · Kilbeggan |
| ras kassar | 2 | Average 2.5 Last 3 / 10 | 10.09 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 50% | Limited2026-07-26 · Uttoxeter |
| kinbara firstdraft | 24 | Average 6.0 Last 6 / 6 | 24.00 | Steamed 10 · Stable 2 · Drifted 8 (20 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 13 runs · 65% 25% shorter: 10 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 40% | Established2026-07-12 · Perth |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
glen to glenPressure
No reliable signalTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
follow your luckglen to glenras kassarClosers
tamarind bayRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +8.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 22
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/6 · G 2/7
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.05 · Finish 0.33
Connections
Hot
Mickey Bowen · Sean Bowen
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
20 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.8
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.0
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 1/1 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Patrick Neville · Brian Hughes
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 1.5
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +8.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 7
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/3
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.13 · Finish -0.48
Connections
Steady
Nick Scholfield · Kielan Woods
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
14 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.4
Ability
Below field
OR edge -9.0
Recent
Stable
Trend 3
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/1 · D 0/1 · G 0/2
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish -0.80
Connections
Hot
David Pipe · Dylan Johnston
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -11.0
Recent
Declining
Trend -56
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Weak
C 1/8 · D 0/4 · G 1/9
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.04 · Finish -0.37
Connections
Quiet
Leonard Kerr · Derek Fox
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
24 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.0
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 44 · Perth
2:50 Perth
IM Group Handicap Hurdle
Forecast reading
Competitive top group
Top-two win-probability separation: 1.93 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history10/10
Usable Official Rating10/10
Informative pace profile10/10
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Competitive top group
1
dreams ka
19.5%Win
2
cosmic soul
17.6%Win
Leader separation1.93pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Negative
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderofaolains gloryLikely leader
Pace pressureStrongLeader under pressure
Top threatlets mingle6/8 · Ability, Shape, Form, Trip
Best closersummergroundsFinishes well
Field abilitylets mingleDominant
Race chaosCompetitive76
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dreams ka | -0.13 · #10Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +7.1Dominant | Improving | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Trip | -0.01Neutral | Steady |
| cosmic soul | 0.19 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | +0.1Competitive | Improving | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Trip | -0.06Neutral | Steady |
| lets mingle | 0.03 · #5Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +8.1Dominant | Improving | Similar | 6/8 · StrongAbility, Shape, Form, Trip | -0.36Weak finisher | Steady |
| just dottie | -0.05 · #8Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 rise 2 | L2 same class | L3 same class | -1.9Below field | Declining | Weaker | 2/8 · FairShape | -0.07Neutral | Steady |
| summergrounds | -0.07 · #9Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class | +4.1Strong | Declining | Similar | 6/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Shape, Trip | 0.10Finishes well | Steady |
| struth | 0.29 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class | -12.9Below field | Stable | Similar | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.38Weak finisher | Steady |
| follow charlie | 0.01 · #6Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | +0.1Competitive | Improving | Weaker | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Shape, Form, Trip | -0.30Weak finisher | Steady |
| garde des champs | -0.02 · #7Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | +0.1Competitive | Stable | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Shape | -0.21Weak finisher | Steady |
| ofaolains glory | 0.41 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 2 | L2 same class | L3 same class | -0.9Below field | Declining | Similar | 2/8 · FairClass, Trip | -0.43Weak finisher | Steady |
| annie agnew | 0.14 · #4Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L2 same class | -3.9Below field | Improving | Similar | 1/8 · FairForm | -0.15Neutral | Quiet |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Perth 2m4f35y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Insufficient evidence · 0 races
Going: Good10 runnersTurfStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E —0 runners
MiddleA/E —0 runners
HighA/E —0 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 10 of 10 experienced runners
Archive coverage
10 of 10 runners
280 earlier WIN races matched
garde des champs · pre-off
Steamed 10 · Stable 7 · Drifted 23
40 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
garde des champs · in-play support
10%: 25 runs · 62%
25%: 17 runs · 42% · 50%: 9 runs · 22%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dreams ka | 10 | Average 3.9 Last 2 / 10 | 6.40 | Steamed 0 · Stable 1 · Drifted 9 (10 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 40% | Established2026-07-24 · Uttoxeter |
| cosmic soul | 32 | Average 4.6 Last — | — | Steamed 10 · Stable 3 · Drifted 14 (27 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 21 runs · 78% 25% shorter: 18 runs · 67% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 22% | Established2026-07-11 · York |
| lets mingle | 14 | Average 4.9 Last 8 / 9 | 25.00 | Steamed 3 · Stable 0 · Drifted 9 (12 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 17% | Established2026-07-12 · Perth |
| just dottie | 32 | Average 4.7 Last 4 / 9 | 7.14 | Steamed 15 · Stable 3 · Drifted 13 (31 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 17 runs · 55% 25% shorter: 16 runs · 52% 50% shorter: 10 runs · 32% | Established2026-07-27 · Ayr |
| summergrounds | 29 | Average 3.8 Last 3 / 9 | 8.20 | Steamed 10 · Stable 2 · Drifted 12 (24 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 16 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 46% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 21% | Established2026-07-12 · Perth |
| struth | 33 | Average 5.7 Last 6 / 9 | 18.05 | Steamed 16 · Stable 6 · Drifted 10 (32 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 20 runs · 62% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 34% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 16% | Established2026-07-12 · Perth |
| follow charlie | 33 | Average 5.7 Last 6 / 7 | 20.31 | Steamed 8 · Stable 9 · Drifted 14 (31 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 22 runs · 76% 25% shorter: 18 runs · 62% 50% shorter: 11 runs · 38% | Established2026-07-12 · Perth |
| garde des champs | 46 | Average 4.2 Last 3 / 6 | 7.00 | Steamed 10 · Stable 7 · Drifted 23 (40 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 25 runs · 62% 25% shorter: 17 runs · 42% 50% shorter: 9 runs · 22% | Established2026-07-12 · Perth |
| ofaolains glory | 41 | Average 6.4 Last 10 / 12 | 26.67 | Steamed 13 · Stable 8 · Drifted 13 (34 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 27 runs · 82% 25% shorter: 21 runs · 64% 50% shorter: 14 runs · 42% | Established2026-03-22 · Carlisle |
| annie agnew | 10 | Average 4.0 Last — | — | Steamed 4 · Stable 1 · Drifted 4 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 56% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 22% | Established2026-08-07 · Wexford |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
ofaolains gloryPressure
dreams kacosmic soulstruthannie agnewTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
No reliable signalClosers
summergroundsRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +7.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 24
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/3 · G 2/6
Pace
Possible leader
Front -0.13 · Finish -0.01
Connections
Steady
Katie Scott · Ryan Mania
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
10 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.9
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 28
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/2 · D 2/2 · G 3/10
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.19 · Finish -0.06
Connections
Steady
Patrick Neville · Brian Hughes
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
32 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.6
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +8.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 4
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 2/4 · D 2/4 · G 2/6
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.03 · Finish -0.36
Connections
Steady
Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore · Jack Power(5)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
14 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.9
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -26
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 4/17 · D 0/0 · G 2/14
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.05 · Finish -0.07
Connections
Steady
R Mike Smith · Ben Smith(7)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
32 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.7
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -6
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/5 · D 1/8 · G 1/14
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.07 · Finish 0.10
Connections
Steady
Nicky Richards · Ella Mcgarry(10)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
29 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -12.9
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/5 · D 0/1 · G 0/13
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.29 · Finish -0.38
Connections
Steady
Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore · Derek Fox
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
33 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.7
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 20
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 2/7 · D 1/4 · G 2/5
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.01 · Finish -0.30
Connections
Steady
R Mike Smith · Murray Dodd(5)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
33 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.7
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.1
Recent
Stable
Trend -4
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Weak
C 2/20 · D 0/15 · G 2/27
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.02 · Finish -0.21
Connections
Steady
Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore · Gregor Walkingshaw(10)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
46 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -20
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 drop 2 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/1 · D 1/6 · G 1/9
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.41 · Finish -0.43
Connections
Steady
Susan Corbett · Nathan Moscrop
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
41 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.4
Ability
Below field
OR edge -3.9
Recent
Improving
Trend 5
Trajectory
Same grade
L2 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/3 · D 0/2 · G 0/4
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.14 · Finish -0.15
Connections
Quiet
Gerald Stephen Quinn · Benjamin Macey(5)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
10 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.0
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 45 · Perth
3:32 Perth
Malcolm Group Handicap Hurdle
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 7.21 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
83%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history11/11
Usable Official Rating11/11
Informative pace profile10/11
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
october hill
22.6%Win
2
just oot
15.4%Win
Leader separation7.21pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Negative
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderfortunes dawnLikely leader
Pace pressureStrongLeader under pressure
Top threatdalileo7/8 · Ability, Class, Shape, Form, Trip
Best closerdalileoLate positive
Field abilitydolly diorDominant
Race chaosCompetitive70
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| october hill | 0.22 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class | +9.8Dominant | Declining | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Yard | -0.05Neutral | Hot |
| just oot | 0.00 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +8.8Dominant | Declining | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| dalileo | -0.11 · #10Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | +7.8Dominant | Improving | Stronger | 7/8 · MajorAbility, Class, Shape, Form, Trip | 0.05Late positive | Steady |
| ceol draiochta | 0.31 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | +6.8Dominant | Stable | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Yard | -0.24Weak finisher | Hot |
| dolly dior | 0.16 · #5Prominent | Stalking hot pace | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +11.8Dominant | Stable | Stronger | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Shape | -0.20Weak finisher | Steady |
| drumlee myth | -0.01 · #8Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | -5.2Below field | Stable | Weaker | 3/8 · LiveClass, Shape | -0.16Neutral | Steady |
| broken ice | -0.04 · #9Hold-up | Pace to aim at | No recent class line | +6.8Dominant | Declining | Weaker | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Shape, Trip | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| magic gloves | 0.06 · #6Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -11.2Below field | Declining | Weaker | 2/8 · FairShape | -0.80Weak finisher | Steady |
| quinnfinity | -0.35 · #11Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | -8.2Below field | Unclear | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveClass, Shape | -0.80Weak finisher | Steady |
| fortunes dawn | 0.68 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | -13.2Below field | Stable | Stronger | 1/8 · FairClass | 0.00Neutral | Quiet |
| burgundy man | 0.17 · #4Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -14.2Below field | Stable | Similar | 1/8 · FairTrip | -0.19Weak finisher | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Perth 2m7f207y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Insufficient evidence · 0 races
Going: Good11 runnersTurfStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E —0 runners
MiddleA/E —0 runners
HighA/E —0 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 11 of 11 experienced runners
Archive coverage
11 of 11 runners
256 earlier WIN races matched
dalileo · pre-off
Steamed 36 · Stable 17 · Drifted 37
90 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
dalileo · in-play support
10%: 41 runs · 46%
25%: 28 runs · 31% · 50%: 19 runs · 21%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| october hill | 16 | Average 4.2 Last 3 / 8 | 5.80 | Steamed 3 · Stable 2 · Drifted 9 (14 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 11 runs · 79% 25% shorter: 9 runs · 64% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 29% | Established2026-07-26 · Uttoxeter |
| just oot | 6 | Average 4.8 Last 2 / 9 | 5.40 | Steamed 4 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 17% | Established2025-06-14 · Hexham |
| dalileo | 99 | Average 5.7 Last 3 / 7 | 5.47 | Steamed 36 · Stable 17 · Drifted 37 (90 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 41 runs · 46% 25% shorter: 28 runs · 31% 50% shorter: 19 runs · 21% | Established2026-07-12 · Perth |
| ceol draiochta | 12 | Average 6.8 Last 7 / 9 | 19.00 | Steamed 3 · Stable 0 · Drifted 7 (10 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 80% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 40% | Established2026-07-12 · Perth |
| dolly dior | 5 | Average 6.4 Last 3 / 5 | 11.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 1 · Drifted 3 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 40% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 20% | Descriptive2026-07-12 · Perth |
| drumlee myth | 9 | Average 4.3 Last 5 / 9 | 15.50 | Steamed 6 · Stable 1 · Drifted 2 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 56% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 22% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 11% | Established2026-07-20 · Cartmel |
| broken ice | 72 | Average 6.2 Last 11 / 15 | 42.00 | Steamed 26 · Stable 12 · Drifted 21 (59 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 38 runs · 64% 25% shorter: 35 runs · 59% 50% shorter: 14 runs · 24% | Established2026-07-14 · Downpatrick |
| magic gloves | 6 | Average 5.8 Last 7 / 12 | 34.00 | Steamed 2 · Stable 0 · Drifted 4 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 83% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 83% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 50% | Established2026-06-07 · Perth |
| quinnfinity | 3 | Average 8.0 Last 9 / 9 | 630.00 | Steamed 0 · Stable 1 · Drifted 2 (3 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-07-02 · Perth |
| fortunes dawn | 4 | Average 8.0 Last 5 / 5 | 550.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (3 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-07-12 · Perth |
| burgundy man | 24 | Average 6.7 Last 5 / 7 | 12.50 | Steamed 10 · Stable 2 · Drifted 11 (23 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 18 runs · 78% 25% shorter: 13 runs · 57% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 30% | Established2026-07-02 · Perth |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
fortunes dawnPressure
october hillceol draiochtaburgundy manTracking
dolly diorMidfield
just ootClosers
No reliable signalRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +9.8
Recent
Declining
Trend -12
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/8
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.22 · Finish -0.05
Connections
Hot
David Pipe · Rian Corcoran(5)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
16 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.2
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +8.8
Recent
Declining
Trend -6
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/2
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Susan Corbett · Nathan Moscrop
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.8
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +7.8
Recent
Improving
Trend 4
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 5/26 · D 4/23 · G 5/32
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.11 · Finish 0.05
Connections
Steady
Lisa Harrison · Callum Bewley
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
99 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.7
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +6.8
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/0 · G 0/5
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.31 · Finish -0.24
Connections
Hot
Adam Nicol · Ryan Mania
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
12 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.8
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +11.8
Recent
Stable
Trend 3
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/3 · D 0/0 · G 1/5
Pace
Prominent
Front 0.16 · Finish -0.20
Connections
Steady
Patrick Neville · Brian Hughes
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
5 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.4
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.2
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/3 · D 0/0 · G 1/4
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.01 · Finish -0.16
Connections
Steady
S Mcparlan · Mr N Mcparlan(3)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
9 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.3
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +6.8
Recent
Declining
Trend -60
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 1/1 · D 1/2 · G 2/18
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.04 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
John C Mcconnell · Alex Harvey(3)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
72 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -11.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -15
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/2 · D 0/0 · G 0/4
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.06 · Finish -0.80
Connections
Steady
Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore · Derek Fox
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -8.2
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/3 · D 0/0 · G 0/3
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.35 · Finish -0.80
Connections
Steady
R Mike Smith · Toby Wynne
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.0
Ability
Below field
OR edge -13.2
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/0 · G 0/3
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.68 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Quiet
William Young Jnr · Peter Kavanagh
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
4 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.0
Ability
Below field
OR edge -14.2
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 1/15 · D 1/9 · G 0/16
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.17 · Finish -0.19
Connections
Steady
R Mike Smith · Bruce Lynn
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
24 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.7
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 46 · Perth
4:05 Perth
Scone Estates Stone Of Destiny Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 4.14 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history8/8
Usable Official Rating8/8
Informative pace profile8/8
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
medieval gold
19.5%Win
2
fidendum
15.4%Win
Leader separation4.14pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Negative
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderscriabinLikely leader
Pace pressureStrongLeader under pressure
Top threatmedieval gold5/8 · Ability, Shape, Form, Trip
Best closerthe last cloudStrong finisher
Field abilitythe last cloudDominant
Race chaosCompetitive70
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| medieval gold | -0.42 · #8Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 1 | +0.1Competitive | Improving | Weaker | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Shape, Form, Trip | 0.31Strong finisher | Steady |
| fidendum | 0.13 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2 | -0.9Below field | Improving | Weaker | 1/8 · FairForm | 0.28Finishes well | Steady |
| the last cloud | 0.03 · #5Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +12.1Dominant | Improving | Stronger | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Form, Trip | 0.51Strong finisher | Steady |
| squeezebox | 0.28 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2 | +2.1Competitive | Improving | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Trip | -0.01Neutral | Steady |
| filibustering | 0.07 · #4Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 1 | +12.1Dominant | Improving | Similar | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Form, Trip, Yard | -0.03Neutral | Hot |
| scriabin | 0.48 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2 | -6.9Below field | Stable | Weaker | 1/8 · FairTrip | -0.37Weak finisher | Steady |
| nap hand | -0.10 · #7Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 rise 2 | L2 same class | L3 rise 2 | -5.9Below field | Stable | Weaker | 2/8 · FairShape | 0.11Finishes well | Steady |
| pure gold | 0.01 · #6Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 1 | -12.9Below field | Declining | Weaker | 3/8 · LiveShape, Trip | -0.13Neutral | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Perth 2m47y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Insufficient evidence · 0 races
Going: Good8 runnersTurfStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E —0 runners
MiddleA/E —0 runners
HighA/E —0 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 8 of 8 experienced runners
Archive coverage
8 of 8 runners
163 earlier WIN races matched
nap hand · pre-off
Steamed 18 · Stable 3 · Drifted 10
31 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
nap hand · in-play support
10%: 16 runs · 52%
25%: 11 runs · 35% · 50%: 4 runs · 13%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| medieval gold | 15 | Average 3.1 Last 1 / 8 | 3.78 | Steamed 7 · Stable 0 · Drifted 7 (14 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 57% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 36% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 36% | Established2026-02-24 · Catterick |
| fidendum | 9 | Average 3.6 Last 1 / 7 | 3.05 | Steamed 3 · Stable 1 · Drifted 5 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 67% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 56% | Established2026-07-05 · Market Rasen |
| the last cloud | 10 | Average 3.2 Last 3 / 10 | 7.35 | Steamed 5 · Stable 1 · Drifted 4 (10 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 30% | Established2026-02-28 · Kelso |
| squeezebox | 26 | Average 4.0 Last 8 / 13 | 32.00 | Steamed 10 · Stable 5 · Drifted 10 (25 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 14 runs · 56% 25% shorter: 12 runs · 48% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 32% | Established2026-07-18 · Market Rasen |
| filibustering | 25 | Average 4.2 Last 5 / 9 | 12.46 | Steamed 11 · Stable 5 · Drifted 7 (23 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 13 runs · 57% 25% shorter: 9 runs · 39% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 22% | Established2026-06-28 · Cartmel |
| scriabin | 12 | Average 5.7 Last 1 / 9 | 2.14 | Steamed 2 · Stable 1 · Drifted 8 (11 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 73% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 64% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 36% | Established2026-07-02 · Perth |
| nap hand | 35 | Average 3.7 Last 4 / 5 | 17.00 | Steamed 18 · Stable 3 · Drifted 10 (31 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 16 runs · 52% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 35% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 13% | Established2026-07-17 · Newbury |
| pure gold | 31 | Average 5.6 Last 2 / 9 | 6.81 | Steamed 11 · Stable 6 · Drifted 13 (30 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 21 runs · 70% 25% shorter: 15 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 23% | Established2026-07-12 · Perth |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
scriabinPressure
fidendumthe last cloudsqueezeboxfilibusteringTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
No reliable signalClosers
medieval goldfidendumthe last cloudnap handRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 6
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 1/1 · D 1/3 · G 0/2
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.42 · Finish 0.31
Connections
Steady
Patrick Neville · Derek Fox
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
15 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.1
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.9
Recent
Improving
Trend 12
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2
Conditions
Weak
C 0/0 · D 0/4 · G 2/6
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.13 · Finish 0.28
Connections
Steady
David Killahena & Graeme Mcpherson · Nick Slatter(3)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
9 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.6
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +12.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 6
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 3/3 · D 3/3 · G 3/4
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.03 · Finish 0.51
Connections
Steady
Patrick Neville · Brian Hughes
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
10 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.2
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 14
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 same class | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 2/3 · G 3/8
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.28 · Finish -0.01
Connections
Steady
Tom Lacey · Stan Sheppard
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
26 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.0
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +12.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 22
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 same class | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 2/6 · G 3/8
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.07 · Finish -0.03
Connections
Hot
Harry Derham · Paul Obrien
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
25 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -6.9
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2
Conditions
Strong
C 1/6 · D 1/9 · G 1/7
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.48 · Finish -0.37
Connections
Steady
Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore · Patrick Wadge
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
12 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.7
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.9
Recent
Stable
Trend 3
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2 | L2 same class | L3 rise 2
Conditions
Weak
C 0/0 · D 0/7 · G 2/13
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.10 · Finish 0.11
Connections
Steady
Chris Gordon · Fern Obrien(5)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
35 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.7
Ability
Below field
OR edge -12.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -6
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 1/9 · D 3/12 · G 2/19
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.01 · Finish -0.13
Connections
Steady
Lisa Harrison · Peter Kavanagh
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
31 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.6
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 47 · Perth
4:40 Perth
Brooks Macdonald Handicap Chase
Forecast reading
Near dead heat at the top
Top-two win-probability separation: 0.00 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history7/7
Usable Official Rating7/7
Informative pace profile7/7
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Near dead heat at the top
1
edgewell
24.9%Win
2
le malin
24.9%Win
Leader separation0.00pp
Race shape
Leader with room
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureModerate
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioEven
CollapseLow
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadermcgregors chargeLikely leader
Pace pressureModerateLeader with room
Top threatle malin4/8 · Ability, Class, Form
Best closercollinghamNeutral
Field abilityshantou showDominant
Race chaosNormal53
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| edgewell | 0.06 · #2Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | +4.3Strong | Declining | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class | -0.22Weak finisher | Steady |
| le malin | -0.22 · #7Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 drop 1 | +6.3Dominant | Improving | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Form | -0.12Neutral | Steady |
| shantou show | -0.17 · #5Hold-up | Waiting ride | L2 same class | +8.3Dominant | Declining | Weaker | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip | -0.30Weak finisher | Steady |
| button rock | -0.22 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 1 | +6.3Dominant | Improving | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Form | -0.50Weak finisher | Steady |
| mcgregors charge | 0.39 · #1Likely leader | Lead with pressure | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | -12.7Below field | Improving | Similar | 3/8 · LiveClass, Form, Trip | -0.14Neutral | Quiet |
| ballydangan | 0.00 · #4Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | -13.7Below field | Improving | Similar | 3/8 · LiveClass, Form, Trip | -0.39Weak finisher | Steady |
| collingham | 0.03 · #3Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +1.3Competitive | Declining | Similar | 1/8 · FairAbility | 0.03Neutral | Quiet |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Perth 2m7f180y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Insufficient evidence · 0 races
Going: Good7 runnersTurfStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E —0 runners
MiddleA/E —0 runners
HighA/E —0 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 7 of 7 experienced runners
Archive coverage
7 of 7 runners
169 earlier WIN races matched
edgewell · pre-off
Steamed 9 · Stable 4 · Drifted 21
34 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
edgewell · in-play support
10%: 18 runs · 53%
25%: 13 runs · 38% · 50%: 10 runs · 29%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| edgewell | 36 | Average 4.4 Last — | — | Steamed 9 · Stable 4 · Drifted 21 (34 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 18 runs · 53% 25% shorter: 13 runs · 38% 50% shorter: 10 runs · 29% | Established2026-07-19 · Newton Abbot |
| le malin | 13 | Average 7.7 Last 3 / 3 | 4.96 | Steamed 7 · Stable 0 · Drifted 3 (10 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 40% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 30% | Established2026-07-20 · Cartmel |
| shantou show | 20 | Average 5.9 Last 9 / 15 | 26.00 | Steamed 9 · Stable 4 · Drifted 4 (17 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 35% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 29% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 24% | Established2026-07-22 · Wexford |
| button rock | 8 | Average 6.4 Last 6 / 6 | 36.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 1 · Drifted 5 (7 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 71% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 57% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 57% | Established2026-07-02 · Perth |
| mcgregors charge | 22 | Average 4.5 Last 5 / 7 | 8.96 | Steamed 9 · Stable 1 · Drifted 10 (20 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 15 runs · 75% 25% shorter: 13 runs · 65% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 40% | Established2026-07-19 · Newton Abbot |
| ballydangan | 35 | Average 7.3 Last 10 / 11 | 70.00 | Steamed 9 · Stable 4 · Drifted 17 (30 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 20 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 14 runs · 47% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 23% | Established2026-03-19 · Sedgefield |
| collingham | 35 | Average 5.0 Last 14 / 14 | 180.00 | Steamed 11 · Stable 8 · Drifted 16 (35 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 19 runs · 54% 25% shorter: 17 runs · 49% 50% shorter: 9 runs · 26% | Established2026-07-24 · Uttoxeter |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
mcgregors chargePressure
No reliable signalTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
button rockClosers
No reliable signalRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.3
Recent
Declining
Trend -20
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 5/18
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.06 · Finish -0.22
Connections
Steady
Nick Scholfield · Harry Reed
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
36 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.4
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +6.3
Recent
Improving
Trend 14
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/2
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.22 · Finish -0.12
Connections
Steady
S Mcparlan · Mr N Mcparlan(3)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
13 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.7
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +8.3
Recent
Declining
Trend -6
Trajectory
Same grade
L2 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/4 · G 0/6
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.17 · Finish -0.30
Connections
Steady
Noel C Kelly · Sean Bowen
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
20 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.9
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +6.3
Recent
Improving
Trend 4
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 1/1 · D 0/0 · G 1/2
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.22 · Finish -0.50
Connections
Steady
Andrew Hamilton · Derek Fox
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
8 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.4
Ability
Below field
OR edge -12.7
Recent
Improving
Trend 4
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 1/1 · D 1/5 · G 1/12
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.39 · Finish -0.14
Connections
Quiet
Polly Gundry · Ben Godfrey
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
22 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -13.7
Recent
Improving
Trend 4
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/1 · D 2/10 · G 0/9
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.00 · Finish -0.39
Connections
Steady
Hugh Burns · Peter Kavanagh
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
35 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.3
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.3
Recent
Declining
Trend -20
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/1 · D 0/1 · G 6/16
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.03 · Finish 0.03
Connections
Quiet
Jake Thomas Coulson · Philip Armson(3)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
35 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 48 · Perth
5:15 Perth
Scone Palace International Horse Trials National Hunt Flat Race (Conditional/Amateur Jockeys') (GBB)
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 12.68 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Limited
26%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history3/4
Usable Official Rating0/4
Informative pace profile0/4
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
downtown nashville
29.4%Win
2
dark tide rising
16.7%Win
Leader separation12.68pp
Race shape
No clear leader
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureLight
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioEven
CollapseLow
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderdowntown nashvilleUnclear
Pace pressureLightNo clear leader
Top threatdowntown nashville0/8 · None
Best closerdowntown nashvilleNeutral
Field abilityUnratedInsufficient OR coverage
Race chaosCompetitive65
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| downtown nashville | 0.00 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| dark tide rising | 0.00 · #2Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Quiet |
| captain mainwaring | 0.00 · #1Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Quiet |
| game shadow | 0.00 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Perth 2m47y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Insufficient evidence · 0 races
Going: Good4 runnersTurfStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E —0 runners
MiddleA/E —0 runners
HighA/E —0 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Partial · 3 of 4 experienced runners
Archive coverage
3 of 4 runners
3 earlier WIN races matched
downtown nashville · pre-off
Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0
1 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
downtown nashville · in-play support
10%: 1 runs · 100%
25%: 1 runs · 100% · 50%: 0 runs · 0%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| downtown nashville | 1 | Average 1.0 Last 1 / 11 | 3.95 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-15 · Uttoxeter |
| dark tide rising | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| captain mainwaring | 1 | Average 4.0 Last 4 / 8 | 13.50 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 100% | Limited2025-11-06 · Ludlow |
| game shadow | 1 | Average 5.0 Last 5 / 11 | 19.15 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-05-29 · Tramore |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
downtown nashvillePressure
No reliable signalTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
downtown nashvilledark tide risingcaptain mainwaringgame shadowClosers
No reliable signalRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Olly Murphy · Lewis Saunders(5)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 1.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Quiet
Tom George · Mr Harry Odwyer(7)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Quiet
Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies · Miss Amber Jackson-Fennell(7)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
John C Mcconnell · Alex Harvey(3)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 49 · Ripon
1:45 Ripon
Juddmonte EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Bands C/D) (EBF Restricted Qualifier) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 20.33 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Limited
41%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history11/13
Usable Official Rating2/13
Informative pace profile4/13
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
coral cove
41.3%Win
2
the first drop
21.0%Win
Leader separation20.33pp
Race shape
Solo lead chance
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureLight
Pace certaintyClear
ScenarioSlow
CollapseLow
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderthe first dropLikely leader
Pace pressureLightSolo lead chance
Top threatcoral cove3/8 · Ability, Yard
Best closercoral coveStrong finisher
Field abilitycoral coveDominant
Race chaosPredictable17
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coral cove | -0.20 · #11Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | +7.0Dominant | Stable | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Yard | 1.00Strong finisher | Hot |
| the first drop | 1.35 · #1Likely leader | May control | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 2 | —Unrated | Declining | Similar | 3/8 · LiveShape, Yard | 0.00Neutral | Hot |
| dees mochafella | 0.00 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| old oak | 0.00 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| temple court | 0.00 · #2Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 3 | L2 rise 2 | L3 same class | -7.0Below field | Stable | Weaker | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| mad jack | 0.00 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| nosey book | -0.35 · #12Hold-up | May need help | L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2 | —Unrated | Stable | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 1.00Strong finisher | Steady |
| tommos queen | 0.00 · #10Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 2 | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| rule of the agency | -0.35 · #13Hold-up | May need help | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | —Unrated | Improving | Similar | 1/8 · FairForm | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| special operations | 0.00 · #9Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | —Unrated | Unclear | Similar | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| bedwyr | 0.00 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2 | —Unrated | Improving | Unknown | 1/8 · FairForm | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| london rose | 0.00 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 2 | —Unrated | Unclear | Weaker | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Quiet |
| scarlet dynasty | 0.00 · #8Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 3 | —Unrated | Stable | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Ripon 1m draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going · all field sizes · 113 races
Going: Good13 runnersTurfStalls: Inside
LowA/E 0.94360 runners
MiddleA/E 0.92276 runners
HighA/E 1.17314 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Partial · 11 of 13 experienced runners
Archive coverage
11 of 13 runners
20 earlier WIN races matched
temple court · pre-off
Steamed 2 · Stable 2 · Drifted 0
4 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
temple court · in-play support
10%: 1 runs · 25%
25%: 1 runs · 25% · 50%: 0 runs · 0%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coral cove | 2 | Average 2.0 Last 1 / 8 | 1.65 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-24 · York |
| the first drop | 2 | Average 4.5 Last 2 / 8 | 4.30 | Steamed 2 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 50% | Limited2026-07-24 · York |
| dees mochafella | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| old oak | 1 | Average 5.0 Last 5 / 18 | 19.72 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-09 · Newbury |
| temple court | 4 | Average 2.2 Last 3 / 10 | 6.40 | Steamed 2 · Stable 2 · Drifted 0 (4 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 25% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 25% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-07-24 · Chepstow |
| mad jack | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| nosey book | 2 | Average 5.5 Last 4 / 5 | 10.50 | Steamed 0 · Stable 1 · Drifted 1 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-31 · Musselburgh |
| tommos queen | 1 | Average 8.0 Last 8 / 14 | 116.16 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-19 · Redcar |
| rule of the agency | 2 | Average 7.5 Last 8 / 8 | 110.00 | Steamed 0 · Stable 1 · Drifted 1 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-24 · York |
| special operations | 1 | Average 5.0 Last 5 / 8 | 85.00 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-24 · York |
| bedwyr | 2 | Average 11.0 Last 13 / 14 | 529.29 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-19 · Redcar |
| london rose | 1 | Average 8.0 Last 8 / 10 | 87.60 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-06-25 · Newcastle |
| scarlet dynasty | 2 | Average 8.0 Last 10 / 11 | 104.97 | Steamed 0 · Stable 1 · Drifted 1 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-22 · Catterick |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
the first dropPressure
No reliable signalTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
coral covedees mochafellaold oaktemple courtmad jacktommos queenspecial operationsbedwyrlondon rosescarlet dynastyClosers
coral covenosey bookRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +7.0
Recent
Stable
Trend 1
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.20 · Finish 1.00
Connections
Hot
James Owen · Jason Hart
Draw
High · A/E 1.17
314 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Declining
Trend -6
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 2
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Likely leader
Front 1.35 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Hot
Adrian Paul Keatley · Mikey Sheehy
Draw
High · A/E 1.17
314 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.5
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Fionn Mcsharry · Daniel Tudhope
Draw
High · A/E 1.17
314 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Richard Hannon · Joe Leavy
Draw
High · A/E 1.17
314 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
Ability
Below field
OR edge -7.0
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 3 | L2 rise 2 | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/2
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Eve Johnson Houghton · Callum Hutchinson
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.92
276 matched runners
Historical market
4 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.2
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Ed De Giles · Jason Watson
Draw
Low · A/E 0.94
360 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend 3
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.35 · Finish 1.00
Connections
Steady
Tim Easterby · Duran Fentiman
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.92
276 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.5
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Michael & David Easterby · Joanna Mason
Draw
Low · A/E 0.94
360 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Improving
Trend 4
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.35 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Tim Easterby · David Allan
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.92
276 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.5
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Tim Easterby · Sean Kirrane
Draw
Low · A/E 0.94
360 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Improving
Trend 5
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood · Oisin Orr
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.92
276 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 11.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Quiet
Ollie Pears · Cam Hardie
Draw
Low · A/E 0.94
360 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 3
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Gemma Tutty · Kaiya Fraser
Draw
Low · A/E 0.94
360 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.0
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 50 · Ripon
2:20 Ripon
Racing For Tamara Ripon Hornblower EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 10.43 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Limited
40%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history5/5
Usable Official Rating0/5
Informative pace profile1/5
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
rogue jewel
25.8%Win
2
does mary know
15.4%Win
Leader separation10.43pp
Race shape
No clear leader
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureLight
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioEven
CollapseLow
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderclassy jaguarHold-up
Pace pressureLightNo clear leader
Top threatrogue jewel0/8 · None
Best closerrogue jewelNeutral
Field abilityUnratedInsufficient OR coverage
Race chaosNormal52
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| rogue jewel | 0.00 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | —Unrated | Unclear | Weak | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| does mary know | 0.00 · #1Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | —Unrated | Unclear | Weak | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| green bay dream | 0.00 · #2Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 2 | —Unrated | Unclear | Weak | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| taj mahal palace | 0.00 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 3 | —Unrated | Unclear | Weak | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Quiet |
| classy jaguar | -0.35 · #5Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 rise 3 | L2 rise 3 | —Unrated | Stable | Weak | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Ripon 6f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 60 races
Going: Good5 runnersTurfStalls: Stands' side
LowA/E 1.17142 runners
MiddleA/E 0.86112 runners
HighA/E 0.91117 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 5 of 5 experienced runners
Archive coverage
5 of 5 runners
5 earlier WIN races matched
rogue jewel · pre-off
Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0
1 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
rogue jewel · in-play support
10%: 1 runs · 100%
25%: 1 runs · 100% · 50%: 1 runs · 100%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| rogue jewel | 1 | Average 5.0 Last 5 / 6 | 11.66 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 100% | Limited2026-07-25 · York |
| does mary know | 1 | Average 8.0 Last 8 / 15 | 46.00 | Steamed 0 · Stable 1 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-28 · Goodwood |
| green bay dream | 1 | Average 6.0 Last 6 / 7 | 55.00 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-27 · Ripon |
| taj mahal palace | 1 | Average 7.0 Last 7 / 7 | 27.54 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-06-27 · Newcastle |
| classy jaguar | 1 | Average 9.0 Last 9 / 13 | 208.39 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 100% | Limited2026-07-28 · Beverley |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
classy jaguarPressure
No reliable signalTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
rogue jeweldoes mary knowgreen bay dreamtaj mahal palaceClosers
No reliable signalRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 1/1 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Edward Bethell · Daniel Tudhope
Draw
Low · A/E 1.17
142 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Eve Johnson Houghton · Callum Hutchinson
Draw
High · A/E 0.91
117 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/1 · D 0/1 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Tim Easterby · David Allan
Draw
Low · A/E 1.17
142 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 3
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Quiet
Brian Ellison · Ben Robinson
Draw
High · A/E 0.91
117 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 3 | L2 rise 3
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.35 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood · David Nolan
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.86
112 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 9.0
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 51 · Ripon
2:55 Ripon
William Hill Supporting MND Silver Cup Handicap
Forecast reading
Competitive top group
Top-two win-probability separation: 2.79 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history20/20
Usable Official Rating20/20
Informative pace profile20/20
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Competitive top group
1
magic boy
11.2%Win
2
roberto caro
8.5%Win
Leader separation2.79pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadermagic boyLikely leader
Pace pressureStrongLeader under pressure
Top threatgo vince go5/8 · Ability, Class, Form, Trip
Best closerroberto caroStrong finisher
Field abilitywestmorianStrong
Race chaosChaotic87
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| magic boy | 0.75 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | +1.2Competitive | Stable | Similar | 2/8 · FairAbility, Trip | -0.04Neutral | Steady |
| roberto caro | 0.08 · #16Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +1.2Competitive | Declining | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip, Yard | 0.29Strong finisher | Hot |
| woodstock | 0.26 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | +1.2Competitive | Stable | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility, Class | -0.24Weak finisher | Steady |
| who wants me | 0.13 · #13Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class | -2.8Below field | Improving | Similar | 3/8 · LiveShape, Form | -0.18Neutral | Steady |
| glory hyde | 0.16 · #11Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | +3.2Strong | Declining | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip | 0.04Late positive | Steady |
| mister sox | 0.14 · #12Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -2.8Below field | Declining | Similar | 1/8 · FairTrip | 0.04Late positive | Steady |
| mythical composer | 0.03 · #17Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +3.2Strong | Declining | Similar | 2/8 · FairAbility | -0.24Weak finisher | Steady |
| dorney lake | -0.07 · #18Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | -1.8Below field | Improving | Weaker | 4/8 · LiveShape, Form, Trip | 0.01Neutral | Steady |
| go vince go | 0.24 · #7Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 drop 2 | L3 drop 2 | +3.2Strong | Improving | Similar | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Form, Trip | -0.21Weak finisher | Steady |
| roach power | 0.41 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 2 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 2 | +4.2Strong | Declining | Stronger | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Trip, Yard | -0.10Neutral | Hot |
| kats bob | 0.31 · #4Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +2.2Competitive | Declining | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility, Trip | 0.14Finishes well | Steady |
| beyond borders | 0.11 · #14Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | -3.8Below field | Improving | Similar | 2/8 · FairForm, Trip | 0.16Finishes well | Steady |
| emperor caradoc | 0.27 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | -0.8Below field | Declining | Similar | 1/8 · FairTrip | 0.18Finishes well | Quiet |
| westmorian | 0.23 · #8Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class | +5.2Strong | Declining | Similar | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Trip, Yard | -0.09Neutral | Hot |
| grant wood | 0.10 · #15Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | +2.2Competitive | Declining | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Trip | -0.05Neutral | Quiet |
| marks choice | 0.20 · #9Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | -7.8Below field | Stable | Weaker | 1/8 · FairTrip | 0.19Finishes well | Steady |
| anaisa | 0.33 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +3.2Strong | Declining | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Trip | 0.03Neutral | Steady |
| vince lamour | 0.18 · #10Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | -2.8Below field | Improving | Similar | 2/8 · FairForm, Trip | -0.31Weak finisher | Steady |
| tolstoy | -0.10 · #20Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -2.8Below field | Declining | Similar | 3/8 · LiveShape, Trip | 0.11Finishes well | Quiet |
| educating rita | -0.09 · #19Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | -4.8Below field | Stable | Similar | 1/8 · FairTrip | 0.13Finishes well | Quiet |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Ripon 6f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 44 races
Going: Good20 runnersTurfStalls: Stands' side
LowA/E 0.88222 runners
MiddleA/E 1.32194 runners
HighA/E 0.85206 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 20 of 20 experienced runners
Archive coverage
20 of 20 runners
759 earlier WIN races matched
kats bob · pre-off
Steamed 16 · Stable 10 · Drifted 52
78 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
kats bob · in-play support
10%: 34 runs · 44%
25%: 26 runs · 33% · 50%: 16 runs · 21%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| magic boy | 15 | Average 4.1 Last 1 / 21 | 4.10 | Steamed 7 · Stable 1 · Drifted 4 (12 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 42% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 25% | Established2026-07-24 · York |
| roberto caro | 23 | Average 6.0 Last 10 / 17 | 32.00 | Steamed 8 · Stable 3 · Drifted 12 (23 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 10 runs · 43% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 30% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 17% | Established2026-07-25 · York |
| woodstock | 41 | Average 4.8 Last 4 / 15 | 14.00 | Steamed 17 · Stable 6 · Drifted 17 (40 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 21 runs · 52% 25% shorter: 14 runs · 35% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 18% | Established2026-08-01 · Thirsk |
| who wants me | 18 | Average 7.8 Last 9 / 21 | 33.22 | Steamed 7 · Stable 5 · Drifted 6 (18 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 9 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 8 runs · 44% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 28% | Established2026-07-24 · York |
| glory hyde | 37 | Average 4.4 Last 8 / 21 | 32.00 | Steamed 20 · Stable 4 · Drifted 13 (37 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 13 runs · 35% 25% shorter: 12 runs · 32% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 22% | Established2026-07-24 · York |
| mister sox | 48 | Average 5.4 Last 2 / 8 | 5.49 | Steamed 28 · Stable 11 · Drifted 9 (48 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 18 runs · 38% 25% shorter: 12 runs · 25% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 17% | Established2026-08-05 · Pontefract |
| mythical composer | 19 | Average 4.1 Last 17 / 26 | 50.00 | Steamed 7 · Stable 3 · Drifted 7 (17 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 24% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 24% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 24% | Established2026-07-29 · Goodwood |
| dorney lake | 32 | Average 4.8 Last 1 / 9 | 6.11 | Steamed 11 · Stable 4 · Drifted 15 (30 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 10 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 23% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 20% | Established2026-08-06 · Southwell |
| go vince go | 17 | Average 6.7 Last 3 / 12 | 6.40 | Steamed 10 · Stable 3 · Drifted 4 (17 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 9 runs · 53% 25% shorter: 9 runs · 53% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 24% | Established2026-07-24 · York |
| roach power | 51 | Average 4.8 Last — | — | Steamed 21 · Stable 7 · Drifted 18 (46 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 19 runs · 41% 25% shorter: 14 runs · 30% 50% shorter: 10 runs · 22% | Established2026-06-24 · Ffos Las |
| kats bob | 89 | Average 5.6 Last 2 / 7 | 4.20 | Steamed 16 · Stable 10 · Drifted 52 (78 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 34 runs · 44% 25% shorter: 26 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 16 runs · 21% | Established2026-07-29 · Redcar |
| beyond borders | 31 | Average 6.8 Last 7 / 12 | 14.67 | Steamed 11 · Stable 4 · Drifted 15 (30 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 13 runs · 43% 25% shorter: 9 runs · 30% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 20% | Established2026-07-27 · Southwell |
| emperor caradoc | 47 | Average 5.3 Last 7 / 8 | 21.87 | Steamed 11 · Stable 10 · Drifted 23 (44 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 18 runs · 41% 25% shorter: 12 runs · 27% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 18% | Established2026-08-05 · Pontefract |
| westmorian | 41 | Average 4.9 Last 3 / 8 | 5.80 | Steamed 16 · Stable 6 · Drifted 15 (37 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 18 runs · 49% 25% shorter: 12 runs · 32% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 22% | Established2026-07-18 · Newmarket |
| grant wood | 40 | Average 6.8 Last 4 / 7 | 9.43 | Steamed 15 · Stable 4 · Drifted 19 (38 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 14 runs · 37% 25% shorter: 10 runs · 26% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 21% | Established2026-08-03 · Ripon |
| marks choice | 72 | Average 5.8 Last 7 / 8 | 26.47 | Steamed 28 · Stable 9 · Drifted 34 (71 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 35 runs · 49% 25% shorter: 29 runs · 41% 50% shorter: 16 runs · 23% | Established2026-08-01 · Doncaster |
| anaisa | 16 | Average 7.2 Last 8 / 12 | 34.00 | Steamed 3 · Stable 4 · Drifted 8 (15 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 53% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 40% | Established2026-07-24 · York |
| vince lamour | 44 | Average 7.0 Last 4 / 6 | 12.50 | Steamed 16 · Stable 12 · Drifted 14 (42 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 15 runs · 36% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 26% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 14% | Established2026-08-07 · Thirsk |
| tolstoy | 59 | Average 6.4 Last 15 / 21 | 51.93 | Steamed 27 · Stable 7 · Drifted 22 (56 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 14 runs · 25% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 20% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 12% | Established2026-07-24 · York |
| educating rita | 19 | Average 6.5 Last 20 / 21 | 144.39 | Steamed 7 · Stable 5 · Drifted 6 (18 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 44% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 39% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 17% | Established2026-07-24 · York |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
magic boyPressure
go vince goroach powerkats bobwestmoriananaisaTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
roberto carowoodstockglory hydemister soxmythical composerbeyond bordersemperor caradocgrant woodmarks choicevince lamoureducating ritaClosers
roberto carokats bobbeyond bordersemperor caradocmarks choicetolstoyeducating ritaRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.2
Recent
Stable
Trend -4
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/2 · D 1/6 · G 1/7
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.75 · Finish -0.04
Connections
Steady
Nigel Tinkler · Alex Jary(3)
Draw
High · A/E 0.85
206 matched runners
Historical market
15 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.1
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -20
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/1 · D 3/15 · G 1/5
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.08 · Finish 0.29
Connections
Hot
Adrian Paul Keatley · Mikey Sheehy
Draw
High · A/E 0.85
206 matched runners
Historical market
23 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.0
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.2
Recent
Stable
Trend -2
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/2 · D 0/3 · G 1/15
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.26 · Finish -0.24
Connections
Steady
Ruth Carr · Oisin Orr
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.32
194 matched runners
Historical market
41 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -2.8
Recent
Improving
Trend 10
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Weak
C 0/0 · D 0/6 · G 1/7
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.13 · Finish -0.18
Connections
Steady
Iain Jardine · Andrew Mullen
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.32
194 matched runners
Historical market
18 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.8
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -13
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 2/4 · D 4/18 · G 3/11
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.16 · Finish 0.04
Connections
Steady
Roger Fell · Joanna Mason
Draw
High · A/E 0.85
206 matched runners
Historical market
37 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.4
Ability
Below field
OR edge -2.8
Recent
Declining
Trend -14
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 2/8 · D 5/25 · G 4/13
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.14 · Finish 0.04
Connections
Steady
Tim Easterby · Sean Kirrane
Draw
Low · A/E 0.88
222 matched runners
Historical market
48 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.4
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -29
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Weak
C 0/0 · D 0/9 · G 0/5
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.03 · Finish -0.24
Connections
Steady
Clive Cox · Jack Nicholls(3)
Draw
High · A/E 0.85
206 matched runners
Historical market
19 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.1
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.8
Recent
Improving
Trend 11
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 5/22 · G 2/5
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.07 · Finish 0.01
Connections
Steady
Liam Bailey · Billy Garritty
Draw
High · A/E 0.85
206 matched runners
Historical market
32 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.8
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.2
Recent
Improving
Trend 10
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 2 | L3 drop 2
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 2/11 · G 1/7
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.24 · Finish -0.21
Connections
Steady
Tim Easterby · David Allan
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.32
194 matched runners
Historical market
17 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.7
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -28
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 drop 2 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 2
Conditions
Strong
C 1/2 · D 1/20 · G 3/14
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.41 · Finish -0.10
Connections
Hot
Michael Wigham · J F Egan
Draw
High · A/E 0.85
206 matched runners
Historical market
51 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.8
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -11
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/5 · D 10/61 · G 1/16
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.31 · Finish 0.14
Connections
Steady
Ruth Carr · William Pyle
Draw
Low · A/E 0.88
222 matched runners
Historical market
89 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -3.8
Recent
Improving
Trend 16
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/4 · D 6/28 · G 1/12
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.11 · Finish 0.16
Connections
Steady
Gemma Tutty · Kaiya Fraser
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.32
194 matched runners
Historical market
31 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.8
Recent
Declining
Trend -12
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/2 · D 4/24 · G 0/13
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.27 · Finish 0.18
Connections
Quiet
Paul Midgley · David Nolan
Draw
Low · A/E 0.88
222 matched runners
Historical market
47 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.3
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -16
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/2 · D 5/31 · G 0/7
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.23 · Finish -0.09
Connections
Hot
Grant Tuer · Oliver Stammers
Draw
Low · A/E 0.88
222 matched runners
Historical market
41 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.9
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -34
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 1/6 · D 5/29 · G 1/12
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.10 · Finish -0.05
Connections
Quiet
Paul Midgley · Jason Hart
Draw
Low · A/E 0.88
222 matched runners
Historical market
40 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -7.8
Recent
Stable
Trend -0
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 8/25 · D 7/47 · G 6/25
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.20 · Finish 0.19
Connections
Steady
Gemma Tutty · Jason Watson
Draw
High · A/E 0.85
206 matched runners
Historical market
72 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.8
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.2
Recent
Declining
Trend -9
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 1/3 · D 1/12 · G 2/7
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.33 · Finish 0.03
Connections
Steady
Tim Easterby · James Sullivan
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.32
194 matched runners
Historical market
16 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -2.8
Recent
Improving
Trend 15
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 2/7 · D 1/7 · G 2/21
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.18 · Finish -0.31
Connections
Steady
Tim Easterby · Duran Fentiman
Draw
Low · A/E 0.88
222 matched runners
Historical market
44 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.0
Ability
Below field
OR edge -2.8
Recent
Declining
Trend -5
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 4/27 · G 1/7
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.10 · Finish 0.11
Connections
Quiet
Brian Ellison · Ben Robinson
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.32
194 matched runners
Historical market
59 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.4
Ability
Below field
OR edge -4.8
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/9 · G 1/7
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.09 · Finish 0.13
Connections
Quiet
Philip Kirby · Cam Hardie
Draw
Low · A/E 0.88
222 matched runners
Historical market
19 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.5
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 52 · Ripon
3:25 Ripon
William Hill/MND Association Great St Wilfrid Handicap
Forecast reading
Near dead heat at the top
Top-two win-probability separation: 0.48 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history15/15
Usable Official Rating15/15
Informative pace profile15/15
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Near dead heat at the top
1
flight control
11.7%Win
2
dark cloud rising
11.2%Win
Leader separation0.48pp
Race shape
Front end contested
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Negative
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderim nextPossible leader
Pace pressureStrongFront end contested
Top threataramram5/8 · Ability, Class, Form, Trip
Best closerflight controlStrong finisher
Field abilityaramramDominant
Race chaosCompetitive77
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| flight control | -0.23 · #15Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2 | -1.9Below field | Stable | Weaker | 1/8 · FairTrip | 0.66Strong finisher | Steady |
| dark cloud rising | 0.25 · #11Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | +3.1Strong | Declining | Weaker | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip | -0.08Neutral | Steady |
| lord roxby | 0.25 · #12Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | -0.9Below field | Improving | Weaker | 2/8 · FairForm, Trip | 0.02Neutral | Steady |
| aramram | 0.33 · #7Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +18.1Dominant | Improving | Stronger | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Form, Trip | 0.34Strong finisher | Steady |
| royal zabeel | 0.46 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +13.1Dominant | Improving | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Trip | 0.09Late positive | Steady |
| fortification | 0.13 · #13Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -1.9Below field | Improving | Weaker | 1/8 · FairForm | 0.10Finishes well | Quiet |
| musical touch | -0.10 · #14Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2 | -2.9Below field | Declining | Similar | 1/8 · FairTrip | 0.35Strong finisher | Steady |
| im next | 0.50 · #1Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 1 | -1.9Below field | Declining | Similar | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.01Neutral | Steady |
| khafiz | 0.42 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | +0.1Competitive | Declining | Similar | 1/8 · FairAbility | -0.37Weak finisher | Steady |
| kodiac thriller | 0.34 · #6Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2 | -5.9Below field | Declining | Weaker | 1/8 · FairTrip | -0.06Neutral | Steady |
| fast track harry | 0.27 · #10Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | +4.1Strong | Declining | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip | -0.14Neutral | Steady |
| it just takes time | 0.40 · #4Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2 | -5.9Below field | Declining | Weaker | 1/8 · FairTrip | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| brighton boy | 0.29 · #9Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | -5.9Below field | Improving | Weaker | 2/8 · FairForm, Trip | 0.14Finishes well | Steady |
| eye of dubai | 0.31 · #8Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | -5.9Below field | Stable | Weaker | 1/8 · FairTrip | -0.02Neutral | Steady |
| manila scouse | 0.34 · #5Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2 | -5.9Below field | Improving | Similar | 2/8 · FairForm, Trip | -0.14Neutral | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Ripon 6f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 44 races
Going: Good15 runnersTurfStalls: Stands' side
LowA/E 0.88222 runners
MiddleA/E 1.32194 runners
HighA/E 0.85206 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 15 of 15 experienced runners
Archive coverage
15 of 15 runners
394 earlier WIN races matched
it just takes time · pre-off
Steamed 39 · Stable 3 · Drifted 30
72 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
it just takes time · in-play support
10%: 34 runs · 47%
25%: 27 runs · 38% · 50%: 19 runs · 26%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| flight control | 8 | Average 7.2 Last 1 / 12 | 4.90 | Steamed 1 · Stable 1 · Drifted 6 (8 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 75% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 62% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 50% | Established2026-07-25 · York |
| dark cloud rising | 25 | Average 4.8 Last 1 / 7 | 3.26 | Steamed 9 · Stable 4 · Drifted 10 (23 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 12 runs · 52% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 30% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 26% | Established2026-08-03 · Ripon |
| lord roxby | 26 | Average 4.5 Last 2 / 7 | 4.51 | Steamed 12 · Stable 4 · Drifted 7 (23 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 35% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 26% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 22% | Established2026-08-03 · Ripon |
| aramram | 28 | Average 3.7 Last 18 / 18 | 170.00 | Steamed 14 · Stable 2 · Drifted 10 (26 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 15 runs · 58% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 42% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 23% | Established2026-06-20 · Royal Ascot |
| royal zabeel | 26 | Average 5.6 Last 5 / 13 | 10.50 | Steamed 12 · Stable 3 · Drifted 8 (23 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 13 runs · 57% 25% shorter: 10 runs · 43% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 30% | Established2026-07-11 · Newmarket |
| fortification | 10 | Average 3.8 Last 2 / 13 | 4.88 | Steamed 7 · Stable 1 · Drifted 2 (10 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 40% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 20% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 10% | Established2026-06-27 · York |
| musical touch | 19 | Average 3.8 Last 12 / 21 | 50.00 | Steamed 8 · Stable 4 · Drifted 7 (19 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 32% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 32% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 21% | Established2026-07-25 · York |
| im next | 22 | Average 5.5 Last 2 / 7 | 4.10 | Steamed 8 · Stable 6 · Drifted 7 (21 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 14 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 13 runs · 62% 50% shorter: 9 runs · 43% | Established2026-07-17 · Pontefract |
| khafiz | 10 | Average 5.6 Last 3 / 10 | 8.20 | Steamed 4 · Stable 0 · Drifted 6 (10 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 40% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 30% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 30% | Established2026-08-02 · Chester |
| kodiac thriller | 30 | Average 5.4 Last 6 / 17 | 14.11 | Steamed 8 · Stable 6 · Drifted 15 (29 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 10 runs · 34% 25% shorter: 8 runs · 28% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 21% | Established2026-07-25 · York |
| fast track harry | 13 | Average 4.0 Last 4 / 11 | 7.61 | Steamed 7 · Stable 3 · Drifted 3 (13 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 62% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 31% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 23% | Established2026-07-10 · Ascot |
| it just takes time | 76 | Average 6.6 Last 6 / 15 | 17.35 | Steamed 39 · Stable 3 · Drifted 30 (72 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 34 runs · 47% 25% shorter: 27 runs · 38% 50% shorter: 19 runs · 26% | Established2026-08-01 · Thirsk |
| brighton boy | 21 | Average 6.2 Last 8 / 15 | 24.00 | Steamed 9 · Stable 3 · Drifted 8 (20 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 13 runs · 65% 25% shorter: 9 runs · 45% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 20% | Established2026-08-01 · Thirsk |
| eye of dubai | 28 | Average 4.6 Last 8 / 8 | 19.04 | Steamed 8 · Stable 5 · Drifted 14 (27 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 10 runs · 37% 25% shorter: 8 runs · 30% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 19% | Established2026-06-25 · Hamilton |
| manila scouse | 52 | Average 5.8 Last 4 / 11 | 9.03 | Steamed 18 · Stable 6 · Drifted 24 (48 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 20 runs · 42% 25% shorter: 16 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 13 runs · 27% | Established2026-08-01 · Hamilton |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
im nextPressure
aramramroyal zabeelfortificationim nextkhafizkodiac thrillerit just takes timebrighton boymanila scouseTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
flight controldark cloud risinglord roxbymusical touchfast track harryeye of dubaiClosers
flight controlaramramroyal zabeelfortificationmusical touchbrighton boyRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.9
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/2 · G 0/2
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.23 · Finish 0.66
Connections
Steady
Kevin & Lauren Frost · William Pyle
Draw
High · A/E 0.85
206 matched runners
Historical market
8 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.2
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -6
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 1/2 · D 4/19 · G 3/10
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.25 · Finish -0.08
Connections
Steady
David Omeara · Daniel Tudhope
Draw
High · A/E 0.85
206 matched runners
Historical market
25 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.9
Recent
Improving
Trend 16
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 1/2 · D 3/16 · G 3/9
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.25 · Finish 0.02
Connections
Steady
Nigel Tinkler · Alex Jary(3)
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.32
194 matched runners
Historical market
26 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.5
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +18.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 8
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/1 · D 6/23 · G 1/8
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.33 · Finish 0.34
Connections
Steady
Richard Hannon · Joe Leavy
Draw
Low · A/E 0.88
222 matched runners
Historical market
28 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.7
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +13.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 36
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 2/8 · G 1/6
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.46 · Finish 0.09
Connections
Steady
Michael Appleby · Jason Watson
Draw
Low · A/E 0.88
222 matched runners
Historical market
26 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.9
Recent
Improving
Trend 5
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/1 · G 1/5
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.13 · Finish 0.10
Connections
Quiet
Brian Ellison · Tom Kiely-Marshall(5)
Draw
High · A/E 0.85
206 matched runners
Historical market
10 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -2.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -26
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 same class | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2
Conditions
Strong
C 0/1 · D 4/17 · G 2/5
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.10 · Finish 0.35
Connections
Steady
Richard & Peter Fahey · Warren Fentiman(3)
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.32
194 matched runners
Historical market
19 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -1.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -30
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/1 · G 2/9
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.50 · Finish 0.01
Connections
Steady
Tim Easterby · J F Egan
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.32
194 matched runners
Historical market
22 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.5
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -4
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 1/4
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.42 · Finish -0.37
Connections
Steady
Roger Fell · Harry Davies
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.32
194 matched runners
Historical market
10 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -12
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 2 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2
Conditions
Strong
C 1/4 · D 1/17 · G 0/13
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.34 · Finish -0.06
Connections
Steady
Mark Walford · Cam Hardie
Draw
High · A/E 0.85
206 matched runners
Historical market
30 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.4
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -16
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 4/13 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.27 · Finish -0.14
Connections
Steady
Clive Cox · Jack Nicholls(3)
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.32
194 matched runners
Historical market
13 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.0
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -16
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2
Conditions
Strong
C 1/9 · D 5/37 · G 3/19
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.40 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Mark Walford · Andrew Mullen
Draw
Low · A/E 0.88
222 matched runners
Historical market
76 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.9
Recent
Improving
Trend 18
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 2/7 · G 1/9
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.29 · Finish 0.14
Connections
Steady
Tim Easterby · Amie Waugh(3)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.88
222 matched runners
Historical market
21 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.9
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 2/3 · D 3/24 · G 1/8
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.31 · Finish -0.02
Connections
Steady
John & Sean Quinn · James Sullivan
Draw
Low · A/E 0.88
222 matched runners
Historical market
28 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.9
Recent
Improving
Trend 12
Trajectory
Up sharply
L1 same class | L2 rise 2 | L3 rise 2
Conditions
Strong
C 0/5 · D 3/22 · G 3/19
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.34 · Finish -0.14
Connections
Steady
Tim Easterby · Duran Fentiman
Draw
High · A/E 0.85
206 matched runners
Historical market
52 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.8
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 53 · Ripon
3:55 Ripon
William Hill World Free From MND Handicap
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 3.59 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history11/11
Usable Official Rating11/11
Informative pace profile11/11
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
murashah
25.8%Win
2
best rate
22.2%Win
Leader separation3.59pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Positive
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadergarden oasisLikely leader
Pace pressureStrongLeader under pressure
Top threatbest rate6/8 · Ability, Shape, Form, Trip
Best closermurashahStrong finisher
Field abilitybest rateDominant
Race chaosCompetitive78
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| murashah | 0.06 · #9Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +6.5Dominant | Improving | Similar | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Shape, Form | 0.57Strong finisher | Steady |
| best rate | 0.09 · #7Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +7.5Dominant | Improving | Similar | 6/8 · StrongAbility, Shape, Form, Trip | 0.46Strong finisher | Steady |
| swiped | 0.17 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1 | +4.5Strong | Improving | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Trip | 0.06Late positive | Steady |
| andesite | -0.12 · #11Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +2.5Competitive | Declining | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Shape | -0.00Neutral | Steady |
| high point | 0.51 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -0.5Below field | Declining | Similar | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.03Neutral | Steady |
| his finest hour | 0.22 · #5Prominent | Stalking hot pace | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -8.5Below field | Stable | Weaker | 2/8 · FairShape | -0.00Neutral | Steady |
| jungle ruler | 0.29 · #4Prominent | Stalking hot pace | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 2 | +5.5Strong | Stable | Similar | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Shape | -0.04Neutral | Steady |
| garden oasis | 0.68 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | -8.5Below field | Improving | Weaker | 2/8 · FairForm, Trip | -0.18Weak finisher | Steady |
| advance twentyfive | 0.07 · #8Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | +2.5Competitive | Improving | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Form | -0.37Weak finisher | Steady |
| capital guarantee | 0.38 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class | -0.5Below field | Improving | Weaker | 2/8 · FairForm, Trip | -0.27Weak finisher | Steady |
| barley | -0.08 · #10Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1 | -10.5Below field | Improving | Weaker | 2/8 · FairForm, Trip | -0.09Neutral | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Ripon 1m draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 49 races
Going: Good11 runnersTurfStalls: Inside
LowA/E 0.87168 runners
MiddleA/E 0.89126 runners
HighA/E 1.29156 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 11 of 11 experienced runners
Archive coverage
11 of 11 runners
303 earlier WIN races matched
garden oasis · pre-off
Steamed 27 · Stable 14 · Drifted 45
86 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
garden oasis · in-play support
10%: 48 runs · 56%
25%: 37 runs · 43% · 50%: 18 runs · 21%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| murashah | 6 | Average 1.6 Last 1 / 13 | 3.50 | Steamed 2 · Stable 1 · Drifted 2 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 40% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 40% | Established2026-04-18 · Thirsk |
| best rate | 27 | Average 3.7 Last 2 / 5 | 3.50 | Steamed 7 · Stable 2 · Drifted 14 (23 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 12 runs · 52% 25% shorter: 8 runs · 35% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 26% | Established2026-07-29 · Sandown |
| swiped | 9 | Average 2.4 Last 2 / 6 | 6.00 | Steamed 2 · Stable 1 · Drifted 5 (8 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 50% | Established2026-07-24 · Sandown |
| andesite | 19 | Average 7.2 Last 5 / 15 | 17.00 | Steamed 3 · Stable 6 · Drifted 7 (16 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 25% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 19% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 6% | Established2026-08-01 · Thirsk |
| high point | 26 | Average 5.2 Last 4 / 10 | 7.80 | Steamed 8 · Stable 1 · Drifted 11 (20 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 10 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 8 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 25% | Established2026-08-01 · Hamilton |
| his finest hour | 13 | Average 4.1 Last 5 / 5 | 18.00 | Steamed 5 · Stable 3 · Drifted 4 (12 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 7 runs · 58% 25% shorter: 5 runs · 42% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 17% | Established2026-08-03 · Ripon |
| jungle ruler | 8 | Average 4.6 Last 1 / 5 | 3.14 | Steamed 4 · Stable 3 · Drifted 1 (8 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 57% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 43% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 14% | Established2026-07-29 · Sandown |
| garden oasis | 87 | Average 6.1 Last 1 / 6 | 2.24 | Steamed 27 · Stable 14 · Drifted 45 (86 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 48 runs · 56% 25% shorter: 37 runs · 43% 50% shorter: 18 runs · 21% | Established2026-08-05 · Pontefract |
| advance twentyfive | 11 | Average 7.5 Last 7 / 9 | 27.97 | Steamed 4 · Stable 3 · Drifted 4 (11 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 73% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 55% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 18% | Established2026-07-11 · Chester |
| capital guarantee | 43 | Average 5.8 Last 4 / 6 | 10.00 | Steamed 21 · Stable 5 · Drifted 12 (38 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 20 runs · 53% 25% shorter: 15 runs · 39% 50% shorter: 12 runs · 32% | Established2026-07-16 · Thirsk |
| barley | 54 | Average 6.3 Last 12 / 15 | 38.00 | Steamed 17 · Stable 8 · Drifted 27 (52 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 25 runs · 48% 25% shorter: 19 runs · 37% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 13% | Established2026-07-25 · York |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
garden oasisPressure
high pointcapital guaranteeTracking
his finest hourjungle rulerMidfield
swipedadvance twentyfivebarleyClosers
murashahbest rateswipedRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +6.5
Recent
Improving
Trend 8
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 2/2
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.06 · Finish 0.57
Connections
Steady
Edward Bethell · Oisin Orr
Draw
High · A/E 1.29
156 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 1.6
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +7.5
Recent
Improving
Trend 5
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 2/9 · G 0/3
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.09 · Finish 0.46
Connections
Steady
Richard Hannon · Joe Leavy
Draw
Low · A/E 0.87
168 matched runners
Historical market
27 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.7
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.5
Recent
Improving
Trend 8
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 2/3 · G 1/2
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.17 · Finish 0.06
Connections
Steady
Ralph Beckett · Rhys Clutterbuck
Draw
Low · A/E 0.87
168 matched runners
Historical market
9 runs
Avg BSP rank 2.4
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.5
Recent
Declining
Trend -17
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 1/8
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.12 · Finish -0.00
Connections
Steady
Roger Fell · Jason Watson
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.89
126 matched runners
Historical market
19 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.5
Recent
Declining
Trend -11
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/1 · D 0/3 · G 1/5
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.51 · Finish -0.03
Connections
Steady
Iain Jardine · Andrew Mullen
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.89
126 matched runners
Historical market
26 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -8.5
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Prominent
Front 0.22 · Finish -0.00
Connections
Steady
Tina Jackson · Joanna Mason
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.89
126 matched runners
Historical market
13 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.1
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.5
Recent
Stable
Trend -2
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 2
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/0
Pace
Prominent
Front 0.29 · Finish -0.04
Connections
Steady
Michael Appleby · Harry Davies
Draw
High · A/E 1.29
156 matched runners
Historical market
8 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.6
Ability
Below field
OR edge -8.5
Recent
Improving
Trend 12
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 7/29 · D 13/66 · G 7/34
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.68 · Finish -0.18
Connections
Steady
Tim Easterby · David Allan
Draw
High · A/E 1.29
156 matched runners
Historical market
87 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.1
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.5
Recent
Improving
Trend 9
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 1/7
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.07 · Finish -0.37
Connections
Steady
Richard & Peter Fahey · Harry Russell
Draw
Low · A/E 0.87
168 matched runners
Historical market
11 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.5
Recent
Improving
Trend 25
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 rise 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 1/2 · D 3/8 · G 3/13
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.38 · Finish -0.27
Connections
Steady
David Omeara · Mark Winn
Draw
High · A/E 1.29
156 matched runners
Historical market
43 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -10.5
Recent
Improving
Trend 10
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 rise 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/6 · D 2/38 · G 0/19
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.08 · Finish -0.09
Connections
Steady
Tim Easterby · Sean Kirrane
Draw
Low · A/E 0.87
168 matched runners
Historical market
54 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.3
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 54 · Ripon
4:30 Ripon
Ashley Smith Memorial William Hill Fillies' Handicap
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 13.03 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history5/5
Usable Official Rating5/5
Informative pace profile5/5
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
clocker
34.0%Win
2
musical accord
21.0%Win
Leader separation13.03pp
Race shape
No clear leader
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureLight
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioEven
CollapseLow
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderblue tulipUnclear
Pace pressureLightNo clear leader
Top threatmusical accord3/8 · Ability, Class
Best closerskirt aroundFinishes well
Field abilitymusical accordDominant
Race chaosCompetitive62
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| clocker | -0.05 · #2Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | +1.0Competitive | Improving | Similar | 2/8 · FairAbility, Form | -0.24Weak finisher | Steady |
| musical accord | -0.35 · #5Hold-up | Waiting ride | L1 drop 2 | L2 drop 2 | L3 drop 2 | +6.0Dominant | Stable | Unknown | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class | -0.35Weak finisher | Steady |
| talitha rouge | -0.25 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 drop 2 | L3 drop 2 | +3.0Strong | Stable | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class | 0.07Late positive | Steady |
| blue tulip | -0.01 · #1Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 drop 1 | -5.0Below field | Improving | Weaker | 3/8 · LiveClass, Form, Trip | -0.60Weak finisher | Steady |
| skirt around | -0.14 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 drop 2 | -5.0Below field | Improving | Similar | 2/8 · FairClass, Form | 0.12Finishes well | Quiet |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Ripon 1m4f10y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going + field band · 56 races
Going: Good5 runnersTurfStalls: Centre
LowA/E 1.01132 runners
MiddleA/E 0.8890 runners
HighA/E 1.13102 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 5 of 5 experienced runners
Archive coverage
5 of 5 runners
26 earlier WIN races matched
clocker · pre-off
Steamed 2 · Stable 0 · Drifted 4
6 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
clocker · in-play support
10%: 2 runs · 33%
25%: 2 runs · 33% · 50%: 1 runs · 17%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| clocker | 7 | Average 3.7 Last 1 / 4 | 2.08 | Steamed 2 · Stable 0 · Drifted 4 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 33% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 17% | Established2026-07-29 · Leicester |
| musical accord | 4 | Average 4.0 Last — | — | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (3 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-07-22 · Leicester |
| talitha rouge | 4 | Average 3.0 Last 2 / 7 | 4.61 | Steamed 2 · Stable 1 · Drifted 1 (4 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 75% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 25% | Descriptive2026-07-23 · Sandown |
| blue tulip | 5 | Average 7.4 Last 7 / 12 | 21.02 | Steamed 4 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 60% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 40% | Descriptive2026-07-30 · Wolverhampton |
| skirt around | 6 | Average 5.6 Last — | — | Steamed 0 · Stable 2 · Drifted 3 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 40% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 20% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 20% | Established2026-07-19 · Redcar |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
blue tulipPressure
No reliable signalTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
talitha rougeblue tulipskirt aroundClosers
talitha rougeskirt aroundRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 16
Trajectory
Up in grade
L1 rise 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 1/2
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.05 · Finish -0.24
Connections
Steady
Edward Bethell · Oisin Orr
Draw
Low · A/E 1.01
132 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.7
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +6.0
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 drop 2 | L2 drop 2 | L3 drop 2
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.35 · Finish -0.35
Connections
Steady
Ralph Beckett · Rhys Clutterbuck
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.88
90 matched runners
Historical market
4 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.0
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.0
Recent
Stable
Trend -3
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 2 | L3 drop 2
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/2
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.25 · Finish 0.07
Connections
Steady
David Omeara · Daniel Tudhope
Draw
Low · A/E 1.01
132 matched runners
Historical market
4 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.0
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 4
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/2 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.01 · Finish -0.60
Connections
Steady
William Muir & Chris Grassick · Jason Watson
Draw
High · A/E 1.13
102 matched runners
Historical market
5 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.4
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.0
Recent
Improving
Trend 6
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 rise 1 | L2 rise 1 | L3 drop 2
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.14 · Finish 0.12
Connections
Quiet
Philip Kirby · Jack Nicholls(3)
Draw
High · A/E 1.13
102 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.6
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 55 · Ripon
5:05 Ripon
Harrogate Comedy Festival Coming This Autumn Handicap
Forecast reading
Competitive top group
Top-two win-probability separation: 2.01 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
83%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history14/14
Usable Official Rating14/14
Informative pace profile13/14
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Competitive top group
1
saxon grace
19.5%Win
2
woodleigh
17.5%Win
Leader separation2.01pp
Race shape
Narrow pace edge
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureModerate
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderdaring leaderUnclear
Pace pressureModerateNarrow pace edge
Top threatfeliz navidad5/8 · Ability, Class, Shape
Best closerwoodleighFinishes well
Field abilitysaxon graceDominant
Race chaosCompetitive69
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| saxon grace | 0.13 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +8.9Dominant | Improving | Weaker | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Yard | -0.14Neutral | Hot |
| woodleigh | 0.00 · #8Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | +1.9Competitive | Declining | Similar | 2/8 · FairAbility, Trip | 0.15Finishes well | Steady |
| feliz navidad | -0.45 · #14Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 drop 2 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1 | +3.9Strong | Stable | Stronger | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Shape | -0.75Weak finisher | Steady |
| riddikulus | -0.07 · #11Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -2.1Below field | Stable | Similar | 2/8 · FairTrip, Yard | -0.26Weak finisher | Hot |
| sunny orange | -0.04 · #10Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class | +3.9Strong | Improving | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Form | 0.04Late positive | Steady |
| daring leader | 0.24 · #1Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -0.1Below field | Declining | Similar | 1/8 · FairTrip | -0.24Weak finisher | Steady |
| war and love | 0.19 · #2Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 2 | L2 same class | L3 same class | +3.9Strong | Declining | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Class | -0.13Neutral | Quiet |
| kitsune power | -0.11 · #12Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class | +2.9Competitive | Improving | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Class, Form, Trip | 0.05Late positive | Steady |
| little ted | 0.07 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -4.1Below field | Declining | Weaker | 1/8 · FairTrip | -0.09Neutral | Steady |
| horwich | -0.26 · #13Hold-up | Pace to aim at | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class | +1.9Competitive | Improving | Stronger | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Class, Shape, Form | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| magic runner | 0.06 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class | -0.1Below field | Stable | Stronger | 1/8 · FairClass | -0.14Neutral | Steady |
| casilli | 0.00 · #9Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | -2.1Below field | Stable | Similar | 2/8 · FairClass, Trip | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| tiberio force | 0.13 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1 | -10.1Below field | Declining | Weaker | 2/8 · FairClass, Trip | -0.29Weak finisher | Steady |
| hijo de la luna | 0.17 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class | -9.1Below field | Improving | Similar | 1/8 · FairForm | -0.16Neutral | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Ripon 1m1f170y draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Exact going · all field sizes · 101 races
Going: Good14 runnersTurfStalls: Inside
LowA/E 0.93280 runners
MiddleA/E 1.06217 runners
HighA/E 1.05247 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 14 of 14 experienced runners
Archive coverage
14 of 14 runners
481 earlier WIN races matched
little ted · pre-off
Steamed 36 · Stable 16 · Drifted 50
102 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
little ted · in-play support
10%: 48 runs · 47%
25%: 27 runs · 26% · 50%: 15 runs · 15%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| saxon grace | 14 | Average 6.7 Last 4 / 8 | 12.50 | Steamed 6 · Stable 3 · Drifted 5 (14 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 43% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 29% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 14% | Established2026-08-01 · Hamilton |
| woodleigh | 37 | Average 5.0 Last 2 / 7 | 5.18 | Steamed 14 · Stable 7 · Drifted 15 (36 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 10 runs · 28% 25% shorter: 9 runs · 25% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 11% | Established2026-07-29 · Redcar |
| feliz navidad | 3 | Average 4.0 Last 3 / 3 | 67.56 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (3 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 67% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-07-26 · Pontefract |
| riddikulus | 11 | Average 5.9 Last 1 / 7 | 3.72 | Steamed 6 · Stable 2 · Drifted 2 (10 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 6 runs · 60% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 20% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 20% | Established2026-07-27 · Ripon |
| sunny orange | 54 | Average 5.8 Last 2 / 7 | 4.78 | Steamed 14 · Stable 6 · Drifted 34 (54 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 20 runs · 37% 25% shorter: 15 runs · 28% 50% shorter: 10 runs · 19% | Established2026-08-05 · Pontefract |
| daring leader | 32 | Average 5.8 Last 5 / 9 | 8.00 | Steamed 8 · Stable 4 · Drifted 13 (25 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 16 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 15 runs · 62% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 29% | Established2026-07-27 · Ayr |
| war and love | 7 | Average 5.3 Last 6 / 9 | 17.50 | Steamed 1 · Stable 3 · Drifted 3 (7 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 43% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 43% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 29% | Established2026-07-31 · Newcastle |
| kitsune power | 52 | Average 5.3 Last 4 / 8 | 8.00 | Steamed 21 · Stable 12 · Drifted 15 (48 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 26 runs · 54% 25% shorter: 15 runs · 31% 50% shorter: 9 runs · 19% | Established2026-07-29 · Redcar |
| little ted | 105 | Average 4.4 Last 2 / 12 | 5.57 | Steamed 36 · Stable 16 · Drifted 50 (102 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 48 runs · 47% 25% shorter: 27 runs · 26% 50% shorter: 15 runs · 15% | Established2026-07-25 · Newcastle |
| horwich | 13 | Average 6.8 Last 6 / 6 | 36.00 | Steamed 2 · Stable 2 · Drifted 8 (12 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 25% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 17% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 17% | Established2026-07-21 · Nottingham |
| magic runner | 25 | Average 5.5 Last 5 / 6 | 27.00 | Steamed 8 · Stable 2 · Drifted 15 (25 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 9 runs · 36% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 16% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 12% | Established2026-08-01 · Doncaster |
| casilli | 43 | Average 4.7 Last 3 / 10 | 5.91 | Steamed 11 · Stable 9 · Drifted 18 (38 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 14 runs · 37% 25% shorter: 9 runs · 24% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 16% | Established2025-08-14 · Beverley |
| tiberio force | 48 | Average 5.9 Last 6 / 10 | 15.02 | Steamed 19 · Stable 7 · Drifted 18 (44 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 23 runs · 53% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 26% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 16% | Established2026-07-31 · Newcastle |
| hijo de la luna | 37 | Average 6.7 Last 5 / 6 | 14.00 | Steamed 13 · Stable 6 · Drifted 17 (36 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 13 runs · 37% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 31% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 11% | Established2026-07-09 · Carlisle |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
daring leaderPressure
No reliable signalTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
saxon gracewoodleighriddikulussunny orangedaring leaderwar and lovekitsune powerlittle tedmagic runnercasillitiberio forcehijo de la lunaClosers
woodleighkitsune powerRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +8.9
Recent
Improving
Trend 4
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/4
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.13 · Finish -0.14
Connections
Hot
Daragh Bourke · Shane Gray
Draw
High · A/E 1.05
247 matched runners
Historical market
14 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.7
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -8
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 1/3 · D 2/3 · G 0/7
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.15
Connections
Steady
Roger Fell · Joanna Mason
Draw
High · A/E 1.05
247 matched runners
Historical market
37 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.9
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 drop 2 | L2 drop 1 | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.45 · Finish -0.75
Connections
Steady
David Omeara · Daniel Tudhope
Draw
High · A/E 1.05
247 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.0
Ability
Below field
OR edge -2.1
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 2/3 · D 1/3 · G 1/2
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.07 · Finish -0.26
Connections
Hot
Grant Tuer · Oliver Stammers
Draw
High · A/E 1.05
247 matched runners
Historical market
11 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.9
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.9
Recent
Improving
Trend 10
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Weak
C 0/1 · D 0/4 · G 0/10
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.04 · Finish 0.04
Connections
Steady
Tim Easterby · Duran Fentiman
Draw
Low · A/E 0.93
280 matched runners
Historical market
54 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -11
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/1 · D 1/10 · G 2/6
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.24 · Finish -0.24
Connections
Steady
Christopher Kellett · Jason Hart
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.06
217 matched runners
Historical market
32 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.8
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -19
Trajectory
Major dropper
L1 drop 2 | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/0 · G 0/2
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.19 · Finish -0.13
Connections
Quiet
Brian Ellison · Ben Robinson
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.06
217 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.3
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.9
Recent
Improving
Trend 7
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 drop 1 | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 0/2 · D 2/12 · G 2/15
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.11 · Finish 0.05
Connections
Steady
Tim Easterby · Amie Waugh(3)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.93
280 matched runners
Historical market
52 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.3
Ability
Below field
OR edge -4.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -9
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Strong
C 3/17 · D 3/15 · G 6/39
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.07 · Finish -0.09
Connections
Steady
Tim Easterby · David Allan
Draw
High · A/E 1.05
247 matched runners
Historical market
105 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.4
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.9
Recent
Improving
Trend 6
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.26 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Ruth Carr · William Pyle
Draw
High · A/E 1.05
247 matched runners
Historical market
13 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.1
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 drop 1 | L3 same class
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.06 · Finish -0.14
Connections
Steady
Ruth Carr · James Sullivan
Draw
Low · A/E 0.93
280 matched runners
Historical market
25 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -2.1
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 1/4 · D 3/18 · G 3/12
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Michael & David Easterby · Billy Garritty
Draw
Low · A/E 0.93
280 matched runners
Historical market
43 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.7
Ability
Below field
OR edge -10.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -4
Trajectory
Class dropper
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 drop 1
Conditions
Strong
C 1/6 · D 2/21 · G 1/11
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.13 · Finish -0.29
Connections
Steady
Simon Whitaker · Mark Winn
Draw
Low · A/E 0.93
280 matched runners
Historical market
48 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.9
Ability
Below field
OR edge -9.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 14
Trajectory
Same grade
L1 same class | L2 same class | L3 same class
Conditions
Weak
C 0/0 · D 0/11 · G 0/13
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.17 · Finish -0.16
Connections
Steady
Simon West · Andrew Elliott
Draw
Middle · A/E 1.06
217 matched runners
Historical market
37 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.7
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 56 · Tramore
4:50 Tramore
Newly Weds Sara & Nigel Irish EBF Fillies Maiden
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 7.47 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Limited
27%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history4/6
Usable Official Rating0/6
Informative pace profile1/6
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
u s navy spearhead
24.9%Win
2
sea of the celts
17.4%Win
Leader separation7.47pp
Race shape
No clear leader
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureLight
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioEven
CollapseLow
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderphloxUnclear
Pace pressureLightNo clear leader
Top threatu s navy spearhead1/8 · Yard
Best closerphloxStrong finisher
Field abilityUnratedInsufficient OR coverage
Race chaosNormal58
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| u s navy spearhead | 0.00 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 1/8 · FairYard | 0.00Neutral | Hot |
| sea of the celts | 0.00 · #2Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| mawhibah | -0.55 · #6Hold-up | Waiting ride | No recent class line | —Unrated | Stable | Weak | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.70Weak finisher | Steady |
| phlox | -0.20 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Stable | Weak | 0/8 · LowNone | 1.00Strong finisher | Steady |
| express choise | 0.00 · #1Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Weak | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| essential comedy | -0.20 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Stable | Weak | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Tramore 1m4f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Course/distance baseline · 30 races
Going: Yielding6 runnersTurfStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E 0.5489 runners
MiddleA/E 0.7773 runners
HighA/E 1.4879 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Partial · 5 of 6 experienced runners
Archive coverage
5 of 6 runners
9 earlier WIN races matched
essential comedy · pre-off
Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2
2 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
essential comedy · in-play support
10%: 1 runs · 50%
25%: 1 runs · 50% · 50%: 1 runs · 50%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| u s navy spearhead | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| sea of the celts | 1 | Average — Last — | — | — | 10% shorter: — 25% shorter: — 50% shorter: — | Limited2026-07-13 · Killarney |
| mawhibah | 2 | Average 5.0 Last 5 / 9 | 8.93 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-11 · Limerick |
| phlox | 2 | Average 4.5 Last 5 / 9 | 9.40 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-13 · Killarney |
| express choise | 1 | Average 6.0 Last 6 / 9 | 42.00 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-07-11 · Limerick |
| essential comedy | 3 | Average 6.5 Last — | — | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (2 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 50% | Descriptive2026-07-31 · Galway |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
phloxPressure
No reliable signalTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
u s navy spearheadsea of the celtsphloxexpress choiseessential comedyClosers
phloxRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Hot
P G Fahey · Jessica Ogorman(7)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.54
89 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
P Twomey · Robbie Colgan
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.77
73 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend 1
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.55 · Finish -0.70
Connections
Steady
Joseph Patrick Obrien · Shay Wallace(7)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.54
89 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend -1
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.20 · Finish 1.00
Connections
Steady
J P Murtagh · Jamie Powell
Draw
High · A/E 1.48
79 matched runners
Historical market
2 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.5
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
K J Condon · Scott Mccullagh
Draw
High · A/E 1.48
79 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend 1
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.20 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Ms Claire Oconnell · Rory Cleary
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.77
73 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.5
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 57 · Tramore
5:25 Tramore
Griffin Auctioneers Maiden
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 5.08 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Limited
41%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history6/10
Usable Official Rating1/10
Informative pace profile7/10
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
glittering gem
22.6%Win
2
shirzan
17.5%Win
Leader separation5.08pp
Race shape
Narrow pace edge
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureModerate
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Positive
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadersolnessPossible leader
Pace pressureModerateNarrow pace edge
Top threatdavy crockett3/8 · Shape, Yard
Best closersolnessFinishes well
Field abilityUnratedInsufficient OR coverage
Race chaosCompetitive75
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| glittering gem | 0.05 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Declining | Weak | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.50Weak finisher | Steady |
| shirzan | -0.03 · #8Possible leader | Faces pace burn | No recent class line | —Unrated | Declining | Average | 1/8 · FairYard | -0.23Weak finisher | Hot |
| davy crockett | -0.21 · #9Hold-up | Pace to aim at | No recent class line | —Unrated | Stable | Average | 3/8 · LiveShape, Yard | -0.11Neutral | Hot |
| metallic | 0.00 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| onlytheriverknows | 0.00 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Unknown | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| solness | 0.15 · #1Possible leader | Faces pace burn | No recent class line | —Unrated | Improving | Strong | 1/8 · FairForm | 0.24Finishes well | Steady |
| kaleo ametsa | -0.02 · #7Prominent | Stalking hot pace | No recent class line | —Unrated | Declining | Weak | 2/8 · FairShape | -0.48Weak finisher | Steady |
| aiteall | 0.00 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Unclear | Weak | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| nothingbutadream | -0.55 · #10Hold-up | Pace to aim at | No recent class line | —Unrated | Improving | Weak | 3/8 · LiveShape, Form | -0.80Weak finisher | Quiet |
| keep it together | 0.14 · #2Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | —Unrated | Declining | Weak | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.40Weak finisher | Quiet |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Tramore 1m4f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Course/distance baseline · 30 races
Going: Yielding10 runnersTurfStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E 0.5489 runners
MiddleA/E 0.7773 runners
HighA/E 1.4879 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Partial · 8 of 10 experienced runners
Archive coverage
8 of 10 runners
76 earlier WIN races matched
solness · pre-off
Steamed 14 · Stable 4 · Drifted 8
26 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
solness · in-play support
10%: 17 runs · 65%
25%: 14 runs · 54% · 50%: 8 runs · 31%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| glittering gem | 7 | Average 3.2 Last 7 / 14 | 18.50 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 3 (4 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 25% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 25% | Established2026-08-05 · Sligo |
| shirzan | 4 | Average 6.2 Last 4 / 8 | 8.40 | Steamed 3 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (4 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 100% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 75% | Descriptive2026-05-10 · Cork |
| davy crockett | 6 | Average 3.0 Last 7 / 21 | 17.50 | Steamed 3 · Stable 2 · Drifted 1 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-04-28 · Punchestown |
| metallic | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| onlytheriverknows | 0 | — | — | — | — | Unavailable |
| solness | 31 | Average 3.9 Last 5 / 20 | 14.65 | Steamed 14 · Stable 4 · Drifted 8 (26 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 17 runs · 65% 25% shorter: 14 runs · 54% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 31% | Established2026-07-30 · Galway |
| kaleo ametsa | 12 | Average 7.1 Last 4 / 18 | 13.05 | Steamed 4 · Stable 1 · Drifted 4 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 89% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 78% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 67% | Established2026-08-03 · Cork |
| aiteall | 1 | Average 5.0 Last 5 / 14 | 28.35 | Steamed 0 · Stable 0 · Drifted 1 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-08-06 · Leopardstown |
| nothingbutadream | 1 | Average 10.0 Last 10 / 16 | 85.73 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 0 (1 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Limited2026-04-11 · Bellewstown |
| keep it together | 14 | Average 11.4 Last 6 / 6 | 1000.00 | Steamed 2 · Stable 4 · Drifted 7 (13 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 80% 25% shorter: 8 runs · 80% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 50% | Established2026-08-07 · Gowran Park |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
solnessPressure
shirzansolnessTracking
kaleo ametsaMidfield
glittering gemmetalliconlytheriverknowsaiteallkeep it togetherClosers
solnessRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Declining
Trend -12
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.05 · Finish -0.50
Connections
Steady
D K Weld · Sam Coen(5)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.77
73 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.2
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Declining
Trend -5
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Possible leader
Front -0.03 · Finish -0.23
Connections
Hot
P G Fahey · Jessica Ogorman(7)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.54
89 matched runners
Historical market
4 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.2
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend 1
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 1/2
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.21 · Finish -0.11
Connections
Hot
W P Mullins · Daniel King
Draw
High · A/E 1.48
79 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Joseph Patrick Obrien · Julian Pietropaolo(7)
Draw
High · A/E 1.48
79 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Seamus G Odonnell · Darragh Okeeffe
Draw
Low · A/E 0.54
89 matched runners
Historical market
0 runs
Avg BSP rank —
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Improving
Trend 24
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 5/9
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.15 · Finish 0.24
Connections
Steady
Joseph Patrick Obrien · J J Slevin
Draw
Low · A/E 0.54
89 matched runners
Historical market
31 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.9
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Declining
Trend -36
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Prominent
Front -0.02 · Finish -0.48
Connections
Steady
Josh Halley · Jimmy Dalton(7)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.77
73 matched runners
Historical market
12 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.1
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Unclear
Trend —
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
Joseph Patrick Obrien · Shay Wallace(7)
Draw
High · A/E 1.48
79 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Improving
Trend 5
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.55 · Finish -0.80
Connections
Quiet
Chris Timmons · Conor Stone-Walsh(3)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.54
89 matched runners
Historical market
1 runs
Avg BSP rank 10.0
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Declining
Trend -15
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/2 · G 0/3
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.14 · Finish -0.40
Connections
Quiet
D Buckley · Benjamin P Kennedy(7)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.77
73 matched runners
Historical market
14 runs
Avg BSP rank 11.4
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 58 · Tramore
5:55 Tramore
Morris DIY Rated Race
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 16.91 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
82%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history8/8
Usable Official Rating7/8
Informative pace profile8/8
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
maxminelli
39.5%Win
2
rodeo blues
22.6%Win
Leader separation16.91pp
Race shape
Front end contested
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leadera pretty pennyPossible leader
Pace pressureStrongFront end contested
Top threatsunrush4/8 · Ability, Shape
Best closermaxminelliStrong finisher
Field abilitymaxminelliStrong
Race chaosCompetitive72
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| maxminelli | 0.22 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +4.7Strong | Stable | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility | 0.30Strong finisher | Steady |
| rodeo blues | 0.24 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | No recent class line | +3.7Strong | Improving | Similar | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form | -0.06Neutral | Steady |
| tanzanite diamond | -0.15 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +2.7Competitive | Declining | Similar | 1/8 · FairAbility | -0.02Neutral | Steady |
| sunrush | 0.17 · #5Prominent | Stalking hot pace | No recent class line | +4.7Strong | Stable | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Shape | -0.80Weak finisher | Steady |
| love orchid | -0.16 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -2.3Below field | Improving | Similar | 1/8 · FairForm | -0.03Neutral | Steady |
| a pretty penny | 0.40 · #1Possible leader | Faces pace burn | No recent class line | -4.3Below field | Improving | Similar | 1/8 · FairForm | -0.32Weak finisher | Quiet |
| mare crisium | 0.36 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | No recent class line | —Unrated | Stable | Weaker | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.12Neutral | Steady |
| tickle the cat | -0.28 · #8Hold-up | Pace to aim at | No recent class line | -9.3Below field | Stable | Stronger | 2/8 · FairShape | -0.40Weak finisher | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Tramore 1m4f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Course/distance baseline · 30 races
Going: Yielding8 runnersTurfStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E 0.5489 runners
MiddleA/E 0.7773 runners
HighA/E 1.4879 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 8 of 8 experienced runners
Archive coverage
8 of 8 runners
58 earlier WIN races matched
love orchid · pre-off
Steamed 4 · Stable 2 · Drifted 2
8 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
love orchid · in-play support
10%: 5 runs · 62%
25%: 3 runs · 38% · 50%: 1 runs · 12%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| maxminelli | 7 | Average 4.0 Last 2 / 6 | 3.37 | Steamed 4 · Stable 1 · Drifted 0 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 40% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 20% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 20% | Established2026-07-11 · Limerick |
| rodeo blues | 8 | Average 5.4 Last 1 / 17 | 3.50 | Steamed 4 · Stable 1 · Drifted 3 (8 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 62% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 38% | Established2026-07-30 · Galway |
| tanzanite diamond | 6 | Average 6.7 Last 5 / 22 | 12.74 | Steamed 2 · Stable 0 · Drifted 4 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 17% | Established2026-08-06 · Leopardstown |
| sunrush | 6 | Average 6.0 Last 6 / 7 | 10.59 | Steamed 0 · Stable 1 · Drifted 3 (4 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-06-04 · Leopardstown |
| love orchid | 11 | Average 7.0 Last 7 / 18 | 22.00 | Steamed 4 · Stable 2 · Drifted 2 (8 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 62% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 38% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 12% | Established2026-07-31 · Galway |
| a pretty penny | 10 | Average 6.8 Last 4 / 11 | 7.55 | Steamed 6 · Stable 2 · Drifted 1 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 57% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 43% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-07-07 · Tramore |
| mare crisium | 7 | Average 6.2 Last 7 / 10 | 22.00 | Steamed 2 · Stable 0 · Drifted 4 (6 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 17% | Established2026-08-05 · Sligo |
| tickle the cat | 3 | Average 11.3 Last 14 / 19 | 1000.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (3 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 2 runs · 100% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 50% | Descriptive2026-06-24 · Naas |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
a pretty pennyPressure
rodeo bluesa pretty pennymare crisiumTracking
sunrushMidfield
maxminellitanzanite diamondlove orchidClosers
maxminelliRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.7
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.22 · Finish 0.30
Connections
Steady
Henry De Bromhead · Darragh Okeeffe
Draw
High · A/E 1.48
79 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.0
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.7
Recent
Improving
Trend 18
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 1/3
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.24 · Finish -0.06
Connections
Steady
Joseph Patrick Obrien · Julian Pietropaolo(7)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.77
73 matched runners
Historical market
8 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.4
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.7
Recent
Declining
Trend -7
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.15 · Finish -0.02
Connections
Steady
Adrian Mcguinness · Scott Mccullagh
Draw
Low · A/E 0.54
89 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.7
Ability
Strong
OR edge +4.7
Recent
Stable
Trend 1
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Prominent
Front 0.17 · Finish -0.80
Connections
Steady
Andrew Slattery · Sam Coen(5)
Draw
High · A/E 1.48
79 matched runners
Historical market
6 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.0
Ability
Below field
OR edge -2.3
Recent
Improving
Trend 16
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.16 · Finish -0.03
Connections
Steady
Noel Meade · Nicola Burns(5)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.54
89 matched runners
Historical market
11 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.0
Ability
Below field
OR edge -4.3
Recent
Improving
Trend 13
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/1 · D 0/1 · G 0/2
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.40 · Finish -0.32
Connections
Quiet
Mrs Deborah Cody · Shay Wallace(7)
Draw
High · A/E 1.48
79 matched runners
Historical market
10 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.8
Ability
Unrated
Insufficient rated rivals
Recent
Stable
Trend 0
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/1
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.36 · Finish -0.12
Connections
Steady
K J Condon · Robbie Colgan
Draw
Low · A/E 0.54
89 matched runners
Historical market
7 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -9.3
Recent
Stable
Trend -3
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/1
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.28 · Finish -0.40
Connections
Steady
Kevin Thomas Coleman · Jamie Powell
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.77
73 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 11.3
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 59 · Tramore
6:25 Tramore
Strand Inn Dunmore East Handicap
Forecast reading
Near dead heat at the top
Top-two win-probability separation: 0.77 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
80%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history10/10
Usable Official Rating10/10
Informative pace profile8/10
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Near dead heat at the top
1
tassarolo
17.5%Win
2
stepdance
16.7%Win
Leader separation0.77pp
Race shape
Solo lead chance
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureLight
Pace certaintyClear
ScenarioSlow
CollapseLow
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderpreparationsLikely leader
Pace pressureLightSolo lead chance
Top threatpreparations4/8 · Ability, Shape, Trip
Best closerlimestone redFinishes well
Field abilitytassaroloStrong
Race chaosNormal46
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tassarolo | 0.09 · #2Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +5.9Strong | Stable | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility | 0.02Neutral | Steady |
| stepdance | -0.04 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +5.9Strong | Declining | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip | -0.25Weak finisher | Steady |
| miss australie | -0.03 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +5.9Strong | Declining | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip | -0.24Weak finisher | Steady |
| go flo jo | 0.00 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -4.1Below field | Stable | Similar | 1/8 · FairYard | 0.00Neutral | Hot |
| preparations | 0.59 · #1Likely leader | May control | No recent class line | +1.9Competitive | Declining | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Shape, Trip | 0.03Neutral | Steady |
| nathema | -0.35 · #10Hold-up | May need help | No recent class line | +3.9Strong | Declining | Similar | 2/8 · FairAbility | -0.23Weak finisher | Steady |
| limestone red | -0.13 · #8Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -6.1Below field | Declining | Similar | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.15Finishes well | Quiet |
| spinning web | 0.04 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -5.1Below field | Declining | Weaker | 1/8 · FairTrip | 0.04Late positive | Quiet |
| duleek street | 0.00 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -10.1Below field | Improving | Stronger | 1/8 · FairForm | 0.00Neutral | Steady |
| mullacurry maid | -0.14 · #9Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +1.9Competitive | Stable | Weaker | 1/8 · FairAbility | -0.17Neutral | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Tramore 1m4f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Course/distance baseline · 30 races
Going: Yielding10 runnersTurfStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E 0.5489 runners
MiddleA/E 0.7773 runners
HighA/E 1.4879 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 10 of 10 experienced runners
Archive coverage
10 of 10 runners
231 earlier WIN races matched
spinning web · pre-off
Steamed 11 · Stable 6 · Drifted 19
36 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
spinning web · in-play support
10%: 17 runs · 49%
25%: 11 runs · 31% · 50%: 5 runs · 14%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tassarolo | 36 | Average 6.4 Last 7 / 8 | 14.57 | Steamed 10 · Stable 1 · Drifted 13 (24 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 15 runs · 62% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 46% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 29% | Established2026-08-07 · Wexford |
| stepdance | 24 | Average 7.0 Last 13 / 22 | 32.77 | Steamed 9 · Stable 3 · Drifted 9 (21 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 11 runs · 52% 25% shorter: 8 runs · 38% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 19% | Established2026-08-06 · Leopardstown |
| miss australie | 20 | Average 8.5 Last 8 / 14 | 21.22 | Steamed 6 · Stable 1 · Drifted 10 (17 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 10 runs · 59% 25% shorter: 8 runs · 47% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 24% | Established2026-08-05 · Sligo |
| go flo jo | 8 | Average 9.1 Last 7 / 14 | 24.00 | Steamed 2 · Stable 1 · Drifted 4 (7 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 3 runs · 43% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 29% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 29% | Established2025-11-21 · Dundalk |
| preparations | 22 | Average 5.5 Last — | — | Steamed 5 · Stable 4 · Drifted 10 (19 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 14 runs · 74% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 58% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 32% | Established2026-08-05 · Sligo |
| nathema | 3 | Average 7.3 Last 9 / 12 | 32.00 | Steamed 1 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (3 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 25% shorter: 0 runs · 0% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Descriptive2026-07-24 · Cork |
| limestone red | 35 | Average 5.9 Last 10 / 15 | 34.52 | Steamed 12 · Stable 5 · Drifted 13 (30 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 12 runs · 40% 25% shorter: 8 runs · 27% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 17% | Established2026-07-15 · Killarney |
| spinning web | 41 | Average 5.8 Last 9 / 16 | 23.27 | Steamed 11 · Stable 6 · Drifted 19 (36 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 17 runs · 49% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 31% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 14% | Established2026-06-07 · Navan |
| duleek street | 33 | Average 6.5 Last 11 / 15 | 55.00 | Steamed 8 · Stable 3 · Drifted 11 (22 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 11 runs · 52% 25% shorter: 8 runs · 38% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 29% | Established2025-08-03 · Galway |
| mullacurry maid | 9 | Average 12.0 Last — | — | Steamed 0 · Stable 3 · Drifted 2 (5 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 1 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 0 runs · 0% | Established2026-08-05 · Sligo |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
preparationsPressure
No reliable signalTracking
No reliable signalMidfield
tassarolostepdancemiss australiego flo jolimestone redspinning webduleek streetmullacurry maidClosers
limestone redRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.9
Recent
Stable
Trend 3
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Weak
C 0/0 · D 0/6 · G 0/2
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.09 · Finish 0.02
Connections
Steady
Denis Gerard Hogan · Daniel King
Draw
High · A/E 1.48
79 matched runners
Historical market
36 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.4
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -32
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 2/3 · D 2/4 · G 0/4
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.04 · Finish -0.25
Connections
Steady
Henry De Bromhead · Darragh Okeeffe
Draw
High · A/E 1.48
79 matched runners
Historical market
24 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.0
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -8
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/4 · G 0/5
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.03 · Finish -0.24
Connections
Steady
Adrian Mcguinness · J J Slevin
Draw
High · A/E 1.48
79 matched runners
Historical market
20 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -4.1
Recent
Stable
Trend 2
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/1 · D 0/3 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Hot
P G Fahey · Jessica Ogorman(7)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.77
73 matched runners
Historical market
8 runs
Avg BSP rank 9.1
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -15
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/7 · G 1/4
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.59 · Finish 0.03
Connections
Steady
Andrew Slattery · Sam Coen(5)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.77
73 matched runners
Historical market
22 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.5
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -4
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Neutral
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 0/1
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.35 · Finish -0.23
Connections
Steady
Andrew Slattery · Jimmy Dalton(7)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.54
89 matched runners
Historical market
3 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.3
Ability
Below field
OR edge -6.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -18
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.13 · Finish 0.15
Connections
Quiet
Tracey Collins · Rory Cleary
Draw
Low · A/E 0.54
89 matched runners
Historical market
35 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.9
Ability
Below field
OR edge -5.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -15
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 0/2 · D 1/5 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.04 · Finish 0.04
Connections
Quiet
Ms Margaret Mullins · Nicola Burns(5)
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.77
73 matched runners
Historical market
41 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -10.1
Recent
Improving
Trend 26
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Weak
C 0/0 · D 0/6 · G 0/5
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Steady
John C Mcconnell · Siobhan Rutledge
Draw
Low · A/E 0.54
89 matched runners
Historical market
33 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.5
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.9
Recent
Stable
Trend 3
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/1 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.14 · Finish -0.17
Connections
Steady
Donal Kinsella · Robbie Colgan
Draw
Low · A/E 0.54
89 matched runners
Historical market
9 runs
Avg BSP rank 12.0
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 60 · Tramore
6:55 Tramore
Perennial Freight Handicap
Forecast reading
Competitive top group
Top-two win-probability separation: 2.69 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history7/7
Usable Official Rating7/7
Informative pace profile7/7
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Competitive top group
1
merlin the wizard
22.2%Win
2
marmeladova
19.5%Win
Leader separation2.69pp
Race shape
Leader with room
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureModerate
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioEven
CollapseLow
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderexpoundLikely leader
Pace pressureModerateLeader with room
Top threatrakki3/8 · Shape, Yard
Best closermarmeladovaLate positive
Field abilitydaboyaStrong
Race chaosCompetitive65
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| merlin the wizard | 0.03 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +2.9Competitive | Improving | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility, Form | -0.04Neutral | Steady |
| marmeladova | -0.21 · #7Hold-up | Waiting ride | No recent class line | +3.9Strong | Declining | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility | 0.08Late positive | Steady |
| churchwarden | -0.01 · #5Hold-up | Waiting ride | No recent class line | -2.1Below field | Stable | Stronger | 1/8 · FairTrip | -0.14Neutral | Steady |
| rakki | 0.19 · #2Prominent | Good stalking run | No recent class line | -4.1Below field | Declining | Similar | 3/8 · LiveShape, Yard | -0.08Neutral | Hot |
| daboya | 0.11 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +5.9Strong | Declining | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Trip | -0.03Neutral | Steady |
| expound | 0.43 · #1Likely leader | Lead with pressure | No recent class line | -0.1Below field | Declining | Stronger | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.15Neutral | Steady |
| berto ramirez | -0.05 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -6.1Below field | Declining | Stronger | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.14Neutral | Steady |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Tramore 1m4f draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Course/distance baseline · 30 races
Going: Yielding7 runnersTurfStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E 0.5489 runners
MiddleA/E 0.7773 runners
HighA/E 1.4879 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 7 of 7 experienced runners
Archive coverage
7 of 7 runners
186 earlier WIN races matched
expound · pre-off
Steamed 9 · Stable 7 · Drifted 27
43 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
expound · in-play support
10%: 26 runs · 62%
25%: 22 runs · 52% · 50%: 9 runs · 21%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| merlin the wizard | 24 | Average 6.4 Last 4 / 13 | 9.86 | Steamed 11 · Stable 1 · Drifted 11 (23 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 11 runs · 48% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 30% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 17% | Established2026-07-30 · Galway |
| marmeladova | 10 | Average 5.8 Last 3 / 9 | 5.38 | Steamed 3 · Stable 0 · Drifted 6 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 44% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 22% | Established2026-07-16 · Leopardstown |
| churchwarden | 24 | Average 6.5 Last 2 / 12 | 4.53 | Steamed 5 · Stable 1 · Drifted 14 (20 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 14 runs · 70% 25% shorter: 13 runs · 65% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 30% | Established2026-07-07 · Tramore |
| rakki | 19 | Average 4.2 Last 4 / 19 | 8.40 | Steamed 5 · Stable 3 · Drifted 11 (19 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 12 runs · 63% 25% shorter: 8 runs · 42% 50% shorter: 4 runs · 21% | Established2026-07-29 · Galway |
| daboya | 26 | Average 6.4 Last 2 / 10 | 4.19 | Steamed 5 · Stable 3 · Drifted 14 (22 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 14 runs · 64% 25% shorter: 13 runs · 59% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 36% | Established2026-07-20 · Ballinrobe |
| expound | 58 | Average 5.4 Last 6 / 11 | 30.00 | Steamed 9 · Stable 7 · Drifted 27 (43 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 26 runs · 62% 25% shorter: 22 runs · 52% 50% shorter: 9 runs · 21% | Established2026-05-14 · Clonmel |
| berto ramirez | 25 | Average 6.8 Last 9 / 20 | 19.50 | Steamed 4 · Stable 3 · Drifted 14 (21 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 12 runs · 57% 25% shorter: 10 runs · 48% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 24% | Established2026-08-01 · Galway |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
expoundPressure
No reliable signalTracking
rakkiMidfield
merlin the wizarddaboyaberto ramirezClosers
marmeladovaRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.9
Recent
Improving
Trend 18
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 1/1 · G 1/3
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.03 · Finish -0.04
Connections
Steady
R P Cody · Reese Holohan(7)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.54
89 matched runners
Historical market
24 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.4
Ability
Strong
OR edge +3.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -6
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/1 · G 0/2
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.21 · Finish 0.08
Connections
Steady
K J Condon · Robbie Colgan
Draw
High · A/E 1.48
79 matched runners
Historical market
10 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.8
Ability
Below field
OR edge -2.1
Recent
Stable
Trend -2
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 1/1 · D 1/4 · G 1/2
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.01 · Finish -0.14
Connections
Steady
Henry De Bromhead · Gary Carroll
Draw
Low · A/E 0.54
89 matched runners
Historical market
24 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.5
Ability
Below field
OR edge -4.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -26
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 0/2
Pace
Prominent
Front 0.19 · Finish -0.08
Connections
Hot
W P Mullins · Ben Coen
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.77
73 matched runners
Historical market
19 runs
Avg BSP rank 4.2
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.9
Recent
Declining
Trend -24
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 1/1 · D 2/8 · G 1/3
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.11 · Finish -0.03
Connections
Steady
R Donohoe · Sam Coen(5)
Draw
Low · A/E 0.54
89 matched runners
Historical market
26 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.4
Ability
Below field
OR edge -0.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -20
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 1/4 · D 0/2 · G 0/5
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.43 · Finish -0.15
Connections
Steady
Denis Gerard Hogan · Daniel King
Draw
Middle · A/E 0.77
73 matched runners
Historical market
58 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.4
Ability
Below field
OR edge -6.1
Recent
Declining
Trend -30
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/2 · G 0/2
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.05 · Finish -0.14
Connections
Steady
Andrew Mcnamara · Jamie Powell
Draw
High · A/E 1.48
79 matched runners
Historical market
25 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.8
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 61 · Tramore
7:25 Tramore
Brennan's Pharmacy Handicap
Forecast reading
Clearer forecast leader
Top-two win-probability separation: 3.07 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
82%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history8/8
Usable Official Rating8/8
Informative pace profile7/8
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Clearer forecast leader
1
delta
22.6%Win
2
spasiba
19.5%Win
Leader separation3.07pp
Race shape
Leader under pressure
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureStrong
Pace certaintyPlausible
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Positive
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderplontierLikely leader
Pace pressureStrongLeader under pressure
Top threatfiley bay5/8 · Ability, Shape, Trip
Best closerzoffmanStrong finisher
Field abilitydeltaDominant
Race chaosCompetitive73
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| delta | 0.33 · #2Prominent | Stalking hot pace | No recent class line | +11.6Dominant | Declining | Similar | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Shape | -0.03Neutral | Steady |
| spasiba | 0.00 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +1.6Competitive | Improving | Stronger | 4/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Trip, Yard | 0.00Neutral | Hot |
| filey bay | -0.17 · #8Hold-up | Pace to aim at | No recent class line | +7.6Dominant | Declining | Stronger | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Shape, Trip | 0.16Finishes well | Steady |
| way down south | 0.13 · #4Hold-up | Pace to aim at | No recent class line | -7.4Below field | Declining | Stronger | 2/8 · FairShape | -0.48Weak finisher | Steady |
| zoffman | -0.13 · #7Hold-up | Pace to aim at | No recent class line | -6.4Below field | Declining | Weaker | 3/8 · LiveShape, Trip | 0.30Strong finisher | Steady |
| clear quartz | 0.20 · #3Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +5.6Strong | Declining | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility | 0.16Finishes well | Steady |
| plontier | 0.43 · #1Likely leader | Faces pace burn | No recent class line | +1.6Competitive | Declining | Stronger | 1/8 · FairAbility | -0.61Weak finisher | Steady |
| miss gitana | 0.12 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -14.4Below field | Declining | Weaker | 1/8 · FairTrip | -0.21Weak finisher | Quiet |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Tramore 2m draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Insufficient evidence · 0 races
Going: Yielding8 runnersTurfStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E —0 runners
MiddleA/E —0 runners
HighA/E —0 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 8 of 8 experienced runners
Archive coverage
8 of 8 runners
202 earlier WIN races matched
clear quartz · pre-off
Steamed 20 · Stable 4 · Drifted 19
43 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
clear quartz · in-play support
10%: 22 runs · 51%
25%: 17 runs · 40% · 50%: 12 runs · 28%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| delta | 9 | Average 3.2 Last 1 / 5 | 1.91 | Steamed 2 · Stable 3 · Drifted 4 (9 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 56% 25% shorter: 3 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 22% | Established2026-07-09 · Leopardstown |
| spasiba | 13 | Average 5.5 Last 7 / 8 | 55.00 | Steamed 4 · Stable 0 · Drifted 7 (11 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 36% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 36% 50% shorter: 1 runs · 9% | Established2025-01-05 · Naas |
| filey bay | 22 | Average 5.0 Last 3 / 20 | 10.95 | Steamed 9 · Stable 4 · Drifted 9 (22 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 13 runs · 59% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 23% | Established2026-07-27 · Galway |
| way down south | 25 | Average 7.1 Last 6 / 6 | 100.00 | Steamed 9 · Stable 3 · Drifted 10 (22 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 12 runs · 55% 25% shorter: 11 runs · 50% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 23% | Established2026-07-31 · Galway |
| zoffman | 41 | Average 5.2 Last 12 / 18 | 30.00 | Steamed 18 · Stable 6 · Drifted 13 (37 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 18 runs · 49% 25% shorter: 13 runs · 35% 50% shorter: 8 runs · 22% | Established2026-06-12 · Fairyhouse |
| clear quartz | 44 | Average 8.8 Last 15 / 20 | 65.00 | Steamed 20 · Stable 4 · Drifted 19 (43 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 22 runs · 51% 25% shorter: 17 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 12 runs · 28% | Established2026-07-27 · Galway |
| plontier | 12 | Average 9.0 Last 19 / 20 | 180.00 | Steamed 4 · Stable 1 · Drifted 5 (10 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 8 runs · 80% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 30% | Established2026-07-27 · Galway |
| miss gitana | 36 | Average 6.2 Last — | — | Steamed 12 · Stable 1 · Drifted 18 (31 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 20 runs · 65% 25% shorter: 14 runs · 45% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 23% | Established2026-08-06 · Leopardstown |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
plontierPressure
No reliable signalTracking
deltaMidfield
spasibaclear quartzmiss gitanaClosers
filey bayzoffmanclear quartzRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +11.6
Recent
Declining
Trend -4
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Prominent
Front 0.33 · Finish -0.03
Connections
Steady
Joseph Patrick Obrien · J J Slevin
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
9 runs
Avg BSP rank 3.2
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.6
Recent
Improving
Trend 14
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/2 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.00 · Finish 0.00
Connections
Hot
W P Mullins · Ben Coen
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
13 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.5
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +7.6
Recent
Declining
Trend -8
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 1/1 · D 1/7 · G 1/6
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.17 · Finish 0.16
Connections
Steady
Emmet Mullins · Simon Torrens
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
22 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.0
Ability
Below field
OR edge -7.4
Recent
Declining
Trend -20
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/1 · G 0/5
Pace
Hold-up
Front 0.13 · Finish -0.48
Connections
Steady
Gillian Scott · Nicola Burns(5)
Draw
Middle · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
25 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.1
Ability
Below field
OR edge -6.4
Recent
Declining
Trend -30
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/5 · G 1/7
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.13 · Finish 0.30
Connections
Steady
Noel Meade · Gary Carroll
Draw
Middle · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
41 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.2
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.6
Recent
Declining
Trend -9
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 2/7
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.20 · Finish 0.16
Connections
Steady
Mark Fahey · Joseph Harnett(7)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
44 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.8
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +1.6
Recent
Declining
Trend -12
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/1 · G 0/4
Pace
Likely leader
Front 0.43 · Finish -0.61
Connections
Steady
Terence Obrien · Reese Holohan(7)
Draw
Low · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
12 runs
Avg BSP rank 9.0
Ability
Below field
OR edge -14.4
Recent
Declining
Trend -8
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 1/1 · D 1/3 · G 0/3
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.12 · Finish -0.21
Connections
Quiet
Joseph Anthony Murray · Julian Pietropaolo(7)
Draw
Low · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
36 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.2
◈
V2 report using today’s Hoofs inputs. Prediction remains separate from explanatory evidence; historical Betfair figures use earlier races only.
Race 62 · Tramore
7:55 Tramore
Dan Cowman Memorial Handicap
Forecast reading
Competitive top group
Top-two win-probability separation: 1.36 percentage points. Evidence quality is shown separately.
Race evidence quality
Strong
85%
Input coverage—not confidence that the top runner will win.
Recent form history11/11
Usable Official Rating11/11
Informative pace profile11/11
Sectional coverageNot supplied
Prediction
Competitive top group
1
god of thunder
16.7%Win
2
highway sixty one
15.4%Win
Leader separation1.36pp
Race shape
Narrow pace edge
The tactical projection uses strictly pre-race historical style evidence.
Pace pressureModerate
Pace certaintyWeak
ScenarioHot
CollapseHigh
Read: Neutral
Companion race intelligence
The useful current Companion signals remain first-class.
Likely leaderlariatProminent
Pace pressureModerateNarrow pace edge
Top threatbynx5/8 · Ability, Shape, Form, Trip
Best closergallo dell cieloFinishes well
Field abilitygod of thunderDominant
Race chaosCompetitive77
Original Companion runner scores
The complete existing runner layer is retained.
Current Companion · unchanged
| Runner | Leader/front | Pace setup | Class | Ability | Form | Last race | Threat | Finish/closer | Yard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| god of thunder | 0.15 · #4Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +8.6Dominant | Declining | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility | -0.19Weak finisher | Steady |
| highway sixty one | -0.04 · #6Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -4.4Below field | Stable | Similar | 0/8 · LowNone | -0.09Neutral | Quiet |
| vervain | -0.01 · #5Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +6.6Dominant | Declining | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility | 0.14Finishes well | Steady |
| gallo dell cielo | 0.32 · #2Possible leader | Faces pace burn | No recent class line | +0.6Competitive | Improving | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Form, Trip | 0.15Finishes well | Steady |
| fine print | -0.05 · #8Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +5.6Strong | Declining | Stronger | 2/8 · FairAbility | -0.05Neutral | Steady |
| bynx | -0.05 · #9Hold-up | Pace to aim at | No recent class line | +2.6Competitive | Improving | Stronger | 5/8 · StrongAbility, Shape, Form, Trip | 0.14Finishes well | Quiet |
| fire coral | 0.25 · #3Possible leader | Faces pace burn | No recent class line | -3.4Below field | Improving | Stronger | 1/8 · FairForm | -0.12Neutral | Steady |
| bhean saibhre | -0.09 · #10Hold-up | Pace to aim at | No recent class line | +0.6Competitive | Declining | Stronger | 3/8 · LiveAbility, Shape | -0.21Weak finisher | Quiet |
| synchronize | -0.10 · #11Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | -8.4Below field | Declining | Similar | 0/8 · LowNone | 0.10Finishes well | Quiet |
| kings gesture | -0.05 · #7Unclear | Neutral setup | No recent class line | +0.6Competitive | Declining | Similar | 1/8 · FairAbility | -0.52Weak finisher | Quiet |
| lariat | 0.33 · #1Prominent | Stalking hot pace | No recent class line | -9.4Below field | Declining | Stronger | 2/8 · FairShape | -0.28Weak finisher | Quiet |
Front and finish retain the existing continuous scores; Threat remains the additive score out of eight.
Draw × pace research
Tramore 2m draw and tactical fit
Historical performance relative to BSP expectation—not raw win percentage.
Insufficient evidence · 0 races
Going: Yielding11 runnersTurfStalls: Not supplied
LowA/E —0 runners
MiddleA/E —0 runners
HighA/E —0 runners
Research caveat: A/E is actual versus BSP-expected wins. Numeric low/high is not called physical inside/outside without historical stalls-position coverage.
Trading view · previous-race Betfair behaviour
Historical market profile
How each runner was priced and traded in earlier races—no active market feed required.
Complete · 11 of 11 experienced runners
Archive coverage
11 of 11 runners
419 earlier WIN races matched
lariat · pre-off
Steamed 35 · Stable 11 · Drifted 40
86 usable 15-minute-to-BSP paths
lariat · in-play support
10%: 58 runs · 67%
25%: 45 runs · 52% · 50%: 24 runs · 28%
Pre-off: 15 minutes before the scheduled off versus BSP. Two or more Betfair ticks determines steamed or drifted. In play: frequency that the lowest price became at least 10%, 25% or 50% shorter than BSP.
| Runner | Runs | BSP market position | Last BSP | Pre-off movement | In-play support | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| god of thunder | 57 | Average 6.7 Last 3 / 8 | 6.59 | Steamed 21 · Stable 5 · Drifted 24 (50 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 31 runs · 62% 25% shorter: 20 runs · 40% 50% shorter: 11 runs · 22% | Established2026-08-06 · Sligo |
| highway sixty one | 19 | Average 8.6 Last 3 / 15 | 7.54 | Steamed 2 · Stable 4 · Drifted 12 (18 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 10 runs · 59% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 35% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 18% | Established2026-07-15 · Killarney |
| vervain | 16 | Average 8.5 Last 2 / 10 | 4.41 | Steamed 2 · Stable 1 · Drifted 11 (14 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 5 runs · 36% 25% shorter: 2 runs · 14% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 14% | Established2026-08-07 · Gowran Park |
| gallo dell cielo | 26 | Average 5.8 Last 2 / 10 | 7.00 | Steamed 5 · Stable 7 · Drifted 12 (24 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 9 runs · 39% 25% shorter: 8 runs · 35% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 22% | Established2026-02-11 · Dundalk |
| fine print | 36 | Average 7.4 Last 13 / 15 | 36.68 | Steamed 9 · Stable 3 · Drifted 21 (33 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 19 runs · 59% 25% shorter: 15 runs · 47% 50% shorter: 6 runs · 19% | Established2026-07-12 · Sligo |
| bynx | 68 | Average 6.7 Last 7 / 12 | 13.00 | Steamed 14 · Stable 14 · Drifted 31 (59 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 33 runs · 56% 25% shorter: 22 runs · 37% 50% shorter: 13 runs · 22% | Established2026-07-07 · Tramore |
| fire coral | 38 | Average 6.9 Last 1 / 14 | 5.10 | Steamed 11 · Stable 8 · Drifted 13 (32 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 19 runs · 61% 25% shorter: 10 runs · 32% 50% shorter: 5 runs · 16% | Established2026-07-23 · Wexford |
| bhean saibhre | 30 | Average 6.2 Last 6 / 9 | 12.74 | Steamed 11 · Stable 4 · Drifted 9 (24 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 12 runs · 55% 25% shorter: 7 runs · 32% 50% shorter: 7 runs · 32% | Established2026-07-21 · Ballinrobe |
| synchronize | 22 | Average 8.5 Last 1 / 12 | 5.60 | Steamed 7 · Stable 3 · Drifted 8 (18 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 9 runs · 50% 25% shorter: 6 runs · 33% 50% shorter: 2 runs · 11% | Established2026-07-07 · Tramore |
| kings gesture | 9 | Average 7.9 Last — | — | Steamed 5 · Stable 0 · Drifted 2 (7 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 4 runs · 57% 25% shorter: 4 runs · 57% 50% shorter: 3 runs · 43% | Established2026-08-05 · Sligo |
| lariat | 98 | Average 7.2 Last 7 / 16 | 15.59 | Steamed 35 · Stable 11 · Drifted 40 (86 usable runs) | 10% shorter: 58 runs · 67% 25% shorter: 45 runs · 52% 50% shorter: 24 runs · 28% | Established2026-07-24 · Kilbeggan |
Projected pace map
Original tactical view retained
Lead
lariatPressure
gallo dell cielofire coralTracking
lariatMidfield
god of thunderhighway sixty onevervainfine printsynchronizekings gestureClosers
vervaingallo dell cielobynxsynchronizeRunner evidence
Prediction remains separate from reasons and reliability.
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +8.6
Recent
Declining
Trend -16
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Weak
C 0/0 · D 0/5 · G 0/4
Pace
Unclear
Front 0.15 · Finish -0.19
Connections
Steady
Denis Gerard Hogan · Daniel King
Draw
Middle · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
57 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.7
Ability
Below field
OR edge -4.4
Recent
Stable
Trend -0
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/2 · D 0/1 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.04 · Finish -0.09
Connections
Quiet
L Young · Gary Carroll
Draw
Low · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
19 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.6
Ability
Dominant
OR edge +6.6
Recent
Declining
Trend -8
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/0 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.01 · Finish 0.14
Connections
Steady
David Harry Kelly · Jimmy Dalton(7)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
16 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.5
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.6
Recent
Improving
Trend 12
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 0/0 · D 1/2 · G 0/1
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.32 · Finish 0.15
Connections
Steady
Patrick J Flynn · Robyn Donaghue-Leahy(7)
Draw
Low · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
26 runs
Avg BSP rank 5.8
Ability
Strong
OR edge +5.6
Recent
Declining
Trend -4
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/2 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.05 · Finish -0.05
Connections
Steady
John C Mcconnell · Sam Coen(5)
Draw
Middle · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
36 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.4
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +2.6
Recent
Improving
Trend 32
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Strong
C 3/8 · D 2/15 · G 0/11
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.05 · Finish 0.14
Connections
Quiet
Martin Hassett · Ben Coen
Draw
Low · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
68 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.7
Ability
Below field
OR edge -3.4
Recent
Improving
Trend 7
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/1 · D 0/3 · G 0/4
Pace
Possible leader
Front 0.25 · Finish -0.12
Connections
Steady
S Curling · Scott Mccullagh
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
38 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.9
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.6
Recent
Declining
Trend -32
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Weak
C 0/0 · D 0/6 · G 0/2
Pace
Hold-up
Front -0.09 · Finish -0.21
Connections
Quiet
Aidan Anthony Howard · Nicola Burns(5)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
30 runs
Avg BSP rank 6.2
Ability
Below field
OR edge -8.4
Recent
Declining
Trend -10
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Weak
C 0/3 · D 0/4 · G 0/1
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.10 · Finish 0.10
Connections
Quiet
J Morrison · Julian Pietropaolo(7)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
22 runs
Avg BSP rank 8.5
Ability
Competitive
OR edge +0.6
Recent
Declining
Trend -21
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Unknown
C 0/0 · D 0/0 · G 0/0
Pace
Unclear
Front -0.05 · Finish -0.52
Connections
Quiet
Michael Paul Ryan · Reese Holohan(7)
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
9 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.9
Ability
Below field
OR edge -9.4
Recent
Declining
Trend -42
Trajectory
No class data
No recent class line
Conditions
Weak
C 0/1 · D 0/6 · G 0/4
Pace
Prominent
Front 0.33 · Finish -0.28
Connections
Quiet
Liam P Cusack · Robbie Colgan
Draw
High · limited
0 matched runners
Historical market
98 runs
Avg BSP rank 7.2